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Friday Five: Notre Dame And The Latest Wave Of Conference Realignment

To best illustrate college athletics’ current state, picture the immediate aftermath of an earthquake.

That tremor was Texas and Oklahoma’s sudden sprint to the SEC. Its epicenter hit the remaining Big 12 members, whose seemingly sturdy buildings are now in pieces with no apparent ability to restore them as they were. Other teams and leagues sit on the periphery of the damage, fortunate to have missed it but wondering if they ought to be proactive to prevent a future direct hit from an aftershock.

Then there’s Notre Dame and director of athletics Jack Swarbrick — far from the chaos of lawyers, uncertain futures and cease and desist orders to ESPN.

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish director of athletics Jack Swarbrick
Notre Dame and director of athletics Jack Swarbrick still have a strong desire to remain independent. (Robert Franklin/AP)

As the SEC ushers in the next wave of conference realignment, Notre Dame is sitting contently as an independent without worry of another conference sideswiping its own. Notre Dame still values independence, even after a year in the ACC. The proposed College Football Playoff expansion to 12 teams Swarbrick helped design is fuel for it.

The short answer to the “what does the SEC’s expansion mean for Notre Dame” question is, simply, not much. ESPN’s David Hale wrote an insightful Twitter thread on the topic a few days ago that’s worth a read.

It’s still an answer worth flushing out, though. Will Notre Dame view the sacrifices it makes for independence any differently in light of the SEC getting even richer and Big Ten’s upcoming new media contract? Will the ACC – Notre Dame’s only conference option until 2035 – be more aggressive in chasing it as a full-time member?

2. The Sacrifices For Independence

We know Notre Dame makes less money as an independent than it would as a conference member. Its NBC contract pays about $15 million per year. The ACC gave Notre Dame $10.8 million in 2019-20, according to the conference’s tax filings. That’s $26 million, which is $6 million shy of the $32.3 million average payout to the ACC’s 14 full-time members.

Basically, $6 million is the price of independence. It’s not a needle-mover for Notre Dame. Especially not with new media venture Fighting Irish TV’s early success. If the ACC can make Notre Dame’s cost of being an independent rise, then the Irish might have something to consider.

The thing is, though, the ACC doesn’t seem to have any options to do that. West Virginia has reportedly made itself available, and in a few ways, has some appeal. The Mountaineers have been competent in football. They would strengthen a proud basketball league. They’re in the geographical footprint and old rivalries with current ACC teams.

But is West Virginia likely to make the per-school distribution increase? Probably not. The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel outlined the stark difference between television ratings of Big 12 games featuring Texas or Oklahoma and games with neither. The latter averaged fewer than 1 million viewers.

Realignment and viewership are only tied so much to on-field results. The calculus for expansion is simple. This isn’t about new TV markets and cable boxes anymore, but rather who will bring eyeballs and ratings. It’s also not about creating a larger total revenue pie, but increasing the size of the individual pieces. If an expansion candidate does not do the latter, that school becomes a harder sell.

And therein harder to entice Notre Dame and be aggressive in pursuing it.

3. The ACC’s Best Chance?

The ACC understands realistic expansion candidates that fulfill the criteria start and end with Notre Dame. The league would add the Irish immediately if it could. No other option could appreciably grow the individual revenue slices, if they grow at all.

The best chance to raise its appeal and Notre Dame’s independence cost might be through another channel.

The recent turbulence has reportedly threatened to push back CFP expansion. Could ESPN – which owns the ACC’s TV rights through 2036 – go to the ACC and promise it a new contract with more money if the ACC votes to push expansion through sooner, gets ESPN an extension for the CFP media rights and prevents the CFP from hitting the open market?

Even if that’s the case, independence will make sense for Notre Dame if it has access to the CFP, a home for its other sports and a stable TV deal. The only one of those three that has changed recently is the first – and for the better. It would talk one heck of a monetary shift for the ACC to make the Irish budge.

Life as an independent seems feasible for Notre Dame in this new college football landscape. We’ll see if the future confirms it.

4. Realignment As A Whole

Nothing gets college football fans at every level buzzing more than conference realignment and the idea of what could happen. Message boards and Twitter fill up with endless rumors, propositions, questions, excitement and concern.

It’s nothing if not one big emotional ride.

But it’s also a bummer for fans.

Realignment tears up rivalries, history, regional identities and silly trophies at the expense of the Power Five’s constant desire to get more money and outfox each other. Those matter to fans. It feels like the sport’s decision-makers are preying on college football fans’ undying loyalty to their teams and the expectation they will watch no matter the opponent or league.

I assume Oklahoma State and TCU fans, for example, will probably still pack stadiums, bleed their team colors and follow fervently — even if the conference schedule contains Memphis and Cincinnati instead of Texas and Oklahoma. But it’s going to feel different, and perhaps emptier.

I’d be lying if I wasn’t excited by yearly Oklahoma vs. Georgia games, Texas vs. Alabama meetings, LSU-Oklahoma and so on. I would also be remiss not to acknowledge the downside and some of the charm that’s lost.

5. Xavier Booker

On to basketball.

I saw Indianapolis Cathedral’s Xavier Booker — Notre Dame’s first 2023 forward offer — play last weekend with his AAU team. He is Rivals’ No. 2 in Indiana and No. 35 overall player in the 2023 class.

I left intrigued after two viewings. First, he’s still raw and early in his development. It sometimes seems as if he’s at a yellow traffic light. As it was put to me by one observer: “He’s still a puppy.” But overall, Booker is a bouncy 6-10 forward with guard skills. There’s a lot of upside.

Right now, he’s not much of a post player. He doesn’t look to post up or score with his back to the basket. He’s still productive and scored at least 20 points in both games I watched. Most of those were on put-backs, dump-offs or drives. He’s a capable shooter who made three three-pointers in the second game I saw. He rim-runs well.

Booker needs to add weight to battle opponents for rebounds and become a post threat, but his long arms and leaping ability allow him to snatch the ball out of the air with ease. He’s doesn’t love contact or seek it out at this stage.

I also liked Booker’s passing feel. On the first possession I saw, he made an extra pass in transition to a teammate for a layup. He even drove from the baseline and kicked out to a shooter a couple times. He’s an aggressive outlet passer. A couple times, he tried to make a play that wasn’t there, but it’s better to see that mindset than a big man who doesn’t look to pass at all.

Notre Dame and associate head coach Anthony Solomon were wise to hop in the mix for Booker early. He took a visit on Tuesday. The Irish don’t often pry in-state players when Indiana, Purdue and Louisville are involved. Current freshman Blake Wesley is an exception. Notre Dame would love if Booker became one too.

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