Friday Five: Bold Predictions For Notre Dame’s 2021 Season
Let’s get spicy.
Just because the floor feels high for Notre Dame’s 2021 outlook and general operation doesn’t mean bold predictions are impossible to make.
In fact, the plentiful turnover at key positions lends itself well to driving the hype bus for a certain player and drumming up intrepid prognostications.
I have way more than five bold predictions, but in sticking with the column name, I capped it there. There are byproducts of these five main ones — sub-predictions, I suppose — that I included.
1. Michael Mayer Triples His Touchdown Output
No, it’s not the tenfold increase Michael Mayer (half) jokingly predicted earlier this month, but six touchdowns is still a significant total for a tight end. For one, it’s the Notre Dame single-season record at the position.
In each of the last four full seasons (2016-20), six receiving touchdowns would rank in the top 10 among Football Bowl Subdivision tight ends. Mayer is undeniably one of the 10 best and most talented tight ends in the country. That he caught just two touchdowns on 42 receptions was a poor look for Notre Dame’s offense and a testament to its red-zone sputtering last year.
Notre Dame appears to have more weapons around Mayer that can stress a defense and a quarterback whose accuracy has stood out in fall camp. It should amount to a bump in favorable matchups for Mayer and increased red-zone efficiency. An opponent can’t bracket Mayer without worrying about getting exposed elsewhere. Mayer’s yards-after-catch ability isn’t going anywhere either.
Speaking of those other weapons: Though I’m predicting a bump in touchdown receptions for Mayer, I see senior wide receiver Kevin Austin Jr. leading the team in that category. He’s healthy and has played as advertised in practice viewings. Those two will be a reason quarterback Jack Coan throws for at least 25 touchdowns.
2. A Cornerback Will Reach Double-Digits In Passes Broken Up
Remarkably, Notre Dame hasn’t had a corner bat down at least 10 passes or pick off multiple throws since 2018. The Irish’s corners have held up fine overall the last two years, but plays on the ball are closer to intermittent than frequent.
In comes coordinator Marcus Freeman, whose Cincinnati defenses put cornerbacks in lots of man coverage when compared to predecessor Clark Lea. Freeman has not only said Notre Dame’s corners will play man, but predicted they will excel in it.
We’ll see on the latter, but junior boundary corner Cam Hart’s ball skills and the time he will spend one-on-one should lead to more hands on footballs. He’s my choice to reach double-digits in passes broken up.
All told, the outlook at cornerback feels boom or bust. An increase in plays on the ball will help Notre Dame remain a premier havoc-creating unit, but I see the Irish’s pass defense finishing around its 2020 level in yards per attempt allowed (7.1, 47th nationally) because it will surrender some more big plays.
I’m not sure Notre Dame has a shutdown corner like Freeman did at Cincinnati with Ahmad Gardner, who rarely was beat in coverage. And in USC and North Carolina, there are two potent passing offenses on the schedule (another sub-prediction: Notre Dame loses one of those games and sees its home winning streak end). A third high-powered attack that’s less obvious now will probably emerge, too.
3. Kyren Williams And Chris Tyree Will Fall Short Of 30 Total Touches Per Game
We’ve heard plenty about Notre Dame’s plan to add even more work for its two star running backs — for good reason. This is the most talented and explosive running back group of the Brian Kelly era. The Irish have two players who are skilled runners and receivers. They will be heavily involved.
I’m a bit skeptical of how much offensive coordinator Tommy Rees can increase their workload, though.
Williams and Tyree averaged 27.3 total touches per game last season. That’s the second-highest of any Notre Dame running back tandem since 2010. Only the 2011 duo of Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray (28 combined touches per game) was higher.
The next-closest season to 2020 in running back involvement was 2012 (26.5 touches per game for the top two) followed by 2015 (23.5). No other year was over 22.
Not only was Williams and Tyree’s workload a departure from the norm, it was an extreme.
