Friday Five: A Notre Dame to the College Football Playoff rooting guide
Former Indianapolis Colts coach Jim Mora’s infamous press conference quip served as a fitting response to Notre Dame College Football Playoff talk following the first rankings release.
The next week’s refresh, with Notre Dame’s jump from No. 10 to 9, upgraded it from nonexistent to far-fetched.
Now, though, after a one-spot rise and another fallen domino, the 9-1 Irish are sitting at No. 8 in the CFP rankings with a path to the top four coming clearer into view. In fact, ESPN’s predictor gives them the third-best odds to reach the playoff.
Two games left against 3-7 opponents are all that stand in the way of Notre Dame finishing 11-1. That’s not enough on its own to trigger a four-spot leap. The Irish still need some help.
Here’s a look at the help to root for over the season’s final two weeks that could pave Notre Dame’s way into the playoff. It’s not quite the best-case scenario. That would be Notre Dame avoiding the No. 4 seed and a likely meeting with Georgia. Instead, I tried to map out the most realistic path.
1. Oregon loses
The No. 3 Ducks (9-1) are the Pac-12’s last remaining playoff hopeful and claim a win at No. 4 Ohio State. They do, though, have a trip to No. 24 Utah this week. As it stands, that’s also the likely Pac-12 Championship Game. An Oregon loss in Salt Lake City this weekend or in the presumed rematch draws the curtains on the Pac-12.
2. Ohio State wins its next two games
Here’s how to cut down two trees with one (scarlet and gray) chainsaw. The No. 4 Buckeyes (9-1) have two games left against teams currently above Notre Dame: No. 7 Michigan State (9-1) on Saturday and No. 6 Michigan (9-1) on Nov. 27. Ohio State victories in both would take out two teams in front of the Irish and give the Buckeyes the Big Ten East title.
3. Everyone in the Big 12 finishes with at least two losses
Cannibalization is the objective here from a Notre Dame standpoint. There are a few ways for the Big 12 to eat itself alive, but let’s focus on the most likely.
Every Big 12 team is behind Notre Dame after Oklahoma’s loss at Baylor last weekend. The 9-1 Sooners fell from No. 8 to 13, behind No. 9 Oklahoma State (9-1) and No. 11 Baylor (8-2).
Even though the Irish are ranked higher than all three, the Oklahoma schools have résumé-boosting games ahead. If either one makes it through the final three weeks without a blemish, it might pick up enough ammunition to leapfrog some teams who don’t have opportunities for enhancement — like Notre Dame.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play on Nov. 27. A Sooners win over 6-4 Iowa State this weekend and in Stillwater to end the regular season would set up a rematch in the Big 12 title game. In that case, one-loss Oklahoma would face two-loss Oklahoma State. If so, Irish fans become Cowboys supporters.
Oklahoma State wins over Texas Tech this week and over its rival Thanksgiving weekend, though, would put the Cowboys in the championship game against two-loss Baylor or two-loss Oklahoma. Notre Dame then roots for an Oklahoma State defeat.
4. Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
The idea of a two-loss non-conference champion making the playoff is a confounding one, but that’s a complaint for another day. By putting Alabama second, the committee left the door open for it to make the final four with a second loss.
The prior two sections operate under the assumption a two-loss Big 12 or Pac-12 champion wouldn’t filch a playoff spot. The Crimson Tide (9-1) will remain No. 2 if they beat No. 21 Arkansas (7-3) and Auburn (6-4) to clinch the SEC West and a meeting with Georgia in Atlanta. The No. 1 Bulldogs (10-0) are two unranked wins away from a perfect regular season.
It’s a matter of how the committee views a narrow defeat that’s nonetheless a second defeat. Is a close loss to the No. 1 team really cause for a three-spot drop? Is Alabama’s body of work good enough to overcome two losses? What if it’s a comfortable Georgia win? What about the idea that two losses are, well, two losses, no matter who they’re against?
We’ll see how the committee answers those questions Dec. 5 if Georgia takes down the Crimson Tide. What’s clear now is this: An Alabama win sends two SEC teams to the CFP. Root for an Alabama loss and the uncertainty.
5. Cincinnati loses to Houston in the AAC title game
You can make a case Notre Dame is better off going to the playoff with unbeaten Cincinnati (10-0, No. 5). You can also say the Irish should pull for a Bearcats loss to definitively remove them from consideration. This one has a lot of layers.
The latter would sink the Bearcats’ hopes, but also weaken Notre Dame’s only blemish and bring the head-to-head question to the forefront. The thing is, the committee disregarded head-to-head last week when it put Michigan over Michigan State just nine days after the Spartans beat the Wolverines. It has downplayed head-to-head results in the final rankings before.
On selection day, Notre Dame’s loss will be one of 12 data points and 13 for Cincinnati, which hasn’t exactly dominated lesser competition of late.
Still, two more wins (including one over 8-2 SMU) and a defeat at the hands of one-loss Houston in the AAC championship should keep the Bearcats in the top 10 or 12 while depriving their résumé of a conference title. From Notre Dame’s perspective, a loss to a top-10-ish team instead of a top-five one shouldn’t make an appreciable difference. Teams have reached the playoff with bigger eggs on their faces.
Bonus
If all five of the above scenarios happen, Notre Dame is in business. If four of the five occur, the Irish might still slide in. It depends on which four. Notre Dame and 13-0 Cincinnati could be the final two teams if the Pac-12 and Big 12 knock themselves out, Ohio State handles the Michigan schools and two-loss Alabama slides out of the top four.
More than anything, Notre Dame is rooting for losses ahead of it. But it’s also hoping some of its opponents finish strong and boost its own accomplishments. Let’s take a quick look at the best-case scenarios there. A couple of them are admittedly long shots.
Wisconsin wins the Big Ten
The 7-3 Badgers have won six in a row and are ranked No. 15. They’re Notre Dame’s best win and have the edge in the Big Ten West. A 9-4 Wisconsin team with a loss to Ohio State will remain in the top 25. A 10-3 Big Ten champion, though? That could be a top-10 victory for Notre Dame. You would feel slightly better about the Badgers’ chances if Michigan State were to beat Ohio State and win the East Division as its only one-loss team.
Virginia wins the ACC
The 6-4 Cavaliers control their path to the ACC title game and can put themselves in pole position in the Coastal Division by beating Pitt this weekend. If they do, they will likely meet No. 10 Wake Forest (9-1) in the ACC Championship Game. Win that, and it’s possible 9-4 ACC champ Virginia sneaks into the final rankings and gives Notre Dame another top-25 win.
Purdue wins out
Ohio State swept away the 6-4 Boilermakers, who fell from No. 19 to unranked. They have two games against sub-.500 teams left, though, and a manageable path to an 8-4 record that could include a pair of top-20 wins. Seems like a top 25-worthy résumé.
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