ESPN Releases FPI Projections For Notre Dame’s 2020 Season
One respected metrics-based prognostication sees Notre Dame’s streak of 10-win regular seasons halting at two years.
ESPN has released its first Football Power Index projections for the 2020 season for every college football team, and going by its game-by-game expected win percentages, it has Notre Dame ending the regular season 9-3.
All told, Notre Dame’s FPI is 15.4, which ranks No. 16 nationally.
Of those nine projected wins, most are expected to be largely stress-free. The Fighting Irish have at least a 75 percent chance to win eight games on their schedule.
Here is the game-by-game breakdown.
Aug. 29 vs. Navy in Dublin, Ireland
Opponent FPI: 2.5 (52nd)
The game seems increasingly unlikely to take place in Ireland, but wherever it is, Notre Dame will be heavily favored. Early betting lines have made the Irish 16.5-point favorites. Navy went 11-2 last year, but lost leading rusher and quarterback Malcolm Perry.
FPI projected win percentage: 82.3
Sept. 12 vs. Arkansas
Opponent FPI: 1.3 (59th)
Notre Dame’s home opener is an expected easy win. Early lines have set the line at Notre Dame minus-17.5. Arkansas was 2-10 last season and has a first-year head coach in Sam Pittman, who faced Notre Dame twice in the last three years as a Georgia assistant.
FPI projected win percentage: 90.3
Sept. 19 vs. Western Michigan
Opponent FPI: -5.4 (93rd)
This is Notre Dame’s lone guarantee game of the year. Western Michigan (7-6 in 2019) is getting $1.175 million to come to South Bend. The expected result is a convincing Irish win.
FPI projected win percentage: 94.4
Sept. 26 vs. Wake Forest at Charlotte, N.C.
Opponent FPI: 0.5 (65th)
The first of two straight neutral-site games for Notre Dame is a meeting with the Demon Deacons at Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium. Wake Forest was 8-5 in 2019, but lost quarterback Jamie Newman to a graduate transfer year at Georgia.
FPI projected win percentage: 85.4
Oct. 3 vs. Wisconsin at Green Bay, Wis.
Opponent FPI: 23.7 (4th)
The Badgers have a gaudy FPI ranking despite losing All-American running back Jonathan Taylor. They have won three of the last four Big Ten West titles and went 10-4 last season. Notre Dame’s projected four-game win streak to open the season ends here.
FPI projected win percentage: 26.5
Oct. 10 vs. Stanford
Opponent FPI: 8.9 (31st)
The FPI predicts a return to the mean for Stanford after a 4-8 season in 2019. In this game, though, it likes Notre Dame to win somewhat safely.
FPI projected win percentage: 76.6
Oct. 17 at Pittsburgh
Opponent FPI: 2.2 (56th)
This is Notre Dame’s first true road game of the year, and road games against Pittsburgh have been taut tripwire in seasons past. Here, FPI likes Notre Dame to win with a little more comfort. The Panthers went 8-5 in 2019.
FPI projected win percentage: 75.3
Oct. 31 vs. Duke
Opponent FPI: 1.2 (60th)
Notre Dame tore down Duke 38-7 in Durham, N.C., a year ago, one of seven Blue Devils losses. They bring in former Clemson backup quarterback Chase Brice as a graduate transfer, a move head coach David Cutcliffe hopes will inject some stability into a plodding offense.
FPI projected win percentage: 89
Nov. 7 vs. Clemson
Opponent FPI: 32.6 (1st)
Everyone’s most anticipated game of Notre Dame’s season and a 2018 College Football Playoff semifinal rematch. Clemson is the FPI’s top-rated team. The Tigers and junior quarterback Trevor Lawrence come to South Bend as favorites and in this projection, drop Notre Dame’s record to 7-2.
FPI projected win percentage: 13.3
Nov. 14 at Georgia Tech
Opponent FPI: 3.3 (50th)
This game will be played in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Georgia Tech, led by coach Geoff Collins, went 3-9 in its first year transitioning away from the triple option. The Yellow Jackets are expected to take a leap forward, but not enough to beat Notre Dame in FPI’s view.
FPI projected win percentage: 75.0
Nov. 21 vs. Louisville
Opponent FPI: 12.9 (20th)
A popular trap game pick. Coach Scott Satterfield inherited Bobby Petrino’s ruins and went 8-5 in 2019 with a second-place finish in the ACC Atlantic in his debut season. The Cardinals are a trendy preseason top 25 team that could sneak up on Notre Dame like Virginia Tech did last year. Notre Dame won 35-17 at Louisville in last year’s season opener.
FPI projected win percentage: 65.4
Nov. 28 at USC
Opponent FPI: 17.9 (13th)
USC was 8-5 a year ago, which didn’t undo the consternation surrounding coach Clay Helton. Below that, the Trojans were 7-2 in the Pac-12 and found stable quarterback play from freshman Kedon Slovis after he slid in after an injury to incumbent starter JT Daniels (who has since entered the transfer portal). Notre Dame has won three straight in the series, most recently a 30-27 victory last year in South Bend. FPI sees that streak ending.
FPI projected win percentage: 30.4
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