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ANALYSIS: Notre Dame Red Zone Not Yet A Red Flag

Throughout most of Brian Kelly’s first seven seasons at Notre Dame (2010-16), the Fighting Irish hovered in the 70s nationally in red-zone (at or inside the opponent’s 20-yard line) scoring efficiency.

Even in 2015, despite a 10-3 record and an offense that featured four future first-round picks, including wideout Will Fuller, second-round quarterback DeShone Kizer and third-round running back C.J. Prosise, it was 88th at 81.1 percent.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish fifth-year senior quarterback Ian Book versus Louisville this past Saturday
Notre Dame scored one touchdown versus Louisville in five red-zone chances, which included a missed fake field goal and running out the clock. (Notre Dame Athletics)
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A major reason for the inefficiency was turnovers. During the two-year period in 2014-15, the Fighting Irish led the nation in red zone turnovers with 14 (eight in 2014 and six in 2015).

Suddenly in 2017 — the “Kelly II” era that has seen Notre Dame post a 37-6 ledger — the red zone efficiency markedly improved.

• In 2017 it finished No. 14 by scoring 42 out of 46 times (.913 percentage), with 35 of them touchdowns (24 on runs).

• In 2018, when it went to the College Football Playoff, Notre Dame dropped to 44th with 45 scores on 52 attempts (.865), 32 of them touchdowns. It still was an upgrade from Kelly’s earlier years.

• Last year was the best yet with a No. 10 finish tallying 51 times in 55 tries, with 42 of the scores touchdowns.

However, there is an important caveat in these stats that can be misleading: touchdown percentage versus field-goal percentage.

For example, last year Kansas State finished No. 1 in red zone efficiency by scoring 50 out of a possible 52 attempts (96.1 percent). However, only 35 of those 52 (67.3 percent) were touchdowns.

Meanwhile, 42 of Notre Dame’s 55 chances (76.4 percent) were touchdowns, nine percent higher than the Wildcats.

Which would you rather have? I’d go with the Irish because six points is greater than three.

Here’s Part II of what can be so misleading: Would you believe that Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea’s troops were 129th out of 130 teams last season in red zone defense at 96.7 percent?

Yes, the opponent did score 29 times out of 30 — but only 17 resulted in touchdowns, or 56.7 percent, not much worse than the 52.8 percent in the Playoff year in 2018. Anytime you hover around 50 percent in red zone defense with touchdowns, that is outstanding.

Context is vital. The 2019 national champ LSU finished 26th in red zone defense (103 spots higher than Notre Dame) but it allowed 26 touchdowns on 40 chances — a clip of 65.0 percent that was nine percentage points worse than Notre Dame.

Earlier in Kelly’s tenure, a bread-and-butter play in red-zone territory centered on either fades or back-shoulder tosses into the end zone. But when quarterback Brandon Wimbush’s running skills (16 rushing TDs in 2017, a school record by a QB) and a powerful, veteran offensive line were combined, the Irish became more lethal by keeping it simpler.

“We've been run-first down there, which was a commitment that we were going to make, and that has helped us down there,” Kelly explained. “…“Maybe the right word would be insistence — persistence of wanting to run the football down there. We've taken away a lot of the exotic looks that we've gotten in the past down there and have a pretty good idea of what we're going to get.”

He has something similar in 2020 with the most veteran line ever at Notre Dame, exciting young backs in sophomore Kyren Williams and freshman Chris Tyree, and even a career 1,000-yard rusher in quarterback Ian Book, whose five rushing touchdowns lead this year’s edition.

He believes last Saturday might have been an aberration with only one touchdown in five red-zone chances. Two failures included a fake field goal and then running out the clock at the end. Of the 21 chances Notre Dame has had, the five failures were an interception (versus Duke), a failed toss-sweep to Tyree to run out the clock versus Florida State, two other cases of “taking a knee” to end a game (including last week), and the fake field goal versus the Cardinals that didn't pick up a first down.

“Coaches have to be able to highlight individual players down there,” Kelly said. “We have a plan moving forward.”

That plan also includes continuing to get the receiving corps involved more to help balance out an offense — especially because Saturday's opponent, Pitt, is No. 1 against the run (61.5 yards per game).

Likewise, that doesn’t necessarily mean running and passing for the same amount of yards is “balance.” Rather, it’s about being able to run for 250-300 yards when the defensive alignment dictates it, or pass for 250-300 versus other schemes that dictate airing it out.

“When I talk about balance from an offensive structure, I've always talked about the ability to be equally effective throwing it as running it,” Kelly. “We came out [versus Louisville] with the intention that you needed to respect our ability to throw it. We didn't complete enough passes where we had an opportunity to push the ball down the field, so that will continue to be a priority and focus that we're going to push the ball vertically down the field.

“… We know where we need to get better moving forward — attacking defenses down the field in our passing game. We're not there yet and we have to get going.”

For now, the ground attack remains the identity and calling card.

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