Chain Mail: Is Playing Clemson Minus Trevor Lawrence A No-Win Proposition?
No one can tell Notre Dame fans they’re not self-aware.
The loudest response on the Irish fan interwebs when Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s was ruled out for Saturday’s game at Notre Dame was one of disappointment. The idea behind it: Notre Dame would get no credit for beating Clemson minus Lawrence and be mocked even more if it lost.
Apparently, the Notre Dame faithful is just conditioned to their team never getting the benefit of the doubt and always needing to prove something to the greater college football audience. But is that an accurate or reasonable look at this specific situation, especially if Notre Dame wins? Is this game against a No. 1 team that had been discussed to exhaustion as the defining moment of the season really a lose-lose situation? BlueandGold.com’s Lou Somogyi and Patrick Engel discuss.
Patrick Engel: I don’t get this idea at all. Notre Dame has nothing to be sorry for if it beats this version of Clemson. It shouldn’t entertain anything about asterisks or tainted wins. It can’t control what happens with Clemson and its players who are hundreds of miles away.
Virus-related absences are part of this season, just like injuries are part of every season. Notre Dame can only play who shows up on the other sideline. And Clemson sure has a lot of talented players who will be on the field. Including, oh yeah, a five-star quarterback who was the No. 3 overall recruit. who threw for 342 yards and totaled three touchdowns in his first start.
Boston College didn’t nearly beat Clemson because quarterback issues arose for the Tigers. Short-term fill-in and long-term answer D.J. Uiagalelei isn’t Lawrence, which is to say he’s not one of college football’s very best quarterbacks of the last 15 years. There are a lot of good quarterbacks on great teams Notre Dame would’ve been proud to beat who never entered that tier.
Lou Somogyi: Brian Kelly knows the dominant theme this week is “can Notre Dame finally win ‘A Big One?’ during his reign after 10 years. Yet even if his Fighting Irish defeat the top-ranked Tigers, it likely will be somewhat mitigated by the absence of Lawrence, plus three other vital cogs on defense in lineman Tyler Davis, the anchor in the middle, and linebackers James Skalski and Mike Jones Jr.
What so often gets lost here is when you are a premier program like Clemson, these type of setbacks tend to galvanize them even more as a way of showing that this isn’t about one or two or three individuals, but a collective operation that thrives in these situations.
When Notre Dame was at the peak of its powers under Lou Holtz, the No. 1 versus No. 2 matchup at USC during the 1988 national title season saw Holtz send home his leading rusher (Tony Brooks) and leading receiver (Ricky Watters) because of repeated tardiness. Popular belief was that ND would be dead in the water on the road without them versus 10-0 USC — but the Irish instead came out more united than ever en route to a 27-10 win.
In many ways, Clemson has some house money to play with against the Irish. They know that even with a defeat the two teams are likely to meet again in the ACC Championship Game Dec. 19. From that perspective, the Tigers might be even more dangerous this weekend with an ability to play loose and free, whereas the weight is more on Notre Dame to take advantage of Clemson’s absences.
Patrick Engel: No doubt, Notre Dame enters Saturday with more to prove. But I still push back on the idea Lawrence’s absence mitigates the ability to prove big-game chops. If Notre Dame beats full-strength Clemson, it’s one of the biggest wins in the 133-year history of the program. If the Irish beat this iteration of Clemson, it’s…still the best win of the Kelly era.
Both of those sound like a pretty big deal to me.
To obsess over Clemson’s absences is to miss the point of what beating the Tigers means no matter who plays. Notre Dame fans want to see the Irish win this game more than any other one (regular season, at least) since it came on the schedule. Doesn’t avoiding an all-world quarterback make that an easier achievement?
I’m not saying you wish for Lawrence to be out. You’d like to see the best. But again, virus absences are reality for everyone. Clemson is still a top-tier opponent with an enviable roster even when you take out the presumed Heisman frontrunner and replace him with, um, merely, a very good quarterback. It has two regular-season losses since 2015, after all.
Plenty of teams have reached the playoff or won the title in recent years without that type of quarterback because they can play defense, have a powerful rushing operation and talented skill players. Clemson checks all of those boxes. Notre Dame has to deal with those elements too. The foundation doesn’t crumble without Lawrence.
Lou Somogyi: Part of the problem with this week’s game is the specter of a second meeting. A Notre Dame victory is reason for well-earned celebration. At the same time, there would still be a temporary sobering thought of, “We have to play these guys again, and it’s tough to vanquish a great team twice in one year.”
Some long-time fans might remember that No. 1 Miami was screaming for a rematch in the title game after falling to eventual national champ Notre Dame 31-30. No. 1 Florida State players immediately after the 31-24 loss at No. 2 Notre Dame in 1993 were lobbying for an instant rematch. Neither was going to happen. There was comfort in knowing the game had been played and a winner decided.
That’s not necessarily going to be the case with a win over Clemson.
But you can only control the here and now, and as Herm Edwards so succinctly pointed out, “YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!” Nobody knows what tomorrow brings, and if suddenly in the ACC title game a half-dozen top Notre Dame starters could not play, I doubt much empathy would be provided.
My favorite quote from Brian Kelly this week was a victory would not mean Notre Dame has “arrived.” And if Notre Dame loses, it doesn’t mean it can’t improve enough to challenge again.
Patrick Engel: Like you said, it’s hard to beat them twice. Which is yet another reason I don’t get the Notre Dame fan angst about Lawrence not playing today. With Lawrence, beating Clemson twice – or if you ask me, once – is a tall order. If he’s around in just one game, going 2-0 is a little more feasible. But it’d still be hard, because beating Clemson even once is hard.
For playoff résumé purposes, I think it’s more likely the selection committee gives Clemson a mulligan for a loss without Lawrence than slights a Notre Dame win over a Lawrence-less Clemson.
I promise you this: if Notre Dame wins Saturday, fans will be elated. And if it loses to Clemson with Lawrence, they’d still be up in arms drawing all sorts of conclusions. You wouldn’t feel better about a loss with Lawrence. So why feel worse about a win without him?
Lou Somogyi: My preseason prediction was 1) Notre Dame and Clemson would play twice and 2) it is feasible that both could wind up in the College Football Playoff (let’s play three!). For the latter to occur, the Fighting Irish have to win one of those two versus the Tigers, and hold serve elsewhere, which they will be favored to do.
If you assume Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State will reach the playoff, that fourth spot is wide open, and right now it’s there for the taking for Notre Dame if it can vanquish Clemson just once.
I don’t see either Georgia or Florida defeating Alabama in the SEC title game, which would give either the Bulldogs and Gators two losses. Oklahoma and Texas are out from the Big 12. Can Oklahoma State win out and have the street cred to get in with one loss? The Pac-12? With seven games? Cincinnati or BYU? Not if the Irish can get past Clemson once.
Lawrence or not, there is a lot riding on this game for the Irish, not the least of which is snapping an 11-game losing streak to teams ranked in the top five at the time of the game, dating back to 2005.
To get into the playoff, there also has to be a level of competitiveness demonstrated by Notre Dame in both contests, much like against Georgia the last two times where it came down to the final series. However, taking solace in coming close is something the Irish should be far past by now.
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