BGI staff predictions: Navy vs. Notre Dame
After a one-year hiatus, the No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) and Navy Midshipmen (2-6) will resume their rivalry on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET on NBC) in South Bend. Thanks to the pandemic, last year marked the first time since 1926 that they didn’t face each other.
The series between the Irish and Midshipmen — who were set to open the 2020 season in Ireland for the first time since 2012 — was the third longest, never interrupted rivalry in college football at 93 consecutive years before COVID-19 came along. (Notre Dame and Navy will now open the 2023 season in Ireland.)
Under head coach Brian Kelly, the Irish have won eight of 10 against the Midshipmen. The only two defeats came in 2010 (35-17) in Kelly’s first season in charge and in 2016 (28-27) in a game played in Jacksonville, Fla.
This year marks the 40th game between the two schools with Notre Dame ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Press poll (the Irish are No. 8 in the AP and Coaches polls, and No. 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings).
To date, the Fighting Irish are 36-2-1 against Navy when they are ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. The last time a top-10 Irish team lost in this series was all the way back in 1957, when head coach Terry Brennan’s 4-0 and No. 5-ranked Irish lost 20-6 to the No. 16 Midshipmen in South Bend. That year, Navy went on to finish No. 5 while Notre Dame was No. 10 — the last time both schools placed in the top 10 of the final AP poll.
All told, Navy has defeated four Notre Dame teams that were ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the game. In addition to the victory in 1957, the Midshipmen edged the No. 13 Irish 3-0 in 1936, knocked off No. 2 Notre Dame 32-12 in 1944 and defeated the No. 19 Irish 23-21 in 2009.
Notre Dame is a 21-point favorite against Navy in this year’s matchup.
Season-to-date records
Todd Burlage — 6-2 straight up, 4-4 against the spread
Steve Downey — 6-2, 5-3
Patrick Engel — 6-2, 4-4
Tyler Horka — 6-2, 4-4
Greg Ladky — 3-1, 3-1
Mike Singer — 6-2, 5-3
Todd Burlage, contributing writer
Notre Dame 45, Navy 7
After becoming one of the best do-more-with-less coaches in the country, 14th-year Navy frontman Ken Niumatalolo finds himself trying to right the ship after his program has fallen on hard times with only five wins in the last 18 games since the start of the 2020 season.
In eight games this season, the Midshipmen (2-6) scored more than 20 points only twice, dropping Navy to last in the 11-team American Athletic Conference and into the bottom 10 of the NCAA in scoring (18.1 points per game). With only four returning starters on offense from 2020, Navy has been unable to follow its usual ball-control, shorten-the-game, limit-possessions blueprint to success.
Niumatalolo has beaten Notre Dame three times in 12 tries, with two of those victories coming against Irish head coach Brian Kelly (2010 and 2016). But with the Navy program on a downslide, Notre Dame’s talent advantage and familiarity with defending a triple-option offense leave this as the easiest game on the schedule for the No. 10 Irish (7-1).
Kelly has won three straight in this series, the previous two by 22 and 32 points, respectively.
Steve Downey, managing editor for Blue & Gold Illustrated
Notre Dame 41, Navy 3
Playing against the Midshipmen is always a chore because of the defensive discipline required to play against its triple-option attack. Just ask No. 6-ranked Cincinnati, which struggled against Navy before notching a 27-20 win Oct. 23. However, Notre Dame has taken control of this series, winning eight of the last nine. The last two matchups in 2018 and 2019 were particularly one-sided, with the Fighting Irish winning by an average of 27.0 points per game.
Navy lacks the kind of game-changer at quarterback it has had in previous years — such as Ricky Dobbs, Keenan Reynolds and Malcolm Perry — and it has shown. The Midshipmen rank 121st nationally in scoring offense (18.1 points per game) and 127th in total offense (281.5 yards per game). Sophomore quarterback Tai Lavatai is averaging only 2.1 yards per carry and the rushing offense — which ranked among the top six nationally every season from 2002-19 before last year’s No. 52 finish (177.6) — is just 14th (222.5) so far this year.
The Midshipmen’s passing game is typically good for a big play or two, but has been non-existent. They failed to complete a single pass in last week’s 20-17 win at Tulsa, and rank dead last in the country in passing yards per game (59.0) and 126th in team passing efficiency (101.73 rating). Navy also ranks just 107th nationally in third-down conversion rate (35.1).
It should also be noted that Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman is not unfamiliar with defending Navy’s triple option. The last time a Freeman-led defense faced the Midshipmen in 2018, his Cincinnati squad limited them to just 124 rushing yards on 52 attempts (2.4 yards per rush), and 171 total yards, in a 42-0 shutout.
