Stanford on verge of David Shaw’s worst season with Notre Dame looming
When the third set of College Football Playoff rankings were announced Nov. 16, ESPN show host Rece Davis took at stab at what he thought was the most impressive win of the season to that point: Oregon’s upset of Ohio State in Columbus Sept. 11.
So, if what one of the most reputable names in college football media said is viable and holds some merit, then that means Stanford — yes, Stanford — has a win over the team that had the best win of the year at that time.
There might not be anything more emblematic of the craziness that has occurred in college football this season than that. The Cardinal has lost six games in a row after knocking off the then-No. 3 Ducks Oct. 2. Oregon had been one of the best teams in the sport all year until their blowout loss to Utah last week. The Ducks were in a position to qualify for the CFP until then.
And yet, one of head coach David Shaw’s worst Stanford teams of his 11-year tenure took them down. To expect another upset of a highly ranked team when Stanford (3-8) hosts Notre Dame (10-1) Nov. 27, though, might be asking too much.
Way too much.
Shaw’s stretch of superiority at Stanford appears to be a thing of the past. His teams reached double digits in wins in Palo Alto in five of his first six seasons (2011-16), but the Cardinal have not reached that mark in any of the last five. They were eliminated from bowl contention this season with a 35-14 loss to Oregon State Nov. 13. That was preceded by arguably the lowest point in a season full of lows: a 52-7 home loss to Utah Nov. 5. It is coming off a 41-11 home loss to Cal this past Saturday.
This just isn’t anything reminiscent of the once-dominant days of the Shaw era. But that doesn’t mean the Cardinal has given up.
“We’re not just about improvement,” Shaw said. “We’re trying to win.”
Quest for improvement
Stanford played the Utah and Oregon State games without starting quarterback Tanner McKee, who was out with an undisclosed injury. Freshman Ari Patu played in his place against Oregon State, and that went about as well as anyone would expect: 7-of-14 passing for 51 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Offense has been an issue even with McKee, a sophomore, behind center. The Cardinal ranks No. 121 in the Football Bowl Subdivision in total offense. For a reference Notre Dame fans could connect with, the Navy offense that the Irish held to 184 total yards is one of the nine — just nine — offenses with a worse yards per game average than that of Stanford (308.9).
McKee’s numbers aren’t awful. Through nine games he threw for 2,163 yards, completed 64.3 percent of his passes and tossed 14 touchdowns with seven interceptions. It’s the Stanford rushing offense that has been downright abysmal this season.
The Cardinal ranks No. 126 in the FBS in rushing yards. Purdue and Mississippi State are the only Power Five programs with a worse figure than Stanford’s average of 89.8 rushing yards per game.
Junior running back Austin Jones showed promise as a sophomore with 126 carries for 550 yards (4.4 yards per attempt) and nine touchdowns in just six games. This year has been a significant downturn for Jones, though. He has a team-high 98 carries for 343 yards (3.5 yards per attempt) and one touchdown. He has at least gotten involved in the passing game with 31 catches for 264 yards and a score.
Junior Nathaniel Peat has been a bit better in the running game but not by much. He has carried the ball 76 times for 401 yards and three scores. Stanford just doesn’t have anybody that jumps off the page offensively this season. Its leading receiver — wide receiver Elijah Higgins — has 42 catches for 491 yards and four scores. Only two other Cardinal wide receivers have at least 200 yards.
Those low numbers had much to do with injuries taking hold of the wide receiver room. Arguably Stanford’s top receiver, senior Michael Wilson made his season debut against Utah after suffering a preseason injury. Most of the Cardinal’s other wideouts have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.
McKee played against Cal and should be good to go against the Irish. But Stanford is going to need a whole lot more than just the return of McKee to compete with Notre Dame.
It’s going to need the game of the year from a multitude of players.
“We’re in a quest for constant improvement regardless of what time of the year we’re in,” Shaw said. “We made some improvement [against Oregon State] but obviously not enough improvement to win the football game. Not even to have a chance. But there are some things we can take going [forward].”
Not close
If you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Stanford than its rushing offense, think again. The Cardinal’s rushing defense has been even more of a disaster.
Only one Power Five school — Kansas — has allowed more rushing yards per game than Stanford (241.7).
A Notre Dame team that has run the ball effectively in the second half of the season has to be licking its chops. Stanford has been brutally bad against opponents’ rushing attacks. There is no other way around it.
The fewest rushing yards Stanford has allowed this season were the 100 Washington State gained Oct. 16. USC was the only other team Stanford held to less than 200 rushing yards. Utah gained a staggering 441 on 9.6 yards per carry in its rout of the Cardinal. The Utes also scored six touchdowns on the ground.
Shaw called it a “terrible showing top to bottom.”
“We have 11 out there at a time,” he said. “Strap it up and get out there and play. Defensively we have to have a lot of discussions on how to stop the run. All year it’s been close. It’s been close. Today wasn’t close.”
On the other hand, Stanford actually has done a fine job at defending the pass. The Cardinal rank No. 30 nationally in passing yards allowed per game (204.2). Junior cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly has 10 passes broken up and two interceptions. Defensive backs Kendall Williamson and Jimmy Wyrick have seven and six passes broken up, respectively.
Junior linebacker Levani Damuni leads the team with 79 tackles. Sacks haven’t come easily for Stanford this season, but senior linebacker Gabe Reid has 9.5 tackles for loss.
The recipe for teams sticking with Notre Dame early in the year was putting graduate student quarterback Jack Coan on the ground. That’s not Stanford’s strong suit. And neither is stopping the run. Yes, the Cardinal have some stout cover guys in the secondary. But like with McKee likely returning to the lineup, it’s going to take more than that for Stanford to keep this game close.
It’s probably going to take more cards than the Cardinal have in their hand.
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