3-2-1: Observations, Questions, A Prediction For Michigan Vs. Notre Dame
In roughly 48 hours, Notre Dame will take on a bitter rivalry that brings together two fanbases with serious vitriol for each other.
Fans of both teams love to criticize one another for current and past failures, which is why every time Notre Dame and Michigan play there is so much emotion invested in the outcome.
This is magnified ten-fold this Saturday because there’s a significant amount of uncertainty as to when the two teams will meet again. While the two schools are apparently talking about scheduling one another in the not so distant future, nothing is set in stone.
Will the winning fanbase have bragging rights for the next five years? What about 10? Could the two programs go even longer than that without playing?
To help you prepare for this game of paramount importance, Coach DeDario and I have once again come up with three observations, two questions and a prediction for you to ponder as you mentally prepare for this game.
THREE OBSERVATIONS
Michigan Puts the Ball on the Ground… A lot
The Wolverine’s turnover issues are well documented, but it’s still astounding to see that they're tied for 124th in fumbles lost on the season with nine.
That’s with not fumbling at all last weekend at Penn State, which can be viewed as both a positive and negative when contextualizing the statistic above.
It could mean Michigan is heading in the right direction, or it could be even more alarming that 124th in the nation is actually an improvement compared to previous weeks.
What’s even more interesting is that a majority of the Wolverine’s lost fumbles actually come while playing at home (5), despite playing three games at the Big House compared to four on the road.
This could be a sizeable advantage for Notre Dame, who is tied for seventh in the nation in fumbles recovered at eight.
Irish fans need to hope Notre Dame players focus on making a clean tackle instead of going for the ball. But if they do happen to knock it loose, an Irish defender is likely to jump on it.
Both Teams May Find Success in the Red Zone
Notre Dame has scored on 100 percent of drives in the red zone. Some of this has to do with a somewhat limited number of opportunities.
For instance, the Irish have scored on all 22 trips to the red zone. LSU has also made a field goal or scored a touchdown every time the team’s gotten the ball within the opponent’s 20-yard line but on 39 trips.
Still, Notre Dame should still find success in that part of the field, as Michigan has a middle-of-the-pack red zone defense that has allowed opponents to score on 81.3 percent of trips.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan is much worse in the red zone, having scored on just 24 of its 33 red zone trips, which ranks No. 113 in the FBS.
This would appear to be an advantage for Notre Dame, but the Irish lose much of their edge due to how poorly they’ve performed on defense in the red zone. They have allowed opponents to on 92.9 percent of red-zone trips.
This is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Notre Dame has allowed opponents to get within their 20-yard line just 14 times.
Wolverines are Still Stout on Defense
For as much as Michigan has struggled this year, on paper they still have one of the best overall defenses in the country.
According to ESPN’s defensive efficiency ratings, Michigan ranks No. 20 in overall defense. Based on yards allowed per game, the team is No. 14, giving up an average of 283.3 yards in each contest.
Even more impressive, the Wolverines allow just 163.6 passing yards per game and just 6.29 yards per attempt. They're also ahead of Notre Dame in sacks per game with an average of 3.29 in each contest this season.
While these numbers may not be quite where they were for Michigan in 2018, Notre Dame will still have to fight to score.
Book will see consistent pressure, how he responds will be key to the outcome of this game.
TWO QUESTIONS
How will Notre Dame use their numerous offensive weapons effectively against Michigan?
All during preseason and fall camp the excitement level for what the Notre Dame offense could be was on everyone’s lips. Explosive players all over the field and a second-year starting quarterback with expectations through the roof.
Then Cole Kmet and Michael Young broke their clavicles, followed by injuries to Jafar Armstrong and Lawrence Keys.
It just seemed like this offense was never going to be the potent offense we had all envisioned or even had all the pieces together at the same time to attempt to be that offense. Well seven games into the 2019 season the offense FINALLY has all the pieces available and I am sure offensive coordinator Chip Long is like a kid on Christmas morning.
The question is how can he utilize all these weapons in a way that benefits Notre Dame in this game?
We have seen how Braden Lenzy’s speed can be a difference-maker in his reverse against USC. We have seen Michael Young take a short pass to the house last season. We have the dynamic running ability of Jafar Armstrong and how he can break a game wide open with his legs.
One of the most exciting aspects of this game will be watching how Long juggles all these pieces. It may take a few games to really get them in a rhythm and carving out each player’s role in the offense.
What a fun problem for him to have.
2. Will Ian Book build off the final drive of the USC game?
Quarterback Ian Book has been the subject of ire for Notre Dame fans and writers alike throughout the 2019 season and for good reason.
I do not think it is debatable that he took a step backward following the 2018 season, beginning with the CFP game against Clemson. There are plenty of excuses that can be made for playing poorly against the eventual national champion but those excuses are put to bed when you start looking at the first few games of this season.
Ian Book has all the potential to be the quarterback Chip Long needs him to be: a distributor of the football. This is the reason that he replaced Brandon Wimbush last season.
He has a high football IQ, a high completion percentage and understands what Chip Long wants the offense to look like. The drive he had against USC to seal the victory for Notre Dame showed every one of those attributes in spades.
He was perfect in his two pass attempts and used his legs when he needed and wanted to. Ian Book can be dynamic in the run game when he needs to be and he has all the weapons a collegiate quarterback could ever want at his disposal. He just needs to trust his reads and trust his teammates to go out there and make plays.
If he does that the rest of the year then this offense will be taken to another level.
ONE PREDICTION
Notre Dame keeps their CFP hopes alive with a decisive win at Michigan.
This is an interesting game for Notre Dame for numerous reasons. If Notre Dame wins this game then that is what they were supposed to do and it just continues the narrative that they are on the potential path to 11 regular-season wins.
If Michigan wins this game, then Jim Harbaugh is no longer on the hot seat and Michigan is who they thought they were… until Ohio State that is. The fact of the matter is if Notre Dame wins this game then there is absolutely no reason they should lose again this season.
Yes, they have a trip to the Farm to play Stanford which has been a thorn in their side for quite some time but that game should not even be competitive. If Notre Dame finishes with 11 wins they will be in the CFP discussion. We all know they need things to happen around them and I think that will all fall into place.
The fact that Notre Dame has not won a major bowl since 1994 is still a monkey that Notre Dame needs to get off their backs and even if they fall short of the CFP they will have that opportunity.
At the end of the day, Notre Dame should win this game and there should be no doubts after the final whistle. All of the talking heads that had Michigan as a sure-fire playoff team should take notice. But then again it is Notre Dame and the haters will still be in full force.
----
• Talk about it inside Rockne’s Roundtable
• Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, Blue & Gold Illustrated.
• Follow us on Twitter: @BGINews, @BGI_LouSomogyi, @BGI_MikeSinger, @CoachDeDario and @AndrewMentock.
• Like us on Facebook.