On Paper: Notre Dame Vs. New Mexico

The following is a look at how Notre Dame and New Mexico match up on paper.

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Notre Dame averaged just 23.3 points per game while jumping out to a 3-0 start in 2018. The Fighting Irish had to scrap to win those three contests, with an average margin of victory of just 6.7 points. When then-junior Ian Book was inserted into the lineup at quarterback, the offense posted 37.2 points per game in the final nine outings of the regular season.

The offense also averaged an impressive 486.3 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play during that final nine-game stretch, numbers that would have ranked it 12th and 14th in the nation if expanded over the entire regular season.

Notre Dame was focused on featuring a more explosive offense entering the 2019 campaign. Although their start was not ideal, the Irish still managed 35 points, 423 total yards and 6.5 yards per play in their season-opening 18-point win at Louisville.

New Mexico was one of the nation’s worst defenses in 2018, giving up 36.2 points per game, which ranked 113th in the country. The Lobos also were 119th in yards allowed per game (473.0), 108th in red zone defense and 103rd in third-down defense.

Despite playing an Football Championship Subdivision opponent (Sam Houston State) that went 6-5 in 2018, the Lobos struggled on defense in their opener, allowing 31 points and 558 total yards. Sam Houston State scored touchdowns on all four of its red zone trips against the Lobos.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Notre Dame had an adequate run game last season, averaging 182.6 yards per game to rank 51st in the nation. After a rough start to the season, one in which the Irish compiled just 249 yards on the ground in wins over Michigan and Ball State, the offense started to catch fire.

In wins over Vanderbilt, Wake Forest and Stanford, the ground attack posted 252.7 yards per game and 38.7 points per contest. Just when the ground game was hitting its stride, though, left guard Alex Bars — the team’s best lineman — went down with a season-ending knee injury against Stanford Sept. 29.

Notre Dame averaged just 170.9 yards on the ground in the eight games without Bars. Expectations are that the Irish will make a jump with their ground attack thanks to the return of four starting linemen.

In the season-opening victory over Louisville, the Irish racked up 230 yards, 5.5 yards per carry and four touchdowns on the ground despite the loss of junior running back Jafar Armstrong after one series. With Armstrong out, senior running back Tony Jones Jr. stepped into the lineup and thrived, rushing for 110 yards and a score on 15 carries (7.3 yards per attempt).

In 2018, the Lobos ranked 110th in yards allowed per game (217.0) and 99th in yards allowed per carry (4.9).

New Mexico gave up 330.5 rushing yards per game in the first two games of the season, including 417 by Wisconsin. In the final three contests, the Lobos surrendered 357.0 yards per game on the ground, including 478 to Air Force and 366 to Wyoming.

During the seven games in between, the Lobos gave up just 107.6 yards per game, holding UNLV to just 43 yards and Liberty to just 96. Opponents averaged only 3.1 yards per carry during that stretch. For context, a season-long average of 3.1 yards per rushing attempt would have ranked eighth in the country.

New Mexico held Sam Houston State to just 115 yards and 3.3 yards per carry in the opener.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s passing stats from last season are a bit misleading. The Irish ranked 37th in the country at 257.5 yards per game, and also were 31st in yards per attempt and 58th in yards per completion.

The Irish averaged just 200.7 yards per game through the air in the first three games with Brandon Wimbush starting. That number jumped up to 306.9 yards per contest after Book was inserted into the starting lineup prior to game four, which would have ranked the offense 12th nationally if maintained over the course of the entire season.

Despite the loss of leading pass catcher Miles Boykin to the NFL, the Irish have a talented group of pass catchers for Book to throw to. Senior wideout Chase Claypool, who had just one fewer catch than Boykin the final seven games, is expected to be the team’s go-to pass catcher this season. Claypool was a standout in the opener against Louisville, racking up 94 yards on five catches.

The return of fifth-year senior wide receiver Chris Finke and a talented sophomore class give Book a number of after-the-catch weapons.

New Mexico struggled defending the pass a season ago, ranking 114th in yards allowed per attempt (8.5), 128th in yards allowed per completion and 104th in pass efficiency defense.

To make matters worse, the Lobos must replace nine starters on defense, including all five in the secondary. If they are going to improve against the pass, they will have to get better at getting after the quarterback. New Mexico’s 26 sacks in 2018 ranked 69th in the nation.

New Mexico did not start the 2019 season off well, giving up 443 passing yards to Sam Houston State, although it took the Bearkats 60 attempts to get to that number.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Notre Dame had one of the nation’s best scoring defenses last year, and even though it gave up 30 points in the Cotton Bowl loss to Clemson it held the Tigers to two touchdowns below their season average. Only four regular-season opponents topped 20 points in a game.

The defense's yards per play allowed was outstanding and its red zone defense was one of the nation’s best. Where Notre Dame struggled at times in 2018 was on third down, with the defense finishing