Two-win Navy has tall task against Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium
It hasn’t just been one of those types of seasons for Navy under head coach Ken Niumatalolo. It’s probably been the very worst the Midshipmen have had in Niumatalolo’s 14 years in Annapolis, Md.
Navy started the season 1-6. It needs to win two of its last five games to avoid tying for the fewest number of wins ever amassed in a season under Niumatalolo. The Midshipmen went 3-7 a year ago during the shortened season and 3-10 in 2018. Those campaigns were sandwiched around one of Niumatalolo’s best in charge of the program: an 11-2 performance in 2019 that ended with a Liberty Bowl victory over Kansas State.
It’s been a long, hard road for Navy since then. Especially this season.
Navy was slapped in the face with a dose of reality in a 49-7 season-opening loss to Marshall. Navy’s triple-option offense couldn’t find any consistency in that game, and that’s been a trend that has persisted all season.
Four different Midshipmen attempted passes in the loss to Marshall, and none of them threw for 30 yards. They combined to complete 5 of 16 passes for 61 yards and two interceptions.
Obviously, the offense isn’t predicated on passing. Navy ran the ball effectively enough for what it tries to do to win games. The Midshipmen ran 76 times for 337 yards and a touchdown — and still lost by 42 points.
Running up and down the field doesn’t matter one bit if touchdowns are not scored. And that has been an issue in every game after the season opener, too. In fact, Navy’s yards per game national rank (No. 127, 281.5) actually dipped below its scoring offense rank (No. 121, 18.1 points per game) through the ninth week of the season.
A 68-yard output in a 23-3 loss to Air Force certainly didn’t help. Navy’s best offensive game of the season was by far in its 34-30 victory over UCF Oct. 2. The Midshipmen gained 406 yards on 5.08 yards per play. They have averaged less than five yards per play in every other game through Oct. 30, with three performances coming in at less than four yards per play.
For reference, a Notre Dame offense that most can agree struggled quite a bit in the first half of the season only averaged less than four yards per play once through its first seven outings. The Fighting Irish averaged more than five yards per play six times.
So, Irish fans, when you thought it couldn't get much worse than averaging 3.51 yards per play against Wisconsin (in what ultimately became a 41-13 victory) and 4.61 yards per play against a Cincinnati team that later rose to No. 2 in the country in the Associated Press Poll, just remember — you could have been rooting for Navy.
That sort of fandom hasn’t been easy of late.
“We’re just trying to play better,” Niumatalolo said. “That’s where our focus has been. Coach better, play better and find a way to get a W.”
Close, but few cigars
Wins have been hard to come by for Navy, but the record is deeper than the 2-6 mark would suggest. Navy is coming off a 20-17 road win over Tulsa.
The Midshipmen lost to a respectable six-win Houston team by eight points. They lost to an SMU team that started the season 7-0 and rose to No. 19 in the Associated Press poll by seven points. They lost to the same Cincinnati team that beat Notre Dame by 11 in South Bend by only seven points.
A lack of wins hasn’t come about due to a lack of trying. The effort is there. Niumatalolo hasn’t lost the locker room or anything like that. Navy is simply stuck in a rebuilding type of year and has come out on the wrong side of three competitive games against reputable foes.
“Our guys are down from losing but encouraged recognizing we literally could play with everybody on our schedule,” Niumatalolo explained.
Niumatalolo trusted sophomore quarterback Tai Lavatai to throw the ball more in the Cincinnati game than he had all season. Lavatai completed 11 of 15 throws for 116 yards. His previous season high for completions was four. He also smashed his previous season-high of 64 passing yards.
Still, this Navy offense is dependent on the run. Lavatai has run 99 times for 178 yards and four touchdowns. He has run the ball more than anyone on the roster, but has the lowest yards-per-carry average (1.8) of any player who has recorded nine or more attempts. That’s been a bit of a handicap on the triple option.
“Moving forward, we definitely have to minimize mistakes,” Lavatai said. “That’s what kills you in close games. And we just have to finish drives. We’d love to get seven points, but we just haven’t been doing it lately.”
Senior fullback Isaac Ruoss has 98 carries for 388 yards and two touchdowns. Fellow senior fullback James Harris II has 67 carries for 273 yards and one touchdown.
Sophomore quarterback Xavier Arline had a stretch of five games in a row with 16 or more carries in the middle of the season, but he ran five times for minus-five yards against Cincinnati. Lavatai has likely won the job over for good, barring a setback of his own.
But again, Ruoss and Harris are the bell cows of the Navy offense when Lavatai elects to give the ball up. There really aren’t any wide receivers for Notre Dame to worry about. Through eight games, seniors Mychal Cooper (eight receptions for 160 yards and one touchdown) and Chance Warren (six catches for 110 yards) have led the way. Lavatai had only thrown two touchdown passes.
Stop the run, and you stop Navy. It’s really that simple.
Another measuring stick
The Navy defense hasn’t been elite by any means, but it hasn’t held the Midshipmen back as much as the offense has.
Navy made Cincinnati look like anything but a top-10 team, let alone the No. 2 team in the country, in their Oct. 23 game. The Bearcats could only muster a season-low 271 total yards, 95 of which came on the ground and 176 through the air. Cincinnati also ran a season-low 51 total plays against Navy.
Senior cornerback Jamal Glenn, who intercepted Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder once and recovered a late onside kick that gave his team a chance to tie the game in the closing minutes, wasn’t satisfied.
“I’m very proud of our team, proud of our defense, but that’s not good enough,” Glenn said. “Coming into the game, we stressed moral victories are not a thing. Yeah, they’re the No. 2 team in the country, but we want to win games.”
When Navy plays up to its full potential defensively, it’s very capable of winning games. Maybe not on the road against a ranked Notre Dame team, but the Midshipmen have winnable tilts against East Carolina, Temple and Army to finish the season.
Notre Dame still needs to account for where Glenn and senior linebacker Diego Fagot are at all times. Glenn ranks third on the team in tackles with 38. He also has one of the team’s six interceptions. Fagot ranks first on the team in tackles with 71 and has 10 tackles for loss, six more than the next-closest player on the roster.
Navy ranks No. 43 in total defense (347.0 yards allowed per game), which is above average in the context of the entire FBS. Notre Dame has played better defenses this season. It has played worse defenses this season. The Midshipmen have to play like they did against Cincinnati to give themselves the best chance to beat a team like Notre Dame. So if they have to turn to five true freshmen on defense at one point or another like they did against the Bearcats, then so be it.
“At this point in the year, you measure yourself on how much you improve week to week,” Navy defensive coordinator Brian Newberry said. “We’ve had some bad luck with injuries and played a bunch of young guys, so their development is really what’s going to carry us and make us get better.”
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