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BGI staff predictions: North Carolina vs. Notre Dame

No. 11 Notre Dame (6-1) and unranked North Carolina (4-3) will meet for the 22nd time on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET on NBC) at Notre Dame Stadium to continue what has been a one-sided series to date.

The Fighting Irish have won 19 of the first 21 gridiron matchups between the two schools. That .905 winning percentage is the best by Notre Dame against any opponent it has faced a minimum of 20 times. Navy is No. 2 on that list at .855 (79-13-1), while Georgia Tech is No. 3 at .819 (29-6-1).

This year’s matchup will mark the first time in 55 years that the Irish and Tar Heels have played each other in back-to-back seasons, and is actually part of a three-year stretch they will face each other. Notre Dame notched a 31-17 win in Chapel Hill, N.C., last year and will play there again during the 2022 season.

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For what it’s worth, both Carolina victories in the series occurred in Chapel Hill, a 12-7 decision in 1960 and a 29-24 victory in 2008. Notre Dame boasts a 12-0 mark against the Tar Heels in South Bend.

The last matchup in South Bend occurred in 2014, when the Irish came away with a thrilling 50-43 shootout victory over the Tar Heels in a game that produced a combined 1,029 yards of total offense (519 for Notre Dame and 510 for UNC). The 93 combined points are the most scored by two teams in regulation play in the 91-year history of Notre Dame Stadium.

Irish head coach Brian Kelly is 3-0 against North Carolina, also winning 33-10 in Chapel Hill in 2017. UNC head coach Mack Brown is 0-1 against the Irish.

Todd Burlage, contributing writer

Notre Dame 31, North Carolina 24

Armed with a veteran team and a 15-10 win-loss program rebound during his first two seasons back in Chapel Hill, N.C., third-year North Carolina head coach Mack Brown brought huge expectations into this season after returning 21 of 22 starters from his 2020 Orange Bowl team, including Heisman Trophy candidate Sam Howell at quarterback.

When Brown returned in 2019 for a second tour of duty at North Carolina, the Tar Heels went only 5-18 in 2017-18. But inconsistency from Howell and other important veterans this season will keep the 3.5-point underdog Tar Heels from pulling a prime-time upset in this game.

That said, UNC’s mix of inconsistency and explosiveness is unsettling. A team picked in the preseason to win the ACC Coastal Division, North Carolina averages 50.3 points a game in its four wins and 19.0 points in its three losses.

Irish head coach Brian Kelly has lost only one regular-season game to an ACC opponent since 2016 (Miami, 2017) — an ACC win list that includes a 31-17 victory over Brown’s Tar Heels last season.

Steve Downey, managing editor for Blue & Gold Illustrated

Notre Dame 38, North Carolina 27

The Tar Heels earned their highest preseason ranking (No. 10, one spot behind the Irish) since 1997, but have been maddeningly inconsistent from the start in 2021. Their Jekyll-and-Hyde season began with a 17-10 loss at Virginia Tech the opening weekend, and includes embarrassing losses at Georgia Tech (45-22) and home against Florida State (35-25).

Still, junior quarterback Sam Howell — who had produced the most passing touchdowns (86) and yards (9,044) in the nation since 2019 heading into UNC’s bye week — makes them a dangerous opponent. The Tar Heels are averaging 471.1 total yards (15th nationally) and 36.9 points per game (18th), and feature one of the most lethal passing connections in college football with Howell and sophomore wide receiver Josh Downs. The duo has already hooked up 60 times for 837 yards and eight touchdowns.

The absence of the injured Kyle Hamilton is a concern, especially after watching USC wide receiver Drake London rack up 15 receptions for 171 yards last week with the star junior safety on the sidelines for most of the game. The onus will be on the Irish pass rush — led by junior defensive end Isaiah Foskey and his 8.0 sacks (tied for third nationally) — to slow down Howell and Co. An underperforming Tar Heels offensive line that ranks 100th nationally in tackles for loss allowed per game (5.86) and 127th in sacks allowed per game (3.86) has been vulnerable.

The Irish rushing attack has started showing signs of life, producing its two best ground outputs — 180 yards against Virginia Tech and 170 versus USC — of the season in the past two games. The positive momentum should continue against a North Carolina defense that ranks 80th in the country rushing defense (158.9 yards allowed per game) and 91st in scoring defense (28.9 points per game).

