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On Paper Part II: The Irish Stack Up Well Versus The Tigers

Senior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and the Fighting Irish face off with Clemson Saturday.
Senior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and the Fighting Irish face off with Clemson Saturday. (Photo by Angela Driskell)

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Notre Dame was a double-digit underdog when the Cotton Bowl matchup against Clemson was first announced, and that line has only grown since then. The Tigers have both one of the nation’s top offenses and defenses, and the simple analysis seems to be that the Fighting Irish don’t have the firepower on either side of the ball to really compete.

We’ll find out Dec. 29 if that is true or not, but on paper the matchup doesn’t appear to be as slanted in Clemson’s favor as much as the oddsmakers believe. That was true of the offense versus defense On Paper that we produced after the matchup was first announced. It’s also true of the offense versus offense and defense versus defense matchups when you evaluate how the two teams performed against the best opponents on their schedules.

For this breakdown, I took the top-60 offenses and defenses on each team’s schedule according to the S&P+. The averages provided in the article reflect how each team performed against those opponents.

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NOTRE DAME DEFENSE VS. CLEMSON DEFENSE

Much of the talk in this game surrounds the Clemson defense and how dominant it has been this season. That perception of the Tiger defense is accurate. Clemson will put arguably the nation’s most dominant defense on the field Dec. 29, but any look at the numbers shows that Notre Dame will also put an elite defense on the field.

The S&P Rank is how the S&P+ database ranks each offense that Clemson and Notre Dame faced this season. Using scoring offense and scoring defense ranks are one way to compare teams, but I’ve always preferred efficiency ranks due to the fact it does a better job of putting a performance into context.

The S&P+ rating is based around efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. It also takes into account garbage time stats and removes numbers accumulated when a game is considered no longer competitive.

Clemson faced seven offenses that ranked in the top 60, while Notre Dame faced eight such offenses. Both teams played five opponents that finished inside the top 50. I included the top 60 in order to make the numbers closer in an attempt to remove any discussion of skewing the numbers in Notre Dame’s favor, because a look at just the top-50 offenses gives the Irish a significant advantage.

The numbers against top-60 offenses are almost identical. Clemson’s defense held opponents to just 0.5 less points and 21.3 less yards per game, while the yards per play averages were the same.

Here are the numbers against top-50 offenses:

Clemson — 22.4 points per game, 382.4 yards per game, 5.6 yards per play
Notre Dame — 15.4 points per game, 326.2 yards per game, 4.7 yards per play

So when the competition has been the very best, Notre Dame has outperformed Clemson’s vaunted defense. Clemson allowed four of the five top-50 offenses it faced to score at least 21 points, with a high of 35 points against South Carolina. Twice it allowed opponents to rack up at least 501 yards.

Notre Dame allowed just one of its five best opponents to score at least 21 points. The most yards it allowed were 441 against Virginia Tech.

NOTRE DAME OFFENSE VS. CLEMSON OFFENSE

Even the most critical analysis of Notre Dame will give the Irish defense credit for being a really productive unit. The Irish offense — from an overall numbers standpoint — doesn’t come nearly as close to the Clemson offense.

A look at how the offenses compared against the best defenses on the schedule showed that while Clemson still has the advantage, it’s not nearly great as it appears when looking at just the raw data.

Both teams played six defenses that finished ranked among the top 60 in efficiency, and all six were Power Five opponents.

Clemson holds a 3.7 points per game advantage, but its yards per game advantage is just 2.2 more and its yards per play average is only 0.1 better than the Notre Dame offense.

There were two common opponents in this ranking, with Clemson blowing out Florida State 59-10 and the Irish beat the Seminoles just 42-13. Clemson squeaked by Syracuse 27-23, while Notre Dame walloped the Orange 36-3. Clemson averaged 43.0 points and 496.5 yards per game against those two common opponents, which was greater than Notre Dame’s 39.0 points and 479.0 yards per game.

Notre Dame had an advantage in yards per play, going for 6.4 in those two contests, while Clemson posted a 6.2 clip.

Notre Dame’s “worst” performance against its top-60 opponents came against Michigan, which S&P+ ranked as the No. 5 defense in the nation. Clemson's highest-ranked defense faced was Boston College at No. 28.

Here are the numbers against opponents that ranked between No. 28 and No. 60 in efficiency:

Clemson — 36.2 points per game, 460.0 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play
Notre Dame — 34.2 points per game, 489.0 yards per game, 6.4 yards per play

Clemson made a quarterback change early in the season, replacing senior quarterback Kelly Bryant with freshman Trevor Lawrence, who has been brilliant. The Texas A&M game was the third-lowest points total for the Tigers, while the first start for Lawrence — against Syracuse — tied for the lowest point total.

Interestingly, Clemson averaged 7.0 yards per play against Texas A&M, which was its highest total against top-60 defenses. The game against Syracuse (5.7) was the lowest yards per play output in this breakdown.

Notre Dame's worst performance came in a game in which quarterback Ian Book didn't throw a pass and leading rusher Dexter Williams didn't have a single touch due to a four-game suspension.

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Talk about it inside Rockne’s Roundtable

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