BGI staff predictions: Notre Dame at Virginia Tech
The No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they take on the Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1) at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg on Saturday night.
The last time the Irish lost back-to-back regular season games was five years ago, and it just so happened to involve the Hokies. Notre Dame suffered a 34-31 setback to Virginia Tech on Senior Day in South Bend on Nov. 19, 2016, before dropping a 45-27 decision at USC the following week to close out a dismal 4-8 campaign.
That three-point defeat at the hands of the Hokies also represents the last time Notre Dame lost a game against an unranked foe. Since that loss, the Irish have won 35 consecutive matchups against unranked teams — the second-longest streak in the nation behind only Alabama, which has now won 100 straight.
Saturday’s meeting will mark the fourth time the Irish and Hokies have played, and will be just the second game between the two schools at Lane Stadium. In 2018, Notre Dame notched a 45-23 victory over Virginia Tech. The Irish then took a 2-1 series lead with a come-from-behind 21-20 triumph in 2019, when quarterback Ian Book scored the go-ahead rushing touchdown in the final minute of the contest.
Todd Burlage, contributing writer
Notre Dame 20, Virginia Tech 17
The Hokies have allowed only 15.2 points per game so far this season, which slots them at No. 11 nationally in scoring defense.
Irish head coach Brian Kelly counters with a 35-game winning streak against unranked teams and a history of success playing ACC foes, home or away. Since 2016, Notre Dame has lost only one regular-season game against an ACC opponent (Miami, 2017).
Entering this game off of the 24-13 loss to Cincinnati, Kelly needs a quick turnaround in a tough environment. Kelly is 16-11 at Notre Dame in games following a loss (season-ending defeats not included).
Sixth-year Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente went 19-8 and finished in the top 25 in each of his first two years in Blacksburg, Va., but his teams are just 19-18 over the previous three full seasons.
Steve Downey, managing editor for Blue & Gold Illustrated
Notre Dame 24, Virginia Tech 16
Lane Stadium can be a difficult place to play. Just ask then-No. 10 North Carolina, which was exposed in a 17-10 loss to Virginia Tech during the opening weekend in the first top-10 upset of the season.
Still, it hasn’t been as hostile an environment to play in as it was during the peak years when Frank Beamer was running the show. Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente has actually lost eight games at Lane Stadium against ACC opponents alone during his five-plus years in charge.
Notre Dame’s trip to Blacksburg gives the Hokies an opportunity to register two home wins against Associated Press Top 25 foes in the same season for the first time since 2009, when they edged No. 19-ranked Nebraska 16-15 and thumped No. 9 Miami 31-7.
However, the Irish have won 20 consecutive regular-season games against ACC opponents. Ten of those victories have come on the road by an average margin of 22.4 points, including a 45-23 beatdown of the Hokies at Blacksburg in 2018.
Virginia Tech has been good defensively, surrendering just 15.2 points per game while registering 3.25 sacks per contest, but has struggled offensively during its 3-1 start. The Hokies averaged 3.2 yards per rush or less in three of their four games and struggled in the red zone, tying for 121st nationally with scores just 64.3 percent of the time.
Despite their early season struggles, the Irish have more playmakers on offense. That combined with their big-play defense will help them get back in the win column this week.
Patrick Engel, editor
Notre Dame 23, Virginia Tech 13
Lane Stadium’s pulsing atmosphere isn’t the friendliest of places to play as a visitor even with a clear offensive direction or established starting quarterback. Notre Dame has neither.
Even though Drew Pyne is better equipped to navigate life behind a porous offensive line, it’s hard to feel too sure about what he will bring as a passer right away if he gets the starting nod. Especially against a Virginia Tech defense that harassed North Carolina’s troublesome front and star quarterback Sam Howell in a 17-10 season-opening win. That’s enough to put a cloak of unease around a game I didn’t think would be too challenging heading into the season.
The thing is, a lot of Notre Dame’s concerns despite its 4-1 record are true of Virginia Tech (3-1, 1-0 ACC) too.
