3-2-1: Notre Dame Baseball Observations, Questions & Prediction
After sweeping North Carolina (21-21, 14-16 ACC) last weekend, Notre Dame (24-8, 21-8 ACC) continues its climb up the polls.
All six major college baseball polls now have the Irish in the top 10, with Baseball America and Perfect Game slotting them at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. D1 Baseball and USA Today, two of the more respected rankings, both have Notre Dame at No. 7.
Notre Dame has just two ACC series remaining and will host No. 18 Florida State (23-16, 15-12 ACC) this weekend at Frank Eck Stadium. The Seminoles are playing well as of late and have more talent on their roster than any team the Irish have faced since Louisville in late March.
Game one is Friday at 6 p.m. and the entire series will be broadcasted on the ACC Network.
3 Observations
The Irish take sole possession of first place in the ACC
Notre Dame did its job and swept North Carolina this past weekend. But when it comes to the ACC’s overall standings, the Irish also received some help from a fellow ACC team, as the Clemson Tigers also swept the No. 5 Louisville Cardinals.
The Irish and the Cardinals are now No. 1 and No. 2 in the ACC and Notre Dame has the advantage in both winning percentage and the loss column:
• Notre Dame — 21-8 (.724 winning percentage)
• Louisville — 14-9 (.609)
This is a significant development.
Louisville's series against Pitt was canceled, so they'll play three fewer conference games, but the Cardinals still have three ACC series left to play (Duke, UNC and Miami), whereas Notre Dame has two (No. 18 FSU and Virginia Tech).
The winner of the ACC Atlantic and the conference regular season will be decided by winning percentage, so winning more games than the Cardinals doesn't guarantee anything for the Irish.
Notre Dame has a tougher road remaining than Louisville, but the Irish are currently in the driver's seat and control their own destiny.
Kavadas trails in college baseball’s home run race
For much of the season, Irish first baseman Niko Kavadas led the NCAA in home runs per game, but since his long-ball production has slowed in recent weeks.
In Notre Dame’s last 10 games, the left-handed slugger has belted just three home runs — a solid rate for most college baseball players, but Kavadas’ home run average actually dipped to 0.47 per game. He’s now in second place in the NCAA behind FSU catcher Matheu Nelson, who’s hitting a dinger at a rate of 0.54 per contest.
Nelson is also ahead of Kavadas in total home runs. The Seminoles’ slugger leads the nation with 20 on the season, whereas Notre Dame’s top power hitter has 15. Nelson, however, has played in five more games.
That means, if Kavadas wants to get back in the race and lead the NCAA in home runs per game this season, he’ll have to win his head-to-head matchup with Nelson this weekend.
Either way, it should prove to be an entertaining weekend for fans. I won’t go as far as to say it’s reminiscent of the 1998 MLB home run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, but it’s exciting when the game’s home run leaders happen to play in the same division (the ACC Atlantic) and get to square off late in the season.
Tanner Kohlhepp is one of the best relief pitchers in college baseball
A few weeks ago, I wrote about how Tanner Kohlhepp has steadily recovered from an abysmal early season ERA after the right-handed relief pitcher struggled in his first two outings of the season.
Then last week the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association named Kohlhepp to their midseason watch list for the Stopper of the Year Award, which goes to college baseball’s top relief pitcher.
This past weekend against North Carolina, he further proved he was worthy of such an honor. In game one, he threw the final four and one-third innings of the game and picked up the win, giving up just three hits with no walks or runs allowed.
Two days later, Kohlhepp returned in game three to limit damage and get the Irish out of a bases-loaded jam with no outs. He ended up throwing two innings without allowing an earned run.
For as good as Kohlhepp has been this season, it’s also fair to expect that the sophomore righty continues to improve.
“He is still learning his craft,” said Notre Dame head coach Link Jarrett. “He hasn't thrown the number of innings at the college level that a lot of these guys have thrown. He's gained tremendous confidence. His first outing of his career at Notre Dame wasn't great.
"But we talked about how important he was and the stuff that he's running up there is going to help us win. He has just continued to evolve.”
2 Questions
Will Kavadas set Notre Dame’s home run record?
A month ago, Kavadas appeared to be a lock to set Notre Dame’s all-time home run record, besting the 20 bombs Frank Jacobs smacked in 1991.
But today, a record-setting season doesn’t seem so certain, as Kavadas has 15 home runs a week into May.
The Irish are essentially a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, so at a minimum Notre Dame will has 11 games left to play, which means Kavadas should tie the record if he can keep up his current home run rate of 0.47 dingers per game.
The better the Irish perform in the ACC and NCAA tournaments, the more opportunities Kavadas will have to tie or break the record.
It’s worth noting that Notre Dame will play significantly fewer games this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming the Irish only play 11 more contests, that will put their total for the season at 43 games. In 1991, Jacobs set the record in 61 games.
Can Notre Dame actually avoid dropping an ACC series?
It’s incredible that after playing 10 series in the ACC this season, Notre Dame has yet to lose one. This, of course, also includes a series split with Louisville after game three on March 28 was canceled due to weather.
In a normal season, the Irish would only have 10 ACC series and would already be done with conference play, but two extra series were added due to the COVID-19 pandemic in order to make sure everyone got in enough games. For instance, the Irish have had several of their non-conference games canceled this season.
If Notre Dame can defeat Florida State and Virginia Tech over the next three weekends, it would be quite the feat. But both teams are tough. FSU is in the top 25 and Virginia Tech was ranked for much of the season.
1 Prediction
Notre Dame will host an NCAA Tournament regional
Next week, the NCAA will narrow down the potential regional hosting sites to 20 college campuses. Then after conference tournaments are wrapped up, 16 of those 20 sites will be picked to host a regional on Selection Monday.
At this point in time, I’d be shocked if Notre Dame isn’t one of the 20 potential host sites, and as long as the Irish don’t have a late-season collapse, the Irish will be able to present an excellent resume to the selection committee.
Currently, D1 Baseball projects Notre Dame will be the No. 5 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, hosting a collection of Midwest teams in their regional. Thus, even if the Irish stumble against Florida State or Virginia Tech, they’ll still be considered one of the top 10 to 12 programs in the country.
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