Notre Dame left Northern California Saturday night knowing it needed help from teams ranked ahead of it to make the College Football Playoff.
Three days later, the No. 6 Irish (11-1) know they also need some assistance from another group: the CFP selection committee. Why? Because the committee’s protocols allow it to consider the potential impact of an unavailable player or coach on a postseason game outcome and factor that into the final rankings. It has done so before with player injuries. It has not, though, had to weigh a head coach’s absence.
Now, it will assess Brian Kelly’s sudden Monday departure for LSU and project how it might affect the Irish’s performance in a hypothetical playoff game.
“If anyone in our conversations has a player [or coach] who won’t be available and the committee deems it’s likely it will affect the outcome — that’s the words in the protocol — that can be discussed and can be considered,” committee chair Gary Barta said Tuesday. “Each of the 13 members can weigh that the way they want to weigh it compared to head-to-head competition, common opponents and all the other things we evaluate.”
In short, Kelly’s presence — or lack thereof — is part of Notre Dame’s playoff résumé. His absence from it could be more consequential than the Irish’s lone top-25 win (Wisconsin) disappearing from its ledger. Furthermore, Purdue did not slide back into the top 25 after finishing 8-4 with two top-16 wins.
Notre Dame’s oft-discussed lack of a “13th data point” might hurt it in an entirely unforeseen way. The Irish do not have a game on championship weekend and therein cannot offer tangible evidence of how Kelly’s absence would affect them.
On one hand, the assumption that losing the winningest head coach in program history is a negative seems defensible. On the other, Barta offered a reminder of how responses to unavailable players and coaches isn’t always easy to peg.
“There might be one committee who thinks, ‘This team might be more motivated with their new coach,’” Barta said. “Or, I’ve seen games where a quarterback who starts or running back that starts, they put in the next person and the team actually plays better.”
The most notable example of the latter is Ohio State in 2014, which lost quarterback J.T. Barrett to a season-ending injury the week before the Big Ten Championship Game. Cardale Jones replaced him and led the Buckeyes to a 59-0 win over No. 11 Wisconsin. It secured them a playoff spot, and they went on to win the national title.
Notre Dame, though, has no such chance. Which leaves the committee’s perception of Kelly’s absence to chance.
“If the committee believes there would be a likely effect on the outcome of the game based on who’s playing and coaching, it can be considered,” Barta said. “I know that’s loose, but I’m going to wait until Saturday night when everything has happened, and we’ll take all the information available to us and factor it in.”
It’s worth pointing out that Kelly’s status aside, Notre Dame has some hurdles to clear to make the top four.
In Tuesday night’s rankings refresh, which did not have Kelly’s exit factored in, the committee jumped Oklahoma State (11-1) from No. 7 to No. 5, leaving the Fighting Irish at No. 6 following their 45-14 win over Stanford (3-9) last week. The Cowboys, meanwhile, beat now-No. 14 Oklahoma to wrap their regular season. They play for the Big 12 championship Saturday against No. 9 Baylor.
Heading into Tuesday’s rankings reveal, the Irish understood an Oklahoma State win over the Bears would either cement the Cowboys’ status over them in the penultimate top 25 or likely cause a jump in the final one. No matter where Oklahoma State slotted in Tuesday’s rankings, a victory Saturday would deal a blow to Notre Dame’s playoff chances.
Notre Dame needs losses by two teams ranked between No. 2 and No. 5 to clear a path to the top four. No. 1 Georgia (12-0) figures to be in the playoff field regardless of what happens Saturday vs. Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Michigan (11-1) is No. 2 after beating Ohio State, Alabama (11-1) remained No. 3 after a four-overtime escape at Auburn and Cincinnati (12-0) stayed at No. 4 following its win at East Carolina.
Even then, there’s the lurking specter of the small but still non-zero possibility Alabama would remain in the top four with a close loss to Georgia.
CFP Top 25 — Nov. 30, 2021
1. Georgia (12-0)
2. Michigan (11-1)
3. Alabama (11-1)
4. Cincinnati (12-0)
5. Oklahoma State (11-1)
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
7. Ohio State (10-2)
8. Mississippi (10-2)
9. Baylor (10-2)
10. Oregon (10-2)
11. Michigan State (10-2)
12. BYU (10-2)
13. Iowa (10-2)
14. Oklahoma (10-2)
15. Pittsburgh (10-2)
16. Wake Forest (10-2)
17. Utah (9-3)
18. North Carolina State (9-3)
19. San Diego State (11-1)
20. Clemson (9-3)
21. Houston (11-1)
22. Arkansas (8-4)
23. Kentucky (9-3)
24. Louisiana (11-1)
25. Texas A&M (8-4)
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