What Brian Kelly sees as the key to improving Notre Dame’s red-zone offense
Notre Dame’s 2020 offense set Brian Kelly-era bests in Football Bowl Subdivision rankings in third down conversion rate (seventh) and yards per game (26th). It was top-35 nationally in yards per play (6.21), completion percentage (63.8) and yards per rush (5.02).
Yet it felt like the offense got the stink eye from the public as often as it earned praise. That’s a bit harsh on the whole, but red-zone missteps were an aggravating factor and persistent theme. Notre Dame ranked 102nd in red-zone scoring rate and 84th in touchdown rate. The former was a 92-spot drop from 2019. The latter was the team’s worst national ranking in that category since 2014.
Kelly isn’t hiding from it. For Notre Dame’s offense to reach new heights and score with the explosive teams it will face this year, he understands red-zone efficiency must go up. And he has identified where that leap needs to occur: in the air.
“We were extremely efficient in the red zone running the football, probably one of the best in the country,” Kelly said. “We were not throwing it. We were 10 touchdown passes to 16 opportunities. That ranked as one of the lowest in the country. We have to throw it better in the red zone.”
Kelly’s assertion is statistically supported.
Notre Dame had 25 rushing touchdowns in the red zone last season, sixth-most nationally, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS). No college football team scored more touchdowns out of 14 personnel (1 running back, four tight ends) — Notre Dame’s go-to goal-line rushing formation.
The Irish’s yards per carry in the red zone (2.5) is the lowest among the top 15 teams in red-zone rushing attempts, but they were effective in putting the ball in the end zone via the ground game. That yards per rush figure is also partially a function of all those heavy formations.
Passing, though, was often a misadventure. Notre Dame’s 44.4 red-zone completion rate ranked 95th nationally. It ranked 61st in sack rate, 88th in passing efficiency and 97th in catchable throw rate in the red zone.
Sophomore tight end Michael Mayer — the Irish’s best mismatch problem and co-leading receiver — caught just four of his 10 red-zone targets. SIS deemed only five as catchable. He snagged just two touchdowns all season, a testament to the red-zone problems.
Red-zone missed opportunities allowed a middling Louisville team to hang around and nearly pick off Notre Dame at home last season. They nearly cost it a win in the first meeting with Clemson. The Irish’s first red-zone possession of the season ended in an interception on a throw intended for Mayer. It was a precursor for a season’s worth of struggles.
Continuing the same theme could allow upstart Florida State to linger and grow more upset-minded during Sunday’s 2021 opener in Tallahassee.
“We have to be more effective when we do have those opportunities,” Kelly said. “When those situations arise, we have to catch it, throw it and be on the same page doing it.”
Notre Dame also won’t have the luxury of a Joe Moore Award finalist offensive line, which it leaned on in those goal-line situations. The Irish dropped back to throw 76 times and called 103 runs (excluding sacks and scrambles) in the red zone – a 57.5 percent run-play rate. Outside the red zone, they called passes 53 percent of the time.
Kelly wants to see less of a difference between those two numbers this season.
“We were stubborn, but we were good at running the football down there,” Kelly said. “But we weren’t as balanced as I’d like. There has to be more balance, and that comes from throwing it more efficiently in the red zone.”
Notre Dame relied on Mayer and receiver Ben Skowronek (19 combined red-zone targets) when it reached the cusp of the end zone last year. Mayer and receiver Kevin Austin Jr. figure to be go-to targets inside the 20 this season.
Notre Dame also feels it has a deeper group of pass-catchers this season to compliment them. Receiver Braden Lenzy became a trusted weapon in fall camp. Slot receiver Avery Davis is still a steady presence. Running backs Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree could see even more work as receivers this season. Backup tight ends George Takacs and Kevin Bauman flashed in red-zone drills during camp.
“We have more targets,” Kelly said, “and from an offensive structure, we’ll put ourselves in a position where we’ll have more balance going through it.”
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