Projecting The Rest Of Notre Dame's Season
Here’s a look at Notre Dame’s remaining opponents and its odds in each game.
Oct. 29: vs. Miami
Miami’s wins: Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State, Georgia Tech
Miami’s losses: Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech
Odds: ESPN’s Football Power Index is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward. It represents how many points above or below average a team is. FPI gives the Irish a 37.9-percent chance of beating the Hurricanes in this game, one of two remaining losses predicted on Notre Dame’s schedule. Bill Connelly of SB Nation gives Notre Dame a 33-percent chance in this one, losing by a projected margin of 7.8 points.
Nov. 5: vs. Navy (in Jacksonville)
Navy’s wins: Fordham, Connecticut, Tulane, Houston
Navy’s losses: Air Force
Odds: Connelly gives Notre Dame a 63-percent chance to beat the Midshipmen, the highest probability among its remaining opponents. Navy beat No. 6 Houston this season. ESPN FPI gives the Irish a 66.2-percent chance to beat Navy, which hasn’t defeated Notre Dame since 2010, Brian Kelly’s first season in South Bend.
Nov. 12: vs. Army (in San Antonio, Texas)
Army’s wins: Temple, Rice, UTEP, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas
Army’s losses: Buffalo, Duke
Odds: This neutral-site game — officially a Notre Dame home game — should be a win for the Irish. FPI gives Notre Dame a 69.7-percent chance in this one, despite Army’s improved play this season. The Black Knights pulled off a season-opening win at Temple, and their losses to Buffalo and Duke have come by a combined 10 points. Connelly gives the Irish a 61-percent chance to win — a margin of 4.7 points.
Nov. 19: vs. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech’s wins: Liberty, Boston College, ECU, North Carolina, Miami
Virginia Tech’s losses: Tennessee, Syracuse
Odds: The resurgent Hokies under first-year head coach Justin Fuente will make their first-ever trip to Notre Dame Stadium. Despite poor performances in ugly losses to Tennessee and Syracuse, Virginia Tech is projected as a winner over Notre Dame. Connelly projects a final score of 28.0-20.3 Virginia Tech, just a 33-percent chance for the Irish to win. FPI likes it to be a closer game, giving Tech a 51.1-percent chance.
Nov. 26: at Southern Cal
USC’s wins: Utah State, Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona
USC’s losses: Alabama, Stanford, Utah
Odds: Likely the toughest game remaining for Notre Dame, FPI gives the Irish just a 17.2-percent chance of going to Los Angeles and coming away with a victory. Despite a rocky 1-3 start with losses to Alabama, Stanford and Utah, the Trojans are playing better of late. Since inserting freshman Sam Darnold at starting quarterback for the Utah game, he has thrown 11 TDs and just one INT and is averaging 315 yards passing per game. Southern Cal will be tough to beat, and Connelly gives the Irish just a 27-percent chance, losing by a 33.2-22.6 margin.