BGI Staff Predictions: Notre Dame Vs. Pitt

Notre Dame’s 12-7 victory versus Louisville last week seemed an appropriate precursor or warm-up for its encounter with Pitt this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

In the six meetings under head coach Brian Kelly that the Fighting Irish have had with Pitt, the two common threads are it will be close and relatively low scoring. Kelly is 5-1 versus the Panthers, with the average score at the end of regulation time 23-20.

In fact, in seven of the last eight meetings between the two schools, and 10 of the last 12 dating back to 2002, it’s been only a one-score difference.

This year No. 3-ranked Notre Dame (4-0) is favored by 10.5 points, a whopping figure in this series, versus the reeling Pitt team that has lost three consecutive ACC contests to fall to 3-3. They included gut-wrenching one-point defeats to North Carolina State (30-29) and Boston College in overtime (31-30), plus 31-19 last week at Miami. Over their last 22 games, the Panthers are 11-11.

Still, Pitt has a long history of playing up to the level of the competition, including handing national champ Clemson its lone defeat in 2016 (the last time the Tigers lost at home), snapping Miami’s 15-game winning streak in 2017, losing 19-14 to playoff-bound Notre Dame in 2018 but still defeating ACC Coastal Division champ Virginia, and ending Central Florida’s 27-game unbeaten regular season streak in 2019.

Will Notre Dame, traveling for the first time this year, be the upset special — or better known as “Pitt Happens” — in 2020?

Notre Dame 31, Pitt 20

Under any circumstances a matchup with Pitt can be worrisome to Irish faithful. The Panthers nearly spoiled each of the last two 12-0 regular season marches by Notre Dame.

In 2012, the Irish had to rally from a 20-6 fourth-quarter deficit and a missed officiating call in one of the three overtimes to survive a 29-26 decision. In 2018, Notre Dame was playing catch-up the entire afternoon at home again before a touchdown with 5:43 left enabled it to prevail, 19-14. Pitt will enter this contest hungry to end a three-game losing streak.

But look for Notre Dame also to come out sharp and in command after last week’s close call versus Louisville.

Notre Dame 24, Pitt 10

Pitt’s front seven that leads the No. 1-ranked rushing defense (61.5 yards per game) may be the hardest barrier to break this season for Notre Dame’s explosive running attack, save for Clemson on Nov. 7. The Panthers get in the backfield often in run and pass situations, averaging 4.83 sacks per game (No. 2 in the country) and 11.2 tackles for loss (No. 3) . Their mix of size, strength and disruptive ability makes winning the line of scrimmage difficult. Notre Dame will earn every yard it gains on the ground.

All told, I see Notre Dame winning this one because Pitt’s offense won’t score enough. It’s too one-dimensional and doesn’t have much upside. Notre Dame hits a late downfield shot play to set up a touchdown that makes this a two-score game.

Notre Dame 33, Pitt 17

Pittsburgh always seems to play Notre Dame well, and this game likely will not be an exception. However, the Fighting Irish this time won’t need a late fourth-quarter touchdown pass from Ian Book to do it.

The Notre Dame offensive line will do a good job of neutralizing the ferocious Pitt pass rush, which helps them take an early lead. From there, the Fighting Irish stay in control of the game and pick up an important victory.

Notre Dame 24, Pitt 16

The Panthers very well could be 5-1 heading into this matchup with Notre Dame, as two of their three losses came by a combined two points. Pittsburgh is back at home after two consecutive road losses and will look to get back on track, but I believe there will be a road remedy for the Irish here.

Getting away from South Bend and all of “the noise” will help this team grind out a victory against a tough Panthers’ squad. An eight-point win at Pittsburgh may not get some Notre Dame fans excited, but it’ll be a solid conquest for the Irish.

Notre Dame 28, Pitt 13

My head says this has “upset special” written all over it with Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi looking to avoid his first four-game losing streak in the same season with the Panthers. They appear “due” to win a nail-biter, and they have a proclivity to rise against highly ranked teams — although they are only 1-15 against Notre Dame when the Irish are ranked in the AP Top 5, with the lone win coming in 1987, 30-22 at home.

However, Pitt is one of the worst running teams in the country — ranked 70th among 77 teams that have played so far — and have questions at quarterback after starter Kenny Pickett was sidelined last week with a bad ankle and didn't even make the trip to Miami. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s offense will be determined to improve from last week the way the defense was after the Florida State game. Thus, I’m uncharacteristically non-conservative with this pick and have gone rogue (which has not served me well in the past).

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