BGI staff predictions: Cincinnati at Notre Dame

Saturday’s matchup between No. 9 Notre Dame (4-0) and No. 7 Cincinnati (3-0) possesses plenty of great storylines with all the connections between the two schools, but even more importantly this top-10 showdown is ripe with College Football Playoff implications.

The Bearcats find themselves on the fringe of playoff contention and have an opportunity to bolster their résumé. A victory in South Bend would go a long way in helping Cincinnati become the first Group of Five school to crash the CFP party.

This also represents an important game for the Fighting Irish since Cincinnati is likely the best team remaining on their schedule. Take care of business here, and they could find themselves in contention for their third CFP berth in four years despite some early season struggles.

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This will mark the third time during the Brian Kelly era that the Fighting Irish have hosted a top-10 showdown. Last year, the No. 4-ranked Fighting Irish notched a thrilling 47-40 double-overtime victory over No. 1 Clemson. In 2018, Kelly’s No. 8 Irish hammered No. 7 Stanford 38-17.

Notre Dame and Cincinnati have met once before, but that meeting took place 121 years ago. The Irish blanked the Bearcats 58-0 on Oct. 5, 1900.

Notre Dame 24, Cincinnati 20

The No. 9 Irish (4-0) have won 26 straight games at home, but with NFL-caliber talent embedded in almost each of its position groups, No. 7 Cincinnati (3-0) presents arguably the toughest test during the streak, sans No. 1 Clemson last season.

In his fifth year, Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell has guided the Bearcats to a 34-6 record over the last three-plus seasons to become one of the hottest coaching commodities in the country.

Fickell is the reigning AAC Coach of the Year on a Cincinnati team that returned 13 starters (six on offense, six on defense and one specialist).

Cincinnati may be a Group of Five team, but many consider it a viable candidate with a win here to earn the first-ever College Football Playoff berth for a non-Power Five Conference school.

This was the quickest game on the Irish home schedule to sell out, so expect at least 10,000 Cincinnati faithful to be in attendance with massive interest and a relatively short four-hour drive.

Notre Dame 20, Cincinnati 17

Cincinnati possess NFL-caliber talent on both sides of the ball, which was evident when it went toe-to-toe with Georgia in last year’s Peach Bowl before falling 24-21 on a last-second field goal. Many of those players are back and so is head coach Luke Fickell, who has guided UC to a 34-6 record (.850 winning percentage) since the start of the 2018 campaign.

Expect defense to rule the day in South Bend on Saturday. Pro Football Focus has Cincinnati with the nation’s fourth-best defensive grade (90.4) and Notre Dame with the ninth-best (89.0), and both have been proficient at forcing turnovers. The Bearcats’ nation-leading streak of 20 straight games with at least one takeaway was snapped in their 2021 opener, but they have bounced back to force eight turnovers (six interceptions and two fumbles) in their last two contests. Meanwhile, the Irish have forced 12 turnovers in four games, including a national-high nine interceptions.

Notre Dame’s inability to run the ball effectively is a concern. Save for a few big plays from Kyren Williams and Tyler Buchner, the Irish have struggled mightily, averaging just 2.3 yards per carry and 80.0 yards per game. That puts a lot of pressure on the passing game to come up with some big plays. Speaking of pressure, the Irish have allowed 21 sacks (129th nationally) through four games and PFF rates the Bearcats’ pass rush No. 1 in the nation (91.1 grade) despite just four sacks in their first three contests.

The Irish will have their hands full with Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder. He is a dynamic player who can beat you with his arm and legs, and has done a nice job spreading the ball around with scoring passes to six different players so far this year. However, Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman knows him well from his time at UC and should be able to come up with a game plan that will slow him down.

Notre Dame’s impressive defensive performances the past two weeks against Purdue and Wisconsin have made a believer out of me, and I expect Kyle Hamilton and Co. to be the difference in a hard-fought defensive battle against the Bearcats.

Notre Dame 22, Cincinnati 19

No one seemed to believe Cincinnati was the best team on Notre Dame’s schedule when the Bearcats were ranked ahead of the Irish in the preseason Associated Press Top 25.

A month in, though, it’s hard to argue for anyone else. The No. 7 Bearcats are 3-0 with a win over Indiana, are allowing 4.15 yards per play (10th nationally) and a 44.3 percent opponent completion rate (first). Meanwhile, USC has already fired its head coach, North Carolina’s defense and offensive line remain hard to trust, Wisconsin is a mess on offense and Virginia Tech appears enigmatic as expected.