The Hokies rank 105th nationally in yards per play, 91st in sacks allowed per game, 85th in passing efficiency and most recently scored just 21 points in a win over Football Championship Series opponent Richmond. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister is enigmatic. Offensive line play is unreliable.
It’s hard to envision them putting too much stress on an Irish defense that has looked more like its 2018-20 self in recent weeks. Some pass-defense problems re-emerged last week against Cincinnati, but Virginia Tech is not really built to exploit them very often.
Neither offense has put forth much evidence it can score with any consistency. Both teams have good enough defenses to handle a middling offense. But one of them has Kyle Hamilton and Michael Mayer. The other does not. This feels like a spot where each makes a difference-making play or two.
Tyler Horka, staff writer
Virginia Tech 22, Notre Dame 17
It’s gut check time for the Fighting Irish, and I’m not so certain this cast of characters has what it takes to stop a skid in its tracks and get going in the right direction.
The quarterback situation was supposed to be solved in preseason. Here we are in week six, and the conversation of controversy at that position — the most important on the field — is as loud as it’s been all year.
Picking Virginia Tech has much more to do with the Irish than it does the Hokies. Virginia Tech is not particularly good by many measures. The Hokies rank No. 112 nationally in total offense. They do rank 45th in total defense, though, which is enough to disrupt a Notre Dame offense that has not put a complete game together in all facets this season.
The Irish rank No. 124 in the country in rushing offense at 80.8 yards per game. They rank tied for No. 122 in sacks allowed (22.0). That’s tied with North Carolina, who Virginia Tech upset in Blacksburg, Va., in week one. Virginia Tech’s defense is decent enough to continue the trend and stymie the Irish’s ground game — or lack thereof — and get after the quarterback, just like it did against North Carolina.
Notre Dame doesn’t have the offensive firepower to pull away from the Hokies like it did in a 45-23 victory at Lane Stadium in 2018. Like every Notre Dame game this season, Saturday’s will remain close into the fourth quarter. Virginia Tech, despite its offensive deficiencies, will make enough plays in a friendly, supportive environment to send the Irish spiraling into its bye week.
Greg Ladky, managing editor for BlueandGold.com
Notre Dame 21, Virginia Tech 20
Which Virginia Tech team will show up? The team that looked faster and more physical than North Carolina? Or the team that struggled to score for long portions of its games against Richmond (FCS) and West Virginia?
The Hokies don't have a potential first round pick on their defensive line like George Karlaftis (Purdue) or Myjai Sanders (Cincinnati). However, watch out for linebacker Dax Hollifield, a former Army All-American. He has 4.5 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks. Hollifield and fellow class of 2018 four-star Alan Tisdale form a strong linebacker group. Nonetheless, the Irish offensive line may have the opportunity to settle into the game without having to worry about a game-wrecking pass rusher. That will be important in a loud environment.
I like Notre Dame's defense against Virginia Tech’s offense. As long as the Irish can prevent QB Braxton Burmeister from using his elite speed to crack long runs, the Hokies’ run offense isn't fearsome (averaging just 3.6 yards/rush and 140 yards/game), and the passing offense isn't consistent enough to finish drives
Michael Mayer’s status is a concern. Without him, I like Virginia Tech. But, assuming he plays, I think the Irish simply have more talent across the board to go into Lane Stadium and pull out a win. But the Irish offensive line must take a step forward. If not...get ready for a loss Saturday night, and more down the road.
Mike Singer, recruiting insider
Notre Dame 21, Virginia Tech 17
This will be a close one on the road, and the Irish will be on upset alert. I don’t believe it’ll be pretty, but it’ll be one where Brian Kelly and Co. make enough plays late to get a low scoring win. Virginia Tech is an improved football team but not at the level of beating the Fighting Irish just yet.
This game is a breaking point. Is this a team that will rebound after the Cincinnati loss and go 11-1 or 10-2? Or will it fall against Virginia Tech and be more of an 8-4 team?
Whether it’s Jack Coan or Drew Pyne as Notre Dame’s quarterback, I believe this offense will struggle, but going out on the road will be a good thing for this team. The Irish defense will play well, and the offense will get enough done.
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