BGI Staff Predictions: Notre Dame Vs. Clemson

Something eventually must give when No. 1 Clemson and No. 4 Notre Dame square off Saturday night at Notre Dame Stadium (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC).

Notre Dame owns the nation’s longest current winning streak with 12. Meanwhile, Clemson has won 39 straight in the regular season, including three straight ACC Championship matchups.

Subtract those three as not part of the regular season, and the streak is 36 — the exact same as No. 1 Miami’s in 1988 before losing 31-30 to the Fighting Irish unit that eventually won the program’s most recent national title.

Notre Dame also has won 22 straight at home, second currently in the country to Clemson’s 27. Oh, and by the way, the Tigers’ 15-game winning streak on the road also is the longest such skein in the country.

And then there is a more dubious Fighting Irish streak: 11 straight losses to a top-5 ranked team, with the most recent victory occurring in the second game of head coach Charlie Weis’ tenure, 17-10 at No. 3 Michigan in 2005. Since the start of the AP poll in 1936, that is the longest such drought in the program’s history, with the previous marks eight apiece from 1958-64 and 1999-2004.

Although Clemson will be without Heisman Trophy candidate Trevor Lawrence and three starters along the defensive front seven because of health setbacks, it has still been installed as a 5.5-point favorite.

Clemson 27, Notre Dame 21

The Tigers haven’t lost a regular-season game since getting clipped by what would be a 4-8 Syracuse team in October 2017 — yet even then Clemson rebounded and reached the College Football Playoff. With two national championships in the last four seasons and five straight CFP appearances, the Tigers know dominance.

Even with Tigers All-American quarterback Lawrence out for the game, Clemson’s “Been There, Done This” confidence becomes the advantage for the most successful college program during the last four seasons, and Brian Kelly falls to 0-6 in his career at Notre Dame against top-five opponents.

Clemson 22, Notre Dame 19

Without Lawrence, it’s hard to see a possibility of Clemson winning handily. The quarterback position was one of the larger discrepancies when assessing these two teams. Yet, Lawrence is not all that makes Clemson a force. The Tigers still have arguably the country’s best running back in Travis Etienne and another top-tier defense. And they can shift from one five-star quarterback to another.

Yes, DJ Uiagalelei is a freshman, but he was also a top-three overall recruit with all the tools of a college star. The offense humming with him at the helm is every bit as plausible as him having a game full of freshman moments. Notre Dame’s defense is capable of making him suffer plenty of the latter. Yet even amid the uncertainty, I’m still siding with the more talented team in a close one that features a lot of field goals and sturdy red-zone defense.

Clemson 33, Notre Dame 24

The Notre Dame defense keeps Clemson at bay for the first two quarters, and it's a tied ball game at the half, 17-17. That's not going to look nearly as bad to them as falling behind last week 28-10 to Boston College and trailing by 15 at the intermission before rallying to the victory. The Tigers pull away in the third quarter on several big plays from Etienne, and Clemson cruises to a somewhat comfortable victory.

The Irish score an additional touchdown, and quarterback Ian Book is able make some big plays as a runner and by throwing downfield, but ultimately he and the running backs don’t get it done often enough, and it's costly.

Notre Dame 24, Clemson 23

I mulled over this game and went with a Clemson victory. But then after doing some more research and listening to our Irish Huddle podcast from earlier this week, I believe this is a perfect storm for Notre Dame to beat Clemson.

The sensational Lawrence is out, Clemson’s defensive front is banged up and its wide receiver corps is not as strong as in years past. Notre Dame is pretty darn healthy, although as we’ve learned that can change at the drop of a hat.

Uiagalelei is no slouch at quarterback even as a true freshman, and Etienne is an absolute stud at running back, but Notre Dame’s biggest strength is its deep and talented defense. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame will need to run the ball effectively, and should be able to do so against the Tigers’ front that will be without its top interior tackle (Tyler Davis) and the heartbeat of its defense at linebacker (James Skalski) . They’ll load the box and force Book to beat them. I think the Irish will eke it out, but I don’t have much confidence in the pick.

Clemson 27, Notre Dame 23

In the preseason, one of my most confident predictions in 2020 was Notre Dame and Clemson would play twice — the second time in the ACC Championship (Dec. 19 in Charlotte) — and the two would split those meetings. That would set the stage for potentially a rubber match in the College Football Playoff.

The main aspect I don’t like about this game is the Tigers are playing with house money. They know even if they lose, the national perception (especially from the playoff committee) is they didn’t have Lawrence and three prime starters on the defensive front seven. Thus, it will be a mulligan as long as they defeat the Irish on Dec. 19 to get back to the CFP a sixth straight year. Another part that leaves me a little uneasy is they were taken to the wall last week before surviving, which means Dabo Swinney should have them sharp and focused — just as Kelly will on Notre Dame's end.

Logic dictates that the Irish win this one and lose Dec. 19 — but this is such a crazy year that I’ll say the reverse will happen. I stand by my pick that these two will go 1-1 against each other prior to the CFP. If Notre Dame does win this one, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s by double digits.

For 15 years I have been picking Notre Dame in these type of marquee games — USC 2005, Alabama 2012, Ohio State in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl, Clemson in the 2018 CFP, Georgia at home in 2017 — because my simple rational was "THE IRISH ARE OVERDUE FOR SUCH A WIN, AND IT'S TIME."

Now it is "time" to finally use some reverse psychology and be wrong yet again. You're welcome.

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