I think the 2021 number goes up from 27.3, but falls short of 30 per game. With Mayer and a group of receivers that has impressed in training camp, Notre Dame has several other players it wants to involve as well. Mayer and Austin will be staples. Senior wide receiver Braden Lenzy looks like he could be, too. There are only so many touches to go around in an offense that won’t run 80-plus plays per game.
Notre Dame should be OK with just a minor increase in Williams and Tyree’s touches if it means the receivers and tight ends are consistent threats. Fall camp has offered some optimism on that front.
4. Rylie Mills Posts One Of The Two Highest Pressure Rates Among Defensive Linemen
Whew, what a camp the sophomore defensive tackle has had. Mills dominated guards and tackles in Notre Dame’s Aug. 19 open practice, and that wasn’t an outlier performance.
The 6-5, 283-pound Mills is powerful enough to beat guards, slippery enough to shoot gaps and fast enough to whip a tackle off the edge. He was visible with a zoomed-in view in 141 snaps as a freshman last year. He was impossible to miss this month.
Mills will play three-technique tackle in four-man fronts and kick outside to the “big end” position in three-down alignments. He’s likely a sub-package staple in either alignment. Fifteen to 20 snaps per game feels like a reasonable workload. That’s around 230 in a 13-game season.
If this month is any indication, Mills can push 20 quarterback pressures as a rotation player. If he plays 230 total snaps, about 150 should be pass-rush opportunities. I think he can reach 20 pressures, and if so, that’s a 13.3 percent pressure rate (pressures divided by pass rush snaps). I suspect that will be higher than any interior lineman and starting end Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa.
Picking Mills to reach those heights is not a prediction Jayson Ademilola will be, in Kurt Hinish’s words, Wally Pipped. Ademilola is still the No. 1 option at three-technique, has provided starter-quality play the last two seasons and produced the two best games of his career against Clemson and Alabama to end 2020. I suspect he finishes in the top five among Irish defensive linemen in pressure rate.
5. Blake Fisher Will Be A Freshman All-American
There is usually a Power Five freshman offensive tackle or two who starts right away and not only avoids disaster, but is a positive for his offense. Northwestern left tackle Peter Skoronski was the Wildcats’ best offensive lineman last year as a true freshman. Oregon’s Penei Sewell (2018) and Georgia’s Andrew Thomas (2017) were starting tackles as first-year players.
I’m not going to predict yet that Fisher becomes a top-10 pick like Sewell or Thomas, but after watching his spring season and fall camp, he’s good enough to put forth an impressive freshman season. He’s a former five-star recruit with similar recruiting pedigree to those three.
When Fisher began taking first-team reps at left tackle in the spring, it felt like a statement about Notre Dame’s other options there. His status as the starter now validates that he’s not only the best option, but can help Notre Dame’s offense function. At 6-6 and 335 pounds, he’s physically ready and Notre Dame’s biggest offensive lineman. His awareness and assignment-sound play stand out.
“From a pass-rush standpoint, he’s hard to get around,” Kelly said. “He’s long, he moves his feet well, he’s strong, you can’t bull-rush him, he can get his hands on you.”
Here’s how Pro Football Focus graded Skoronski, Sewell and Thomas as freshmen.
• Skoronski (LT): two sacks, four hits, 11 pressures in nine starts. Overall grade 81.4, run-blocking grade 80.9, pass-blocking grade 71.0.
• Sewell (LT): one sack, one hit, six hurries in seven starts. Overall grade 84.0, run-blocking grade 80.1, pass-blocking grade 78.7.
• Thomas (RT): one sack, four hits, 12 hurries in 13 starts. Overall grade 68.4, run-blocking grade 63.8, pass-blocking grade 76.7.
Expecting Fisher to produce a freshman season like Sewell’s is probably asking too much. But the other two don’t feel completely far-fetched. Even within strong overall seasons, Thomas and Skoronski still allowed more than a pressure per game and had one rough outing. There will be growing pains. They also had standout games and kept the sack and hit totals low.
I’ll predict Fisher produces a high 70s overall grade with fewer than three sacks and fewer than 20 pressures allowed.
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