BGI Staff Predictions: Notre Dame Vs. Alabama

This is the type of moment and opportunity upon which the Notre Dame football legend was born and reinforced: playing the best opposition on a grand stage, and then pulling off either a breathtaking upset or reaffirming its status as the alpha figure it had been or is again.

Friday afternoon’s College Football Playoff game versus 11-0 and No. 1 Alabama (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) combines both elements of what could be shock and awe.

With Notre Dame installed as a 20-point underdog, this has a chance to rival, if not surpass, the most epic upset in the program’s annals: ending Oklahoma’s NCAA record 47-game winning streak as a 19-point underdog in Norman — after losing 40-0 at home to the Sooners the previous year, and falling 34-6 to Michigan State the week before traveling to Oklahoma.

As for the postseason stage, once upon a time in a 24-year period from 1970-1993, the Fighting Irish defeated seven unbeaten teams in bowl games, five of which were ranked No. 1 in at least one of the wire-service polls, among them 11-0 Alabama outfits in 1973 and 1974. However, the last time it occurred was Jan. 1, 1990 versus 11-0 and No. 1 Colorado (21-6).

This year, Notre Dame had a taste of that past glory on Nov. 7 by defeating No. 1 Clemson 47-40 in double-overtime during the regular season. It was the greatest Irish football victory in 27 years, when in November 1993 they defeated No. 1 Florida State.

Can lightning strike again in the post-season against another No. 1 — and now the first major bowl win also in 27 years?

Alabama 42, Notre Dame 17

Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris and wide receiver DeVonta Smith all rank among the best in the country at their positions, with Jones and Smith becoming Heisman finalists on a unit that ranks second in the country in scoring at 49.7 points per game.

Other than the 52-46 win over No. 7 Florida in the SEC Championship game, the Crimson Tide defeated each of the 10 other opponents by at least 15 points.

With six projected first-round 2021 NFL Draft picks in the Alabama lineup, the talent advantage over Notre Dame may be bigger than the 20-point spread the Crimson Tide is favored by.

Alabama 41, Notre Dame 27

This is going to come down to whether Notre Dame can score enough. I’m not going to bet on an offense that averaged 49.7 points in 11 SEC games suddenly failing to reach 30 points for the first time since the 2018 campaign.

Alabama’s defense is not the brick wall Notre Dame faced in the 2013 BCS title game, but it’s still upper-level. The Irish will acquit themselves better than they did in the ACC Championship, but not quite enough to topple the king.

Alabama 45, Notre Dame 27

Smith and the other Alabama wide receivers expose Notre Dame’s secondary early, and Notre Dame is down double digits after the first quarter. The Irish come on in the second quarter with a pair of touchdowns from quarterback Ian Book and it’s a one-score game at the half.

However, the Alabama offense turns up the heat in the second half and the Crimson Tide cruise to a comfortable lead, covering the initial 17.5-point spread (but not the current 20) and moving on to the College Football Championship Game for the fifth time in six years.

Alabama 37, Notre Dame 27

If this score holds, it will be yet another double-digit loss for Notre Dame in major postseason action. The two losses on the season would be to Alabama and Clemson, who are not only the best two college football teams this season but the most dominant in the past decade.

If I’m a Notre Dame fan, I'm hanging my head high on the 2020 season if in fact the Irish do lose by this margin. The Irish split with Clemson and will have went toe-to-toe with Alabama, the most high-powered offense in college football — and 37 points would also be the lowest point total by the Crimson Tide all season.

But has the gap closed on Alabama and Clemson? The problem is that even though Notre Dame has improved since the 2013 BCS Championship game against Alabama and been more consistent, the Crimson Tide just keep getting better, too.

Alabama 33, Notre Dame 24

Anyone who knows me recognizes how badly I want to pick the Fighting Irish when the whole college football world is giving it virtually no chance. To see Notre Dame 10-1, ranked No. 4 and having recorded a victory against Clemson, yet still be an underdog by nearly three touchdowns, is mind-boggling.

As an old-timer who from 1971 through 1993 saw the football and men’s basketball teams combine for 16 wins (eight apiece) against No. 1-ranked teams in at least one of the two wire-service polls, it was like a ritual, a birthright, to witness the Fighting Irish win these type of games Could football do it twice this season, which it never has?

I do anticipate a prideful and determined effort, including holding the Crimson Tsunami to its lowest point total this year. With a good start that puts game-pressure on Alabama, some well-timed turnovers and stops, and a touchdown from the defense or special teams … belief and spirit just might resurface. If it does, 34-30 Irish. Never stop believing. It can be achieved.

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