BGI Staff Predictions: Notre Dame Vs. Clemson II
How can an original epic be topped by a sequel?
In cinema, it was achieved with The Godfather II. In 2020 college football, it possibly could occur with Notre Dame-Clemson II this Saturday in the ACC Championship on ABC (4 p.m. ET).
The original on Nov. 7 this year had a Total Audience Delivery (TAD) of 10.217 million viewers, making it the most-watched college football game of the 2020 season.
Anticipation often exceeds the actual event, but in this case the dramatic 47-40 double-overtime victory by the then No. 4-ranked Fighting Irish over No. 1-ranked Clemson also was the most pulsating contest of the year with so much on the line.
Notre Dame controlled the line of scrimmage with a stunning 208-34 advantage in net rushing yardage. Yet, until a dramatic 91-yard touchdown march by quarterback Ian Book and the Irish in the closing seconds of regulation play to tie the game at 33, Clemson freshman quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei passed for the most yards (439) ever against a Fighting Irish team.
Both teams tended to bog down in the red zone, resulting in four field goals apiece, but Notre Dame was especially proficient with third downs, converting 10 of 19 (52.6 percent) compared to Clemson’s 4 of 15 (26.6 percent).
A major talking point was how the Tigers were without projected 2021 No. 1 draft pick Trevor Lawrence (sidelined for the Notre Dame game while recuperating from the coronavirus) at quarterback, plus three starters along the defensive front seven.
With everyone projected to be in action this time, Clemson has been installed as a 10.5-point favorite (it was a 5.5-favorite in the first clash) — which has left the Notre Dame team privately seething without playing too much of the always popular disrespect card, although Book did express it to ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit earlier this week.
“Our 11 guys will be there,” said Book to Herbstreit of the starting unit. “…I’m excited that all those [Clemson] guys are back. We can play them and have all those people be quiet once the game is over and we can get this win. It’s adding fuel to the fire. I think it will be an awesome matchup, but at the end of the day it’s about our guys.”
TODD BURLAGE, COLUMNIST
Notre Dame 28, Clemson 27
Brian Kelly broke his 0-for-5 streak against top-five teams in November with the 47-40 toppling of top-ranked Clemson, leaving the question as to whether the Irish head coach can win two in a row against the elite to claim an ACC title — and then beat two more top-five opponents after that to claim a national championship.
Typically, I wouldn’t give Notre Dame much of a chance against Clemson at a neutral site, especially as a 10.5-point underdog this weekend. But this Notre Dame team is wired differently than Kelly’s previous ones. The Irish find a way to get this one done, and perhaps secure a No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoffs as a reward.
PATRICK ENGEL, ANALYST/BEAT WRITER
Clemson 28, Notre Dame 27
Notre Dame’s good enough to beat Clemson no matter who’s at quarterback because it’s more than capable of controlling both lines, as it did on Nov. 7. That wasn’t clear heading into the first meeting. Even with a few Tigers defensive starters back for this second one, I still think it’s true. I just have a hard time seeing anyone beating Clemson twice in the span of six weeks. Had Clemson pulled out the overtime win last month, I’d be taking Notre Dame.
I like Notre Dame’s chances at winning the line of scrimmage again, but it also feels near-impossible to hold running back Travis Etienne to anything near 28 yards and 1.6 yards per rush again. Add in a bit more production from him and quarterback Lawrence’s run threat, and Clemson should have something of a pulse on the ground.
ANDREW MENTOCK, STAFF WRITER
Clemson 34, Notre Dame 28
Once again, Notre Dame jumps out to a big lead against Clemson and is up by double-digits in the first half. By the end of the second quarter, Book has already thrown for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
But Tigers’ quarterback Lawrence rallies his teammates in the second half when he catches fire in the third quarter and Clemson narrows the gap. In the final five minutes of the game, Clemson takes the lead for good and both teams go to the College Football Playoffs — and a potential best-of-three series.
MIKE SINGER, RECRUITING INSIDER
Clemson 33, Notre Dame 27
This is going to be another great game, but I see the Tigers getting the better of Notre Dame this time. I don’t see it being a double-digit game like Vegas thinks. With Lawrence back, Clemson’s offense is better — and specifically should lead to a more efficient operation and production with the ground game with his zone reads — but not by astronomical amounts.
Uiagalelei was excellent in the first game, but the bigger difference in this game will be better performance by both defenses. If Notre Dame does lose this game, it still should be a virtual lock for the College Football Playoff — and maybe even a third meeting with the Tigers in the rubber match.
LOU SOMOGYI, SENIOR EDITOR
Notre Dame 31, Clemson 28
I’ll have some extra syrup, please. That’s because all I ever do with this game is waffle.
Half of me tells me Clemson will be extremely locked in and loaded for bear. The Tigers know their collective playoff life is in jeopardy, and will play their best game of the season while covering the 10.5-point spread, setting them up as the No. 2 seed and the possibility of another Alabama-Clemson title showdown.
The other half says that just like it was time for Alabama’s five-year playoff streak from 2014-18 to end with two losses prior to the invites in 2019, so too is it time for the football gods — and a highly physical and mature, veteran Notre Dame team — to end Clemson’s five-year CFP streak from 2015-19. What keeps going through my mind is Notre Dame players making post-game remarks tomorrow about, “We heard a lot about how some [Clemson] guys were missing in action the first time. All we do is play ball and win against whoever you put out there for us.”
Deep down, I felt good about Notre Dame winning Round I — but picked Clemson as reverse psychology for myself after more than two decades of frustration in "these kind of games." Deep down this time, I believe Clemson will capture Round II. Back in October, I projected a split between these two teams, but couldn’t commit to which games would be won by who, and thought both would be in the CFP anyway.
This is merely a case of my heart not wanting to pick against the Irish in print here (although I did in the magazine edition 11 days ago).
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