Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly has been in South Bend for 11 seasons. His Irish have won at least eight games in all but one of them. Notre Dame went 4-8 in 2016 — the only year in which Kelly did not lead Notre Dame to a bowl game, too.
Of course, there were the 2012 and 2013 seasons in which Notre Dame had to vacate 12 and nine wins, respectively, because of academic violations. Irish fans remember what happened in those seasons, though — especially in ‘12.
The span of at least eight wins in 10 of the last 11 seasons is an impressive one. The Irish have reached double digits in wins in four of the last five as well. Pro Football Focus, however, does not see that streak stretching to five of six.
In its annual preview magazine, PFF listed Notre Dame’s projected win total at 7.4. That’s the lowest of any of last season’s College Football Playoff participants. Alabama has a projection of 10.7 wins. Clemson and Ohio State are projected to win 10.4 and 10.3 games, respectively.
For reference, Boston College has a projected win total of 7.8. The Eagles haven't won eight games since 2009. Even USC, a program that has lost four of the last five games to Notre Dame, has a projected win total of 8.5.
The reasons for Notre Dame's severe drop off are obvious. Notre Dame lost a two- and a half-year starter at quarterback. The Irish have to replace four of last year’s five starters on the offensive line, and there still aren’t any surefire game breakers in the passing game.
And those deficiencies are just on offense.
“Notre Dame’s strengths and weaknesses are pretty well defined and similar to last year,” PFF wrote, “but are just a bit more severe in either direction.”
Departed quarterback Ian Book was a gamer, but it’s no secret he struggled to hit passes deep downfield. Whether that was his own downfall or that of his unproven wide receivers — or, most likely, a combination of both — the problem was prevalent nonetheless. Notre Dame ranked No. 110 nationally in percentage of passing plays that were thrown at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage per PFF.
That issue could be exacerbated further in 2021.
“The big issue with this team is once again the passing offense, but this time around it’s a little bit more concerning,” PFF wrote.
Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan ranked 109th in average depth of target (7.5 yards) when he started all 14 games for the Badgers in 2019. Notre Dame also lost its top two yard-earning wide receivers from last year, Javon McKinley and Ben Skowronek, both of whom were large downfield targets standing at 6-2 and 6-3, respectively.
Coan will be throwing to a cast of wideouts in South Bend who left much to be desired in 2020. According to PFF, Notre Dame returns the third-least productive wide receiver group in the entire Football Bowl Subdivision.
The only returning wide receiver who amassed at least 100 yards last year is fifth-year senior Avery Davis, a 5-11 slot man. Davis had 24 catches for 322 yards and two touchdowns. Seniors Braden Lenzy and Joe Wilkins Jr. were next in line, each with seven catches, 63 yards and a touchdown apiece.
Coan will have to look frequently to sophomore tight end Michael Mayer. The 6-5 target had 42 catches for 450 yards and two scores as a true freshman. But PFF even has reservations about Mayer, an All-ACC third-team selection in his first collegiate season.
“He has the traits to be an elite tight end, and because this offense is expected to somewhat rely on him, it wouldn't be a surprise to see that come to fruition sooner rather than later,” PFF wrote.
Coan will also need the emergence of 6-2 senior Kevin Austin Jr. as a perimeter playmaker. Austin was hampered by injuries last year and finished with one catch for 18 yards. He is expected to start at boundary receiver.
Notre Dame’s saving grace could once again be its defense. If the Irish are to keep Kelly’s streak of winning at least eight games alive, then it’ll be because the likes of junior safety Kyle Hamilton and fellow experienced defenders such as senior defensive linemen Kurt Hinish, Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa and Jayson Ademilola offsetting offensive struggles and keeping Notre Dame in games.
“The Irish defense was the fifth-highest graded group in the Power Five last season, and they have every chance of cracking a top-10 spot nationally in 2021 with safety Kyle Hamilton, who has some of the best coverage ability of any player at the position, leading the way,” PFF wrote.
----
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, Blue & Gold Illustrated.
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
• Sign up for Blue & Gold's news alerts and daily newsletter.
• Subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.
• Follow us on Twitter: @BGINews, @Rivals_Singer, @PatrickEngel_, @tbhorka and @ToddBurlage.
• Like us on Facebook.
