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Will Notre Dame Win At Least 10 Games Again In 2021?

TODD BURLAGE: No, Too Many Prime Personnel Losses

After four straight seasons with at least 10 wins for a program that has won 41 of its last 46 regular-season games since 2017, of course the Fighting Irish are going to win at least 10 again in 2021, right?

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Center Jarrett Patterson (55) is the lone returning starter of what has been a formidable offensive line the past two years.
Center Jarrett Patterson (55) is the lone returning starter of what has been a formidable offensive line the past two years. (Andris Visockis)

Well, as veteran ESPN analyst Lee Corso often says during his prediction segment on the popular GameDay, “Not so fast, my friend!” He can also point to the 2020 LSU Tigers, who finished 5-5 this season after major attrition from the roster and coaching staff that a year earlier was 15-0 and national champs.


Making 2021 roster projections for Notre Dame became more difficult in October after the NCAA granted all 2020 players an extra year of eligibility next season because of the COVID-19 pandemic. But based on 2021 NFL Draft projections and some common sense, the Fighting Irish are first going to lose four of its five starters off arguably the best offensive line in the country.

The last time so many starters had to be replaced up front was in head coach Ty Willingham’s second season in 2003, when the Irish finished 5-7. This program is well ahead of where it was then, but it still will be a significant transition.

By the way, they’ll also need to replace Ian Book, the starting quarterback with the most wins ever at Notre Dame, and it’s anyone’s guess who will take the first snaps there in the Sunday, Sept. 5 opener at Florida State. Replacing defensive coordinator Clark Lea — a highly beloved and respected figure among the players — will not be a simple task either.

Assessing the quality of a future schedule eight months in advance leaves plenty of room for error. That said, with consecutive games from Sept. 25 to Oct. 30 against Wisconsin at Soldier Field in Chicago; home against Cincinnati, which finished No. 8 in the final 2020 College Football Playoff rankings; at Virginia Tech; home against USC, which played for a Pac-12 title; and home against North Carolina, a program on the rise under head coach Mack Brown, surviving this minefield with a rebuilt offensive line, a new quarterback and a transition at defensive coordinator will be too difficult.

Ten wins are a bar too high to reach in 2021.

LOU SOMOGYI: Yes, 10 Wins Are Now The Floor, Not The Ceiling

When projecting a new season, I don’t look as much on who is leaving and who is coming back, but more so the strength of schedule. After you become a top-10 operation the way Notre Dame has since 2017, it’s so much about who and when you play.

In 1990, Notre Dame had four straight No. 1 recruiting classes comprising its roster with a Hall of Fame head coach in Lou Holtz — yet still finished 9-2 because of a land-mine schedule that included co-Big Ten champs Michigan and Michigan State, superpower/reigning champ Miami, and consecutive games at SEC champ Tennessee, Penn State at home and at USC, among others. The residual effect of such a gauntlet helped result in “only” a 9-2 regular season.

When I peruse the 2021 schedule, I see two programs that can recruit at Notre Dame’s level: at Florida State in the opener, and USC at home, with the Trojans coming after an Irish bye week. FSU (3-6 in 2020) has been a grease fire for several years, including roster imbalance, and it seems USC head coach Clay Helton is on a perpetual hot seat. One of these two is still capable of pulling off the win, but not both.

Beware of that opener in Tallahassee. The last time the Irish opened on a Sunday night on the road was 2016 against a struggling 6-7 Texas program that desperately needed a win to regain some credibility, and the Longhorns indeed pulled off the upset. Florida State is facing a similar circumstance.

Toledo, Purdue, Navy, Virginia, Georgia Tech should get the Irish to at least six wins when including a quite conservative split between the Seminoles and Trojans.

Yes, Cincinnati had a fantastic year in 2020, but the Bearcats’ senior class in 2021 was ranked 47th in recruiting and the junior haul 89th. How would you feel if Notre Dame had those kind of classes? That should make it at least seven wins.

That leaves potential “upset specials” with Wisconsin, at Virginia Tech, North Carolina and at Stanford — but the Irish are still better than each, at least on paper. Worst case from that group should be 2-2, which in a down year leaves the Irish at 9-3 prior to a bowl win to get to 10.

Quarterback and the offensive line undoubtedly need revamping and Lea is not going to be simple to replace. Still, head coach Brian Kelly’s track record with first-year starting quarterbacks has been strong, including 12-1 with both Everett Golson (2012) and Book (2018) because of reverting to "basic tenets of football."

The 2021 edition won’t be as strong all-around as the 2020 unit, but the overall health of the program can still get it to 10 wins.

2021 Schedule

Sept. 5 — at Florida State

Sept. 11 — Toledo

Sept. 18 — Purdue

Sept. 25 — vs. Wisconsin (Soldier Field)

Oct. 2 — Cincinnati

Oct. 9 — at Virginia Tech

Oct. 23 — USC

Oct. 30 — North Carolina

Nov. 6 — Navy

Nov. 13 — at Virginia

Nov. 20 — Georgia Tech

Nov. 27 — at Stanford

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