Published Nov 26, 2020
BGI Staff Predictions: Notre Dame Vs. North Carolina
Lou Somogyi  •  InsideNDSports
Senior Editor

College Football Playoff fever unofficially began this Tuesday when the initial CFP poll was released.

With an 8-0 record and the single-best quality victory of the year, versus No. 3 Clemson (47-40 in double-overtime), Notre Dame was placed at No. 2, behind only Alabama, which has impressively toppled both No. 5 Texas A&M (52-24) and No. 9 Georgia (41-24).

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Attempting to become a consistent ACC contender again is North Carolina (6-2), which came in at No. 19 in the CFP poll after rising to No. 5 in the Associated Press rankings earlier this year with a 3-0 start. Even second-year Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown said that lofty ranking at the time was premature and undeserved for his still fledgling program.

Notre Dame is knocking on entering the current “Big 3” club of Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State, while North Carolina is striving for now to be a consistent top-20 program. This game for Brown’s crew is somewhat akin to Notre Dame’s against Clemson earlier this month relative to achieving validation that it is not just a pretender.

While Notre Dame has fluctuated as a 3-to-7-point favorite in this outing, as of Thursday morning it was at five points with a 67.5 over-under, meaning a projected score of something like 36-31.

TODD BURLAGE, COLUMNIST

Notre Dame 40, North Carolina 30

A classic matchup of strength versus strength, Notre Dame’s stellar defense will square off against arguably the best balanced opposing offense it will face this regular season.

North Carolina is No. 4 nationally in total offense at 563.4 yards per game (233.5 rushing and 329.9 passing ) and 10th in scoring with a 43.1 average. Meanwhile, Notre Dame ranks No. 4 in the land in rush defense (85.1 yards per game) No. 9 in total defense (304.1 yards allowed per game) and 11th in in scoring defense (16.6 points per game).

Brian Kelly has thrived in these settings. The Irish skipper has won 10 of 11 road meetings against ACC foes since 2017, winning those by an average of 28.5 points per game. Notre Dame survives its toughest true road test of the season.

PATRICK ENGEL, ANALYST/BEAT WRITER 

Notre Dame 45, North Carolina 34

The Tar Heels have a balanced and explosive offense no one has slowed this year. They’re fourth nationally in yards per play and have scored at least four touchdowns in all but one game (a 26-22 win at Boston College on Oct. 3 after two weeks off from the coronavirus). Notre Dame’s defense will be playing damage control.

But that’s more than North Carolina’s defense can say it has done this year. While Notre Dame is permitting only 16.6 points per contest, the Tar Heels are nearly double at 30.8. The Irish will hang 40-plus points on a unit that has allowed 24 plays of at least 30 yards in eight games, and an alarming 5.7 yards per play.

ANDREW MENTOCK, STAFF WRITER

Notre Dame 40, North Carolina 33

Early in the game, Notre Dame’s suffocating defense is able to shut down North Carolina’s strong running game — as it did with Clemson Travis Etienne (18 carries, 28 yards), and apply pressure to quarterback Sam Howell whenever he drops back. This allows the Irish to get out to a sizable lead, much like Wake Forest did two weeks ago (45-24 in the third quarter).

Again, similar to the Wake Forest game, the Tar Heels come back to tie the game in the fourth quarter. Ian Book then leads Notre Dame on a game-winning drive, as has been his modus operandi during his career.

MIKE SINGER, RECRUITING INSIDER

Notre Dame 38, North Carolina 27

We all remember how Notre Dame looked coming off a bye before a big road game last year. The hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff as a one-loss team were washed away when Michigan crushed Notre Dame.

Kelly’s squad enters this game much more unified internally, undefeated and with control of its own destiny to reach the College Football Playoff. This is Notre Dame’s most difficult test left on the schedule before the Dec. 19 ACC Championship game and it can’t afford to sleepwalk against North Carolina’s potent offense. Most of the experts think North Carolina will keep this game within a touchdown, but I like Notre Dame to post an impressive, double-digit road win.

LOU SOMOGYI, SENIOR EDITOR

Notre Dame 35, North Carolina 26

For whatever reason in my typically off-the-wall mind, I have felt the same unease about this road game as I did at Texas in the 2016 opener (a 50-47 double-overtime loss), the 2017 debacle at Miami and last year’s fiasco at Michigan.

It stems from that irrational feeling of “this opponent is due.” I was uncomfortable with the Irish having a 9-2 series advantage versus a blue-blood like Texas, especially 4-0 in Austin and the theme that “Notre Dame owns Texas.” Same with having won four straight versus Miami prior to 2017, and last year all the pregame talk about how miserable the Wolverines are in games versus ranked teams.

This time it's about how the rising Tar Heels are 1-16 all-time at home versus a top-5 team, and how their 2-18 record against Notre Dame is the worst-ever winning percentage (.100) by a school that has played the Irish at least 20 times.

Even more difficult to shake is how physically and mentally tough this Notre Dame outfit is. The offense will be galvanized and determined minus two offensive line starters, while the defense will possess an excellent plan that will help limit the explosive Tar Heels to field goals several times. All the 2020 stars continue to align ideally for Notre Dame in this alternative football universe.

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