BGI staff predictions: Notre Dame at Virginia
Following a successful three-game home stand, the No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) travel to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (6-3) at Scott Stadium on Saturday evening (7:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
The Irish find themselves on the periphery of a College Football Playoff berth and need a victory to keep their slim hopes alive. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, will be seeking their first win over a top-10 opponent since 2005, when they knocked off No. 4 Florida State 26-21. UVA’s last win over a ranked foe came last season at home against No. 15 North Carolina (44-41).
The last time Notre Dame played Virginia at Scott Stadium in 2015 it had to rally late to escape with a 34-27 victory. Sophomore quarterback DeShone Kizer connected with junior wide receiver Will Fuller on a 39-yard touchdown pass with 12 seconds remaining to cap an eight-play, 80-yard drive to erase a 27-26 deficit. It is one of the handful of times in program history the Irish have won a game by scoring a touchdown with fewer than 30 seconds remaining in regulation time.
The Irish lead the all-time series with the Cavaliers 3-0. The two schools first met in the 1989 Kickoff Classic in the Meadowlands at East Rutherford, N.J., and Notre Dame came away with a 36-13 victory. The Fighting Irish also defeated the Cavaliers 35-20 in South Bend in 2019.
Notre Dame is a 5.5-point favorite against Virginia. The Irish have won 37 consecutive games as a favorite and 39 consecutive games against unranked teams, which currently stands as the longest active streak in the country.
Season-to-date records
Todd Burlage — 7-2 straight up, 5-4 against the spread
Steve Downey — 7-2, 6-3
Patrick Engel — 7-2, 5-4
Tyler Horka — 7-2, 5-4
Greg Ladky — 4-1, 3-2
Mike Singer — 7-2, 5-4
Todd Burlage, contributing writer
Notre Dame 48, Virginia 24
Predicting this game without knowing the availability of star Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong is a reckless endeavor.
So much so, that if the rib injury Armstrong suffered Oct. 30, against BYU keeps him out, No. 9 Notre Dame (8-1) will move from a 5.5-point favorite to a double-digit chalk play over the Cavaliers (6-3).
Surrounded by a group of talented pass catchers, Armstrong ranks second in the country with 395.2 passing yards per game on a team that scores 38.9 points per outing and leads the nation with 545.2 total yards a game.
Assuming he starts and plays, Armstrong — who Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall on Monday called a “right until the ball is kicked off” decision — will score the football.
If Armstrong doesn’t start and play, the Cavaliers won’t.
With or without Armstrong, Notre Dame will run on a Virginia defense that gives up 219.1 yards per game, it will pass on a defense that allows 247.1 yards per game, and it will score on a defense that ranks 102nd nationally with 30.8 points allowed per game.
Since 2016, Kelly has lost only one regular-season game to an ACC team (Miami, 2017). He’s 22-0 against the conference since.
Steve Downey, managing editor for Blue & Gold Illustrated
Notre Dame 45, Virginia 31
If nothing else, the Cavaliers have been extremely entertaining to watch this season. They scored 39 or more points in six of their first nine games en route to a 6-3 mark. Junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong leads in the nation in total offense (3,828, 425.3 per game), and ranks second in passing yards (3,557, 395.2) and fourth in points responsible for (212, 23.6). He has eclipsed the 300-yard mark in eight of the nine games this season and thrown for more than 400 yards four times.
However, Armstrong — who has been responsible for 34 of Virginia’s 44 touchdowns (77.1 percent) in 2021 — suffered a rib injury in the Cavaliers’ 66-49 loss at BYU Oct. 30, and the severity of the injury has not been revealed by UVA. Head coach Bronco Mendenhall has been coy this week, noting Armstrong’s status will be a game-time decision. It is entirely possible that with the ACC Coastal Division crown within its reach, UVA could choose to sit him out against the Irish in hopes of having him ready for critical games at Pitt Nov. 20 and home versus Virginia Tech Nov. 27.
If Armstrong doesn’t play, the scales tip decidedly in Notre Dame’s favor. The three signal-callers behind him are all freshmen and the Virginia defense has struggled mightily. The Cavaliers rank 101st nationally in scoring defense (30.8 points allowed per game), 122nd in total defense (466.2 yards allowed per game) and 122nd in rushing defense (219.1).
The Irish offensive line has made tangible improvement since a poor start to the season, earning an 85.8 grade from Pro Football Focus in wins over USC and North Carolina after posting a 60.5 grade over the first six contests. It is no coincidence that junior running back Kyren Williams has played his best football over the past four games. He has averaged 208.0 all-purpose yards per game and scored 12 touchdowns while putting the Fighting Irish offense on his back, and is primed for another big day against Virginia’s porous defense.
The Irish should be able to keep the good times rolling against UVA with another big point total on their way to another victory, whether or not Armstrong plays.
Patrick Engel, editor
Notre Dame 42, Virginia 26
Quarterback Brennan Armstrong’s uncertain status makes this one harder to peg. With him, the Cavaliers are a pass-happy, vertically focused offense that can put points on just about anyone. Can they be anywhere close to their normal selves if freshman Jay Woolfolk or quarterback-turned-receiver Keytaon Thompson starts instead?
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly hinted the Irish are preparing for the normal identity with Armstrong and heavier quarterback run-game offense with one of the others. If one of the backups can still throw as effectively as normal or move the ball in a different way, Notre Dame might have to win a shootout. If not, this one could quickly get out of hand.
Virginia has an impressive group of weapons that can still needle Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton-less secondary. Wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks is one of the country’s best deep threats. He leads the nation in average depth of target (19.9, minimum 50 targets). Teammate Ra’Shaun Henry is right behind him, at 19.7. Wicks is second nationally in yards per catch (23.14) among players with at least 35 receptions.
No matter the quarterback, Virginia’s defensive issues are ripe for Notre Dame to exploit. Any offense with a pulse essentially starts the game with three touchdowns. The Irish offense has steadily moved the ball against middling defenses the last few weeks. I don’t see that changing here.
Tyler Horka, staff writer
Notre Dame 40, Virginia 31
Let’s be clear: this is a prediction based on the assumption Virginia junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong suits up and plays. Without Armstrong, I don’t see the Cavaliers scoring more than 30 points. With him, they could keep it close for a while. Either way, the Virginia defense isn’t good enough to stop an improved Notre Dame offense enough to have a true chance at pulling an upset.
Did you watch the Virginia versus BYU game? The Cougars could do no wrong offensively. The Cavaliers could do nothing right defensively. If the Notre Dame offensive line comes to play the way it has of late, junior running back Kyren Williams will have a field day. BYU ran for 385 yards on this defense two weeks ago. The Cougars also passed for 349 yards. Graduate student Jack Coan and true freshman wide receiver Lorenzo Styles could connect for the latter’s first touchdown. Sophomore tight end Michael Mayer should be more heavily utilized in the wake of graduate student wide receiver Avery Davis’ season-ending ACL injury too.
Notre Dame has the advantage on both sides of the ball. Look for this game to be similar to North Carolina vs. Notre Dame two weeks ago. The opposing quarterback will keep it close for a while, but in the end the Irish are just better. Even on the road this time.
Greg Ladky, managing editor for BlueandGold.com
Notre Dame 45 Virginia 38
Half of my prediction on this game falls on whether or not star Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong plays, and the other half has nothing to do with Armstrong. Does that make any sense?
The first half of that prediction: Armstrong has been nothing short of awesome this year. Statistically, he is among the nation’s best passers, and he has accomplished that with an exciting mix of sandlot improvisation and excellent downfield accuracy. With Armstrong, Virginia presents a unique challenge in that the Cavaliers have multiple receivers that can hurt the Irish. I would not say any Virginia receiver is as good as David Bell (Purdue), Josh Downs (North Carolina) or Drake London (USC), but as a group, the Virginia receivers can collectively expose weakness in a defensive backfield. There is no “take this guy away, and we will be fine” option. But, Armstrong has to be full-go to expose a depleted Notre Dame secondary.
The other half — Virginia's defense is bad. They rank 122nd in total defense (out of 130 teams). If you want to watch a team that failed in the basics of defensive football — tackling and preventing receivers from catching the ball — watch the Virginia-BYU game. It may not matter whether Armstrong plays or not, an improving Notre Dame offense should move the ball at will via the ground and air to score a lot of points.
One more thought on Armstrong. He is a tough kid, who plays with passion. My hunch is he will play, and I hope for college football fans he does, because with the game on ABC in prime time, the nation will get its best chance to watch his abundant talent.
So, I bet and hope Armstrong plays, but Notre Dame still wins. I like Notre Dame’s defensive line to disrupt enough drives to win a shootout.
Mike Singer, recruiting insider
Notre Dame 27, Virginia 20
It is tough to give a score prediction on the matchup when we don’t know if the Cavaliers will have their starting quarterback back for the game. If Brennan Armstrong is out, give me the Irish by two touchdowns on the road. If he’s at 90 percent or better, I’ll take Notre Dame by a field goal.
In reading in between the lines, my gut is that Armstrong will play. But since I can’t say for sure, I’ll go with Notre Dame by a touchdown. Sounds like solid logic, right?
All in all, this will be a road test for this Notre Dame football team, but give me the Fighting Irish to come out with a win, although so much of the outcome with depend on the health of Armstrong.
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