BGI staff predictions: Purdue vs. Notre Dame
For the first time since 2014, Notre Dame and Purdue will meet on the gridiron to battle for the Shillelagh Trophy on Saturday. The Fighting Irish lead the all-time series against the Boilermakers — which dates all the way back to the 1896 season — 58-26-2 (.686 winning percentage).
The game had occurred annually from 1946 up until their previous meeting in 2014. The two teams were set to meet last season before the COVID-19 pandemic altered both team’s schedules.
The Irish have won their last seven games against the Boilermakers, keeping the Shillelagh Trophy on campus since the 2008 season. Prior to that, Purdue had claimed three out of five games from Notre Dame from 2003-07, taking ownership of the Shillelagh Trophy in 2003, 2004 and 2007.
All told, Notre Dame has notched eight straight victories against in-state opponents, including a 30-14 win over Purdue the last time the two schools met. The Fighting Irish’s last loss against an in-state foe came against Purdue (33-19) on Sept. 29, 2007.
Todd Burlage, contributing writer
Notre Dame 31, Purdue 21
Despite struggling in its games against Florida State and Toledo, Notre Dame still managed two three-point white-knuckle wins and now will put up its 2-0 record along with a 25-game home winning streak and a 34-game victory streak against unranked opponents against Purdue (2-0).
Fifth-year senior tailback Zander Horvath and talented junior wide receiver David Bell — an All-America candidate — will present Notre Dame with two tough defensive challenges.
The Boilermakers were picked in the preseason to finish sixth in the seven-team Big Ten West Division, but so far Purdue has played better than those projections with a 30-21 win over Oregon State and a 49-0 blowout victory over outmanned UConn.
Notre Dame’s home dominance, especially against unranked opponents, will be too tough for Purdue to overcome.
Steve Downey, managing editor
Notre Dame 27, Purdue 22
Following a highly successful three-year run — a 30-10 record, two Conference USA championships and three bowl wins — at Western Kentucky, head coach Jeff Brohm is still trying to find his footing at Purdue in Year 5. He entered this season with a 19-25 record in West Lafayette, with the high-water mark being a 7-6 finish in his first season.
Brohm believes his team is ready to turn the corner this year, a notion that was supported by a strong start the first two weeks. Victories against Oregon State (30-21) and Connecticut (49-0) gave the Boilermakers back-to-back 2-0 starts for the first time since 2006 and 2007, when Joe Tiller was patrolling the sidelines.
If the Boilermakers are able to maintain that momentum, they will have earned it. Purdue has five games on the schedule against teams that opened the season in the Associated Press Top 25, including road contests against Notre Dame, Ohio State and Iowa.
Knocking off Notre Dame would be a good start, but as shaky as the Irish have looked during their 2-0 start, playing them will be a much tougher test than an Oregon State program that has not produced a winning season since 2013 or a moribund UConn team.
Offensively, Purdue has been too one-dimensional in recent years. The Boilermakers have finished last in the Big Ten in rushing each of the last two seasons, including an 81.5-yard average in 2020. On the other side of the ball, the pass defense has not been good throughout Brohm’s tenure. The Boilermakers have finished 94th or worst each of the last four years.
Those are two areas I think the Irish are equipped to exploit. And the bottom line is Notre Dame is the more talented team and is playing at home.
Patrick Engel, editor
Notre Dame 34, Purdue 26
Purdue (2-0) has All-American level talent defensive end (junior George Karlaftis) and wide receiver (junior David Bell). Those two are among the best players Notre Dame will see this year at their respective positions. They’re capable of making a couple splash plays against any opponent.
Notre Dame’s offensive line and secondary concerns open the door even further for them to leave an impact on this game. The Irish might need No. 3 left tackle Tosh Baker to handle Karlaftis. That’s a difficult assignment for a sophomore who was thrust into action last week due to injury and had an up-and-down season debut.
But outside of him, Purdue hasn’t put much heat on quarterbacks or pushed its way into the backfield all too often. The Boilermakers have one sack and nine tackles for loss through two games. The latter ranks 103rd nationally. This could be a friendly setting for the Irish’s struggling offensive line to take a step. Then again, last week against Toledo felt like the same chance.
Purdue might be an average Big Ten team, but it has enough individual skill at important spots to stress Notre Dame’s defense. And Notre Dame’s narrow escape against a MAC opponent last week makes it hard to feel confident about a comfortable win this weekend.
Tyler Horka, staff writer
Notre Dame 34, Purdue 23
Finally. A win with a margin larger than a field goal.
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly said this is the week the Irish will really key in on who they are going to be offensively, so expect to see a heavy dose of graduate student quarterback Jack Coan throwing the ball and freshman quarterback Tyler Buchner running it.
The old adage goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Well, sometimes when it’s broke, it ain’t able to be fixed. That could be the case with the Notre Dame running game. It’s not the fault of junior running back Kyren Williams or sophomore Chris Tyree, either. The Irish offensive line just isn’t doing its job up front.
It’s a shame Williams won’t have the year many thought he could because of that, but it’s just the reality Notre Dame is working with right now. Coan and Buchner are going to have to shoulder the load, and they’ll do a fine job of that against Purdue.
Boilermakers quarterback Jack Plummer is going to make some plays against the Notre Dame defense. It wouldn’t be too shocking to see Purdue break off a lengthy run to set up a score, either. It’s happened in each of the first two games.
But in the end, Notre Dame will play sound enough for a comfortable victory for a change.
Mike Singer, recruiting insider
Notre Dame 35, Purdue 20
Last year was so wacky for the Big Ten, so I don’t want to look at last year as too much of a barometer for this season, but the Boilermakers stunk down the stretch and they didn’t look great at home against a bad Oregon State team to open the season. I take nothing away from their 49-0 win over UConn, which is one of the worst FBS programs in its current state that you’ll ever see.
Purdue still has a decent football team but loses a key piece to its offense with running back Zander Horvath being sidelined for the next several weeks with an injury. Notre Dame will certainly need to game plan to limit the havoc All-American defensive end George Karlaftis can produce. If it can protect Jack Coan and Tyler Buchner, look for Notre Dame to win by double digits and cover the touchdown spread.
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