The Navy defense has been serviceable — 40th nationally in rushing defense (131.1 yards allowed per game) and 43rd in total defense (347.0) — but the burden put upon it by its weak offense and shoddy special teams play (one punt and two kickoff return touchdowns) has still resulted in it allowing 30.0 points per game, which ranks just 94th nationally.
Notre Dame has scored at least 38 points in seven of its last 10 matchups with Navy, and should do so again. The Irish will win this one in a runaway.
Patrick Engel, editor
Notre Dame 35, Navy 14
I get the sense Notre Dame fans rarely feel rewarded with wins over Navy, save for the 2019 disposal in a top-20 matchup. The triple option is a pain to defend and wears down opponents, even in games where the Midshipmen trail wire-to-wire.
Peskiness only goes so far, though. That’s the theme of this series overall, especially in recent years with Navy’s success. But this season has been anything but successful. Navy averages 1.87 fewer yards per play than its opponents (4.06 to 5.93). The former figure is second-to-last among 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams.
Notre Dame’s run defense has sprung some leaks the last two games, but some of those were in situations where the Irish were inviting the run in exchange for preventing long passing plays and quick scores. This time, Notre Dame won’t be so generous in its run defense tactics. It knows what’s coming with the triple option. It also shut down Wisconsin’s similarly run-heavy attack.
The Irish defense has a few mainstays who have faced the option before. Coordinator Marcus Freeman saw the option in his time at Cincinnati and engineered a shutout of the Midshipmen in 2018. This feels like a game where everything clicks for Notre Dame.
Tyler Horka, staff writer
Notre Dame 38, Navy 14
Notre Dame fans shouldn’t be blamed one bit for fearing the Fighting Irish might trip up any given year against Navy. The Midshipmen present such a unique challenge in their style of play, and this being an annual rivalry dating back to 1927 is enough to suggest Navy wants nothing more than to knock off Notre Dame every time the two teams kick off against each other.
But that has only happened four times since 1964, and it’s not going to happen for a fifth in 2021. This Navy team simply isn’t good enough on either side of the ball to go into Notre Dame Stadium and defeat the No. 10 Fighting Irish.
Of teams ranked in the top 20 nationally in total rushing attempts, Navy is the only one averaging less than four yards per carry. The Midshipmen haven’t changed their offensive philosophy this season. They still run the ball a lot — more than any team in the country other than Air Force. But they just don’t run it effectively. That plays right into the hands of a Notre Dame defense with a solid front four and athletic linebackers in graduate student Drew White and juniors Jack Kiser and JD Bertrand.
Notre Dame has been humming along offensively the last two weeks, meanwhile, and I don’t expect that to change against Navy. Junior running back Kyren Williams is in a good position to reach at least 100 rushing yards for the third straight game, and graduate student quarterback Jack Coan should throw somewhere around 200 passing yards and a couple touchdowns. That’ll be enough to get the job done, especially if he goes a fourth straight game without recording an interception. He hasn’t thrown one since the loss to Cincinnati Oct. 2.
Greg Ladky, managing editor for BlueandGold.com
Notre Dame 38, Navy 20
I think this Navy team is better than 2-6, but not as good as the Navy teams over the last 15 years that have defeated Notre Dame, pulled off upsets against other ranked teams, and have made one more fan base swear to never make fun of Notre Dame again for playing Navy.
When Navy beat Notre Dame in 2016, the Irish were not good, and Navy quarterback Will Worth was the best player on the field. In 2009, Navy beat Notre Dame with Ricky Dobbs at quarterback and Vince Murray at fullback — an outstanding combination.
The 2021 Irish are not as good as last year, but this Notre Dame team is still better than its 2009 and 2016 versions, and I don’t think anyone in the Navy backfield is as difficult to handle as Worth, Dobbs or Murray.
Navy’s formula for beating Notre Dame has always included an outstanding player in the offensive backfield (particularly a quarterback or fullback), against a mediocre Notre Dame team. That formula is not there this year.
Navy keeps it within the spread with another clean performance, but Notre Dame is able to move the ball with relative ease and make big plays on offense to outscore the Midshipmen.
Mike Singer, recruiting insider
Notre Dame 38, Navy 21
This is a trap game spot. Notre Dame is coming off a stretch of a handful of marquee opponents and has lowly Navy coming to town, but don’t let the Midshipmen’s abysmal record fool you. They played tough against Cincinnati and SMU this season despite losses and ran past UCF earlier this year.
Notre Dame may be caught looking ahead to Virginia, but I still like the Irish to win by double digits. It will help Notre Dame’s defense considering that new defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman has coached against the triple option regularly.
It’ll be close in the first half, but the Irish will pull away in the second half, although they won’t quite cover the three-touchdown spread.
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