CFB Top 25: A Deeper Look
The third College Football Playoff Poll was released last night and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish remained in the No. 4 slot. Committee chairman Jeff Long continues to say that Notre Dame is in a solid position at the No. 4 spot, but he did note that the Big 12 teams continue to surge.
Here's a deeper look inside the CFB Poll:
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OPP. REC. - Record of all FBS opponents
W REC - Record of all FBS opponents that team has defeated
Top 25 - Record versus opponents in the CFB Top 25
+500 - Wins over opponents with a record above .500
SOS - Strength of Schedule
SOR - Strength of Record
GC - Game Control
The bolded and italicized numbers in the SOS, SOR and GC are the teams that rank in the Top 5 of that statistic. The bolded and italicized numbers in the W REC are teams that have wins over opponents with a combined winning record.
First, a look at where Notre Dame stands:
Notre Dame's SOS took a hit this weekend once 3-7 Wake Forest was added to the tally. Expect that to happen again next week after it plays Boston College. By the end of the season Notre Dame will jump back up after it plays Stanford.
Notre Dame ranks 5th in game control (GC) among Top 25 teams.
Notre Dame ranks 6th in strength of record (SOR) among all teams, including Top 25.
Notre Dame ranks 8th in strength of schedule (SOS) among Top 25 teams. Notre Dame ranks 4th in SOS among teams ranked in the Top 10.
IRISH OPPONENTS CONTINUE TO RISE
Much discussion was spent on Stanford (8-2) losing at home to Oregon this past weekend, which was perceived to be a major loss for the Irish. Stanford dropped, but the Cardinal are still ranked No. 11, which is a positive for Notre Dame. There is a chance that both teams could be ranked in the Top 10 next weekend when they meet.
Navy (8-1) beat SMU 55-14 and jumped up to the No. 16 spot in the rankings. Navy's SOR and GC help its resume, as does having a "good loss" to No. 4 Notre Dame and its win over No. 21 Memphis, who remained in the rankings despite dropping its second straight game. Navy going up to No. 16 is good for Notre Dame, for two key reasons. The first is it gives Notre Dame another win over a ranked opponent. The second is that Navy is now in a position that it can sustain a loss and still be ranked. Navy travels to Tulsa and No. 19 Houston the next weekends. If the Midshipmen can win both games - which will be very tough - it will find itself creeping up closer and closer to the Top 10, which would give the Irish a major boost.
Temple (8-2) dropped out of the rankings after losing to South Florida, but the Owls were replaced by USC (7-3), who enters at No. 24. Notre Dame needs the Trojans to beat No. 23 Oregon on the road this weekend, which will be a tough task. USC being in the Top 25 is key for Notre Dame. Instead of people talking about Notre Dame's top wins being over Navy and Temple - and let's be honest, it's always said in a condescending manner - Notre Dame's big wins are now over Navy and USC.
Pittsburgh (7-3) and Temple (8-2) are likely in the mix to be back in the rankings over the next couple of weeks, assuming they win out. Pittsburgh whipped Duke 31-13 on the road this past weekend, which was huge. The Panthers have games against Louisville and Miami left, so it has a chance at some recognizable wins. Temple hosts No. 25 Memphis this weekend, and a win over the Tigers could very well get the Owls back in the Top 25.
BIG 12 SURGE
After the rankings were released, committee chair Jeff Long said the committee was taking notice of the Big 12's improving resume. The Big 12 is seen as Notre Dame's biggest threat to staying in the Top 4, should it beat Boston College and Stanford. Of course, that resume is coming from the Big 12 teams beating each other, which happens this time of year. Oklahoma had a huge win over previously unbeaten Baylor, which jumped the Sooners up to the No. 7 spot. After struggling to beat 3-7 Iowa State, Oklahoma State only went up two spots and was almost jumped by the Sooners.
Oklahoma still has No. 18 TCU on the schedule and Oklahoma State plays Baylor this weekend. In two weeks, these two teams will face each other.
All four teams from the Big 12 that remain in the rankings have a schedule in which its opponents have a losing record. Oklahoma has the best chance at changing that over the next two weeks thanks to a non-conference schedule that included Tennessee (6-4) and Tulsa (5-5).
ESPN's David Pollack asked an interesting question last night, one that I am curios to know the answer to. Oklahoma beat Baylor last weekend and could beat TCU this weekend, but there is a chance TCU QB Trevone Boykin doesn't play. If that happens, will the Sooners get dinged a bit by two of its three best wins coming against opponents whose starting QB's were injured?
TWO TOP 10 MATCHUPS
The list of schools in contention will go down this weekend. No. 3 Ohio State hosts No. 9 Michigan State, and the loser is likely out of contention. Ohio State could remain in, but it would be hard for the Buckeyes to jump back in so late in the season. They would need some help, but it could still happen, especially with Ohio State's status as the defending champs. A loss by Michigan State obviously drops them out of the race and solidifies Ohio State's position.
No. 6 Oklahoma State hosts No. 10 Baylor in the other matchup of Top 10 teams. Baylor is likely out based on its loss to the Sooners and its incredibly weak schedule. Oklahoma State will also have a very, very hard time staying in contention should it lose to the Bears. Oklahoma State already has two one-loss opponents ahead of it, so a loss likely knocks them out of the race.
NEXT WEEK'S POLL IS HUGE
Right now Notre Dame remains solidly in. For all the talk about Notre Dame not controlling its own destiny, the Irish do remain in good position should they win out and look good doing so. Next week's poll will be critical for the Irish. Notre Dame must look good enough in beating Boston College to remain in the No. 4 spot.
Iowa, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and even Baylor still have plenty of opportunities to impress the committee. The talk in media circles is that the Big 12 champ could pass the Irish, assuming the champ is Oklahoma State or Oklahoma. Both have big games in the final two weekends of the regular season and they face each other in the last week. That means the winner of the Big 12 could finish the season with a Top 10 victory. If the Sooners do it, they will have beaten a Top 10 team on the road.
That will be the argument for passing Notre Dame, which is why Stanford only dropping to No. 11 was so important for the Irish. If Notre Dame is ahead of the Sooners and Cowboys next week, it will have a chance for a road win that will be every bit as impressive as whatever the eventual Big 12 champ will do that weekend.
It's not a guarantee, but should the Irish win the next two weeks and enter the Stanford game still in the Top 4, their position will be strong. Should the Irish fall behind either of the Big 12 teams in next weekends poll it will be hard for the Irish to jump them in the final poll for the same reasons.