Cincinnati’s skilled secondary, led by potential first-round pick cornerback Ahmad Gardner, poses the most difficult test yet for Notre Dame’s vertical passing game. Just about any defensive line is a challenge for Notre Dame these days, and Cincinnati’s has playmakers. Once again, moving the ball feels like a chore.

The Irish’s own defense, though, has allowed just eight plays of 20-plus yards and forced seven turnovers in the last two games. Its last two opponents were a combined 6 of 33 on third and fourth down. Notre Dame’s defense will be the difference in this one.

Cincinnati 31, Notre Dame 24

Yes, the Notre Dame defense is playing as well as it has all year. And yes, the Fighting Irish have not lost a home game in 26 attempts. But the defense is not infallible by any stretch, and all things must come to an end eventually.

This version of Notre Dame simply isn’t reliable enough offensively to run the table. The Irish are going to trip up somewhere in the schedule, and head coach Brian Kelly said it himself — this Cincinnati team is the toughest opponent Notre Dame will have faced to this point. And it’ll likely stand up as such by the end of the year, too.

Cincinnati fifth-year senior quarterback Desmond Ridder is not Graham Mertz. He’s not going to put the game on a golden platter for the Golden Domers. Remember, Wisconsin still held a three-point lead in the fourth quarter before sophomore Chris Tyree’s kick return touchdown and the ensuing Notre Dame defense pick party.

Cincinnati has playmakers at every level of the defense, from defensive end Myjai Sanders to sophomore linebacker Deshawn Pace to junior cornerback Ahmad Gardner. That’s a bad omen for a Notre Dame offense that has been anything but consistent this season.

I predict Ridder and his running mates to do enough offensively, and it will be the Bearcats who score a defensive or special teams touchdown that ends up being the difference.

Notre Dame 27, Cincinnati 23

Brian Kelly was not trying to imitate a common Lou Holtz motivation strategy — blushing over the upcoming opponent — by calling Cincinnati “the best team we have played up to this point.”

The Bearcats will likely be the best team Notre Dame has played by the season’s end point as well.

Cincinnati is veteran and talented on defense, with a defensive line that will be the best unit the Irish will play this year. However, that talent has yet to pay off statistically. The Bearcats rank just 110th in sacks per game nationally, and 59th in team tackles per loss.

Regardless, will the Cincinnati defensive front tee off on a vulnerable Irish offensive line?

That is what I will be watching, because I don’t think Cincinnati has the explosiveness on offense to score much on Notre Dame’s defense. Quarterback Desmond Ridder can play — he proved that all last season, but I don’t see Cincinnati’s offensive line able to hold up against Notre Dame’s deep and talented front.

Offensively, Notre Dame will need Kevin Austin Jr., Chris Tyree, and maybe even a long-awaited deep connection to Braden Lenzy to win this game. A home crowd will allow for clear communication within the offensive line, and between quarterbacks and receivers. I like the Irish offensive line to make a small step forward, and win just enough battles to give whoever plays quarterback the time to make a couple big passing plays.

The Irish extend their home winning streak to 27, but just barely.

Notre Dame 28, Cincinnati 21

Cincinnati comes into Notre Dame Stadium with an unbeaten record and faces its marquee opponent of the season. A big storyline of the week has been the Bearcats facing its former defensive coordinator in Marcus Freeman. In addition, Brian Kelly and assistants Mike Mickens and Jeff Quinn coached at Cincinnati, too.

I’ve got Notre Dame by a touchdown. I don’t have sound reasoning for it, though. Through three games, I’m not sure what to make of the Bearcats. Their win against Indiana isn’t blowing me away.

And what to make of Notre Dame? While they’ve beaten their last two opponents by 42 points, the Irish outscored Purdue and Wisconsin by a combined total of 41-3 in the fourth quarter. Let’s not forget the Irish trailed Wisconsin 13-10 early final quarter before the Badgers self-destructed, and it was a one score game against Purdue until Kyren Williams broke a run with 6:05 left in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame’s record is a perfect 4-0, but their play has been far, far from infallible.

My reasoning for going with Notre Dame is simply because I refuse to pick against the Irish at home until they lose. Kelly’s resilient squad will figure out how to eek out another close win.

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