Notre Dame lost a game. It probably lost its College Football Playoff hopes. It did not, though, lose all meaning to its season.
A defeat and a playoff miss were likely outcomes heading into the season. The first four games before last week’s loss to Cincinnati were full of warning signs of inevitable fallibility.
The Irish entered that game with more sacks allowed than any team except Akron and two talented running backs averaging less than 4.0 yards per rush. A passing attack that must be nearly flawless each game was far from it in three straight outings.
Heavily one-dimensional teams don’t go 12-0. Evidence Notre Dame could find even passable offensive line play to pose a steady rushing threat was scarce. Same with proof the passing operation could slice up a defense every week like it did to Florida State in the opener.
Sure enough, Notre Dame took a loss. Like most expected. With a schedule that has no other opportunities against currently ranked teams, the playoff is a long shot. As expected. No playoff means no national title – the standard to which Notre Dame measures itself.
But the rest of the season is not analogous to a baseball team playing out the string after tearing down its roster at the trade deadline. Notre Dame post-Cincinnati is not the 2021 Chicago Cubs post-selloff.
“We have a team that we feel can win the rest of its games,” head coach Brian Kelly said.
An 11-1 or 10-2 season that puts the Irish in a New Year’s Six bowl game remains a successful outcome. It’s a good ending for a team that had meaningful personnel losses at critical positions and patched a couple of them with short-term hopeful fixes. It would present Notre Dame with a chance to end the major bowl game skid that stretches back to 1993.
That losing streak is an unwelcome rain cloud over the program’s head it can disperse with a strong finish.
This week’s game at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network) is a critical one for setting a clearer course toward the New Year’s Six. The Hokies (3-1) aren’t overly impressive and have their own offensive problems, but facing a top-30 Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) defense in a rowdy atmosphere is a tricky situation in which to 1) rebound from a loss, and 2) sort out a quarterback conundrum.
In a way, it feels like the Irish’s late September 2018 trip to Wake Forest. No, Notre Dame hadn’t lost a game at that point and wasn’t heading into a raucous stadium. But its offense was clearly problematic and lacked an identity. It left with a 56-27 win, a path forward at quarterback and a heightened feeling of sustainability.
This year’s team could use those things.
The margin in this one will likely be closer, but if Notre Dame can head back to South Bend with similar takeaways as that day, it would feel like a season-altering game for the better.
2. Average offenses
Envisioning Notre Dame scoring a lot of points this weekend takes a hearty dose of optimism and hope.
The run game looks like a lost cause. Starting sophomore Drew Pyne at quarterback feels like the best path forward because of his mobility and moxie, but after about four combined quarters of action, he’s still far from a bankable asset as a passer. Graduate student Jack Coan’s experience in a game like this one is valuable, but he’s not a scrambler and hasn’t thrown the ball well enough in four games since his impressive debut to make up for it.
All told, this isn’t a situation that lends itself to putting stress on a good defense.
The same can be said of Virginia Tech, though.
Quarterback Braxton Burmeister is mobile, but lacks top-end arm strength and is just 6-of-17 on throws that travel at least 20 yards downfield. The Hokies’ offensive line ranks 107th in sack rate (8.8 percent) and 100th in rushing opportunity rate. Overall, they’re 104th in yards per play at 5.02 — three spots behind Notre Dame — and scored just two offensive touchdowns against an FCS team last time out.
These matchups that feel like a wash often come down to individual talent and a couple game-shifting plays. This game seems like a spot where junior safety Kyle Hamilton or sophomore tight end Michael Mayer, assuming he plays, show up in a big moment.
3. A change in 12 personnel
In the fourth quarter of its fifth game, a Notre Dame quarterback targeted a tight end other than Mayer for the first time this year.
To call it a target is generous. Pyne threw the ball at No. 2 tight end George Takacs’ feet when scrambling.
Notre Dame’s non-Mayer tight ends had 39 targets in 2020. They have one this year. This isn’t to say throwing to Takacs or freshman Mitchell Evans more often is a remedy for a struggling offense, but rather to point out the shift in how the No. 2 tight end is used.
It’s partially due to personnel. The No. 2 tight end averaged 16.7 catches per year from 2018-20 because the players in that role were eventual Day 2 NFL Draft picks Cole Kmet and Tommy Tremble. Throwing to future pros is wise.
Takacs isn’t held in that regard, though he’s used a bit differently. He has blocked on 65.8 percent of his snaps, which is a slight increase from Tremble’s 60.8 percent last year. But he has played 25 pass-blocking snaps through five games. Tremble pass blocked 29 times in two seasons.
Notre Dame used 12 personnel (two running backs, one tight end) last year primarily to bludgeon opponents on the ground and sometimes throw play action passes.
Now, it’s a max protection set more often – and out of need. Still, it would help to have a receiving threat that defenses have to respect. Sophomore Kevin Bauman impressed as a receiver in fall camp. He could get a look when he returns from a broken leg, perhaps as soon as late October.
4. A heavy workload
When a late-game drive goes as poorly as Cincinnati’s last touchdown march did for Notre Dame junior linebacker JD Bertrand, it’s hard not to wonder about fatigue. Bertrand had played every snap until that drive (and played every snap of the game). His 354 snaps this year are second only to Hamilton (362).
After the injuries at Will linebacker to junior Marist Liufau and senior Shayne Simon, Notre Dame has to play Bertrand every snap. Freshman Prince Kollie is the only backup option. When asked about the situation Thursday, Kelly didn't specifically bring up Kollie as a fix.
Notre Dame shouldn’t put Kollie out there if he’s not yet ready, but the need for a 1B (to use a Marcus Freeman term) behind Bertrand is becoming more evident. The Irish have 1As and 1Bs at Mike linebacker with graduate student Drew White and senior Bo Bauer. Same applies at rover, with junior Jack Kiser and graduate student Isaiah Pryor.
Bertrand, meanwhile, is presently 1A through 1Z at Will linebacker.
“This is an issue that needs to continue to be worked at, and we’re at it,” Kelly said. “We realize it and we’re trying to come up with better solutions.”
5. Red-zone woes
Notre Dame ranked 85th in red zone possession touchdown percentage last season. Red-zone efficiency was a clear problem, but the percentages were skewed a little bit by a few game-ending, clock-milking drives where the Irish reached the red zone but weren’t trying to score.
This year, Notre Dame is 92nd in red zone touchdown rate (54.55 percent) with zero such clock-bleeding or kneel-down possessions. It has thrown the ball passably inside the 20: Irish quarterbacks are 8-of-11 for 56 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. They have been sacked twice.
The red-zone rushing numbers for Notre Dame running backs are unsightly, though: 15 carries, 18 yards, two touchdowns, five stuffs and a fumble. A defender hit them at or behind the line of scrimmage on 11 of those carries. Junior running back Kyren Williams has nine carries for three yards, with five stuffs.
The Irish have had problems running the ball no matter the field position, but the red-zone futility is on another level.
Perhaps the red zone is the best spot to use freshman quarterback Tyler Buchner — if Notre Dame is committed to keeping him involved in the offense. He won’t be the short-yardage machine Oklahoma’s old Blake Bell “Belldozer” package was, but the change of pace and run-game boost Buchner brings could help a stuck-in-neutral red zone offense.
If so, offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has to put more passing plays on the call sheet for Buchner. He has handed off or run himself on 27 of his 35 snaps. It’s not hard for a defense to guess what’s likely coming. But eventually, that run tendency ought to open up the passing reads on the RPOs Rees has called with Buchner in the game.
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