BGI Staff Predictions: Notre Dame Vs. Iowa State
Ranked No. 15 by the College Football Playoff committee at the end of the regular season, and No. 14 by the Associated Press, the 10-2 Fighting Irish are still only 3.5-point favorites versus 7-5 and unranked Iowa State.
The two teams will meet at noon on Saturday (Dec. 28) at the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fla., with the game telecast by ABC.
Why the low point-spread? The Cyclones have shown a propensity to play their best against top competition, losing by one this year to No. 4 Oklahoma (42-41), two to No. 7 Baylor (23-21) and one to No. 16 Iowa (18-17). They are also one of only three teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision since 2017 not to lose a game by more than 14 points.
On the other side, Notre Dame enters with a five-game winning streak, and won the last four contests by 31, 32, 33 and 21 points.
Here are our predictions:
TODD BURLAGE, STAFF WRITER
Iowa State 30, Notre Dame 28
It seems almost like a slap in the face for Notre Dame to go from College Football Playoff participant last year to a noon kickoff appetizer for the national semifinal games this season, but that's where the Irish find themselves.
A program on the upswing, 7-5 Iowa State considers this a marquee matchup and a potential watershed moment, while the 10-2 Fighting Irish believe they should be in something better than the Camping World Bowl. Motivation makes the difference in this one.
VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST
Notre Dame 31 Iowa State 21
I have no logical reason to feel good about this matchup the more and more I look at Iowa State and what it brings to the table on both offense and defense.
ISU quarterback Brock Purdy is a special player and he has an innate ability to spread the ball around and find the holes in defenses. He will attempt to manipulate the middle of the field the entire game with an excellent tight end corps led by AP second-team All-American Charlie Kolar. Will Notre Dame allow him to? That is the question.
Who will be the best tight end on the field? My money is on Cole Kmet. Can Ian Book exploit a defense that has struggled against the pass and has only six interceptions on the year? I believe he can. I am predicting a 10-point Irish win, but something in my gut tells me it could be a lot closer.
ANDREW MENTOCK, STAFF WRITER
Notre Dame 31, Iowa State 23
Notre Dame followers may be disappointed with the matchup against a 7-5 Iowa State team, but that doesn't mean the Cyclones are to be taken lightly. They played their three toughest opponents of the season close, and I expect them to do likewise against Notre Dame.
The strong Fighting Irish pass defense — ranked fifth nationally in overall efficiency — should do well to slow down the prolific Cyclone offense just enough to hold them below 30 points. Meanwhile, quarterback Ian Book continues to play well and has at least three touchdown passes.
MIKE SINGER, RECRUITING INSIDER
Notre Dame 28, Iowa State 24
Something’s gotta give, right? Iowa State has the No. 8 passing attack in the nation, while Notre Dame’s pass defense is No. 3 in the land in yards allowed and No. 5 in efficiency..
I don’t believe Notre Dame will be sleepwalking in the Camping World Bowl. This Irish team has a lot to play for — an 11-win season, dominating without offensive coordinator Chip Long, and making a statement on a national stage. The Irish will be able to slow down Brock Purdy and the Cyclones’ passing attack somewhat, and the Irish win in a close one.
LOU SOMOGYI, SENIOR EDITOR
Notre Dame 34, Iowa State 24
An upset special pick her would be understandable and not surprising, but the more I hear, "Notre Dame is probably not excited about this game like Iowa State is," the more I believe it will grab the attention of the Irish players and coaches the right way.
With quarterbacks coach Tom Rees now in the new role of play-caller for the offense — while filtering it through head coach Brian Kelly — I envision a post-game celebration lauding his debut that eventually will result in getting named the coordinator.
While Notre Dame often gets ridiculed for not winning "grand stage" games, it joins Alabama as the lone programs since 2017 to not lose to an unranked team, having won 23 straight such contests. Make it 24.
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