Friday Five: An ideal Year 1 impact from the 2021 class
Brian Kelly’s more liberal usage of freshman this year isn’t rooted in framing this retooling season as an advance start on 2022.
Yes, that would be a positive byproduct, but Kelly wanted them on the field now because they could help now. In some cases, it was because they were too good to keep off the field. In others, Notre Dame needed them in an injury-induced bind. Either way, activating them now is a boost for 2021 and 2022.
Eleven games into the year, Notre Dame has taken the redshirt off nine freshmen: quarterback Tyler Buchner, running back Logan Diggs, running back Audric Estime, wide receiver Deion Colzie, wide receiver Lorenzo Styles, tight end Mitchell Evans, tackle Joe Alt, defensive end Kahanu Kia and linebacker Prince Kollie. Offensive tackle Blake Fisher was the opening day starter at left tackle, suffered a likely season-ending meniscus injury and opened the door for Alt.
“We made the decision we weren’t going to be counting games as much when we went into camp,” Kelly said. “The thought process of counting games – the four games – was ‘You have to count games.” This year was like, ‘We’re not counting. We have to play them.’ The process was, ‘Let’s play them, let’s develop them, let’s get them ready.’ Wherever they are in that continuum, let’s not worry about the games.
“Some of them, when we get to that point, we’ll decide whether we go past that threshold. Others, don’t worry about it, just play them. We’ve pulled back on some, and others, we’ve said, ‘Keep playing because they can impact our football team.’”
The most notable “pulled back” players are two defensive backs. Safety Justin Walters hasn’t played since appearing in his fourth game Oct. 2. Cornerback Philip Riley is at three games and has played just once since Sept. 18.
“We were able to have a pretty good idea in staff meetings of players we were targeting as ready to play,” Kelly said.
Notre Dame sitting at 10-1 with that many freshmen involved each week is a sign of a top-tier coaching job. The Irish have also used six players from their 2020 class who were barely involved last year in meaningful spots or weekly roles. The youth movement has put Notre Dame in better position for next Labor Day Weekend in Columbus, Ohio while also helping keep the current team in College Football Playoff contention all season.
Of those nine freshmen, only two are starters (Alt and Styles). Alt was option No. 4 at left tackle and likely doesn’t get a chance without Fisher’s injury, but he has stabilized a critical position. Styles slid into the starting lineup after Avery Davis’ Nov. 6 ACL tear.
Everyone else is either a complementary player, bit player or special teamer. Estime, for example, has played in 10 games but didn’t make his debut at running back until last weekend against Georgia Tech.
It feels safe to say Notre Dame wouldn’t be the No. 6 team in the CFP rankings on Nov. 26 if more freshmen were in starting roles. For as impactful as this 2021 haul looks like it could be, it’s not loaded with obvious three-and-done players or five-stars who step on the field and look like All-Americans right away. There’s a ceiling on the Year 1 potential of any such class.
It also feels like a sound assumption to say the Irish wouldn’t be 10-1 if not for the freshmen who look comfortable in their current roles while also displaying an enticing long-term ceiling. That’s an ideal mix for a freshman class. It provided help right away while also revealing several hits one year into its time on campus.
2. The lingering Big 12
If Notre Dame takes care of business at Stanford as expected, the Irish should be No. 5 in the CFP top 25 next week, with the Michigan-Ohio State loser likely falling behind them.
That leaves these four dominos left to fall over the next two weeks regarding their top four hopes:
• Alabama loses decisively to Georgia, dropping to 11-2.
• Cincinnati loses to Houston in the AAC title game.
• Everyone in the Big 12 finishes with two losses.
• Wisconsin wins the Big Ten.
Notre Dame will make it if three of those happen. It will be in strong position if two occur.
If just one happens, the Irish will endure an anxious Selection Sunday morning. The Big 12 producing a two-loss champion with chalk holding everywhere else won’t put Notre Dame in the top four. If the only domino to fall is Georgia handily beating Alabama, Wisconsin winning or Cincinnati losing, the Big 12 champion leaping Notre Dame is a real possibility.
No. 7 Oklahoma State (10-1) sits one spot behind Notre Dame and would own victories over No. 10 Oklahoma and No. 11 Baylor if it wins out. Oklahoma (10-1) slid up three spots thanks to some losses ahead of it and would beat Oklahoma State twice if it finishes 12-1. Both teams have more chances to add strong opening arguments to their résumé than Notre Dame, which has just 3-8 Stanford left.
Even though it doesn’t open a spot in the top four, Notre Dame fans should root hard for the Big 12 to cannibalize itself and take the Irish out of position to be sniped from behind.
3. Cain Madden
It took a little while, but graduate transfer quarterback Jack Coan is giving Notre Dame what it envisioned.
The Irish’s other grad transfer is quietly fulfilling expectations too. Perhaps quiet was the only way to do it, because when Cain Madden’s name was a loud topic in September, the conversation was not positive.
If a right guard is going unmentioned, it’s often because he’s doing his job. For the last six games, the Marshall import has provided the steadiness Notre Dame sought from a sixth-year senior.
“I’d say it’s more comfortable just being here, not having to live up to any expectations in his own mind, just going out and playing football,” Kelly said of Madden. “He has been incredibly effective in the past six, seven weeks. Just really solid. Maybe a little of that was coming in as an All-American trying to do a little too much, but he has been really solid in the past month and a half.”
Madden has allowed just three quarterback pressures since Oct. 9, all in one game (North Carolina). Pro Football Focus has given him a 74.3 run-blocking grade or better every week in that span, including two games as the Irish’s top-rated player in that area. Those grades aren’t final word, but they match the anecdotal evidence: Madden is creating running lanes a lot more often than he is allowing disruption.
4. The Mackey Award
Maybe it’s based on stats. Maybe it’s raw talent. Perhaps it’s importance to an offense. Or a combination of many things.
Whatever the criteria for determining the John Mackey Award finalists are, it’s hard to imagine three players putting forth better cases than Michael Mayer.
Want good stats? He leads Power Five tight ends in catches (55) and yards (663).
Raw talent? Watch him shed defenders at the line of scrimmage like he did to a poor Georgia Tech linebacker on his 52-yard touchdown or break tackles after the catch.
Importance? He’s Notre Dame’s leading receiver and within striking distance of the single-season reception and touchdown record by an Irish tight end.
Excluding him seems like a classic example of overthinking.
5. MBB: defensive progress undone
Notre Dame has held its first five opponents to 1.0 points per possession or lower. The Irish are allowing opponents to rebound just 18.8 percent of their missed shots, the fourth-best mark nationally. They’re holding opponents to 44.3 percent shooting on two-pointers. Only 27.3 percent of the shots against Notre Dame’s defense are three-pointers, the 13th-lowest volume in Division I.
If you knew before the season all of those would be true on Nov. 26, you might’ve predicted a 5-0 start for Notre Dame. A porous defense was Notre Dame’s primary undoing in 2020-21. Rebounding is also a rarely a strength. So far, it appears they have made meaningful progress in both areas.
And yet, the Irish are 3-2 and suffered a familiar loss to Texas A&M in their final Maui Invitational game Wednesday. They haven’t topped 1.01 points per possession in their last three Division I games.
It’s a disappointing start for a team full of seniors that finished 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency last season, 26th in turnover rate and 46th in three-point percentage last year. There were, though, extreme vacillations within those overall strong numbers.
It doesn’t seem Notre Dame has rid itself of that unpredictability and inconsistency despite another year together. If it can’t, an offseason with a defensive emphasis that is bringing good early returns will have been a waste.
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