Notre Dame is the better team and should win this game comfortably.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish football junior running back Kyren Williams vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels
Junior running back Kyren Williams and the Fighting Irish notched a 31-17 win at North Carolina last season. (Courtesy Notre Dame)

Patrick Engel, editor

Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 31

The preseason media darling Tar Heels have disappointed, but that doesn’t mean they’re incapable of pushing the Irish. Especially with Kyle Hamilton out. Brian Kelly offered profuse praise of their talent and ceiling when it clicks. The passing attack is still potent, led by early round quarterback prospect Sam Howell and All-America candidate wide receiver Josh Downs.

The task is harder without Hamilton. Yes, I know the same Houston Griffith and DJ Brown safety tandem that will start Saturday helped shut down North Carolina in the second half of last year’s win. That also felt like a pleasant surprise rather than the most likely outcome. Do you really feel comfortable heading into this without Hamilton? I’m not sure there’s a reasonable yes.

Same time, North Carolina has underachieved for several reasons. An offensive line that returned all five starters hasn’t improved. It’s the same middling unit as last year and one Notre Dame is capable of exploiting. An Irish offense that offered more evidence of sustainability should also find enough room to operate against a below-average defense.

The key will be limiting North Carolina’s RPO game and Downs’ impact, even if the latter puts up an impressive raw stat line like USC’s Drake London did last week. I expect to see a nickel base defense and increased dime package usage once again.

Tyler Horka, staff writer

North Carolina 31, Notre Dame 27

All signs point to Notre Dame continuing to improve. The Fighting Irish strung together consecutive victories in a hostile environment at Virginia Tech and at home against rival USC.

But even the 31-16 win over the Trojans wasn’t as convincing as it might have appeared. The Irish were out-gained for the fifth time in seven games this season, after all. Notre Dame has won four of those five games, but how long can a trend like that continue without a major slip up?

North Carolina ranks No. 14 nationally in yards per game with 471.1. Notre Dame has to go against that high-octane offense without junior safety Kyle Hamilton, too. Head coach Brian Kelly said he is most worried about stopping the Tar Heels on third down. UNC ranks No. 13 in the country in that statistic at 48.86 percent.

Much has been made of Notre Dame’s new up-tempo offense, and rightfully so. It worked admirably in the late stages against Virginia Tech and throughout the game against USC. The Irish still only gained 383 yards against the Trojans, though.

North Carolina is an average defensive team, ranking 64th nationally at 378.1 yards per game. Notre Dame will move the ball and score, but North Carolina — coming off a bye and badly needing a signature win this season — will do just a tad more to leave South Bend with an upset victory.

Greg Ladky, managing editor for BlueandGold.com

Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 26

North Carolina’s bye week was well timed. Its defense has given up 35 or more points to its last four opponents not named “Duke,” including 45 points to Georgia Tech and 42 to Miami. The Tar Heels’ defense has looked hesitant as opponents have found success, particularly on the ground, with running quarterbacks. Paging Tyler Buchner for a few more reps even if Jack Coan is playing well.

What North Carolina will need much more than a bye week to figure out is how to play football at a level of physicality that matches Notre Dame. Mack Brown spoke about physicality this week. It is the missing ingredient to his program’s climb to the ACC summit. The Heels rank 80th nationally in run defense, and its offensive front is giving up too many plays behind the line of scrimmage (100th in tackles for loss allowed and 127th in sacks allowed).

Sam Howell is a true dual-threat quarterback — maybe the nation’s best. He can attack the entire field with his arm, and has the ability to rip off big-chunk runs. Like USC, the Heels throw most of their passes to one receiver — Josh Downs. He works out of the slot and knows how to find open space anywhere on the field. Without Kyle Hamilton, Downs is a huge concern.

But, ultimately, unless North Carolina’s defensive front is playing free and fast (which they have not), I think Notre Dame’s front will have the edge on both sides of the ball, and once again, Brown will exit a game against the Fighting Irish knowing he has the horses at the skill positions to win, but can’t pound it in the trenches to Notre Dame’s level.

Mike Singer, recruiting insider

Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 19

According to FanDuel, North Carolina’s win total going into the season was set at 9.5, and the Tar Heels had the second-best odds to win the ACC championship. At 4-3 — with two losses against lowly Georgia Tech and Florida State — Mack Brown’s squad has been a disappointment in 2021. Look for the Irish to cruise to a double-digit win against North Carolina.

Kyle Hamilton was out against the Tar Heels last season when Notre Dame won comfortably on the road, and this North Carolina team isn’t nearly as good as last year’s. Now granted, Notre Dame has taken a step back too, but I still like the Irish to win comfortably at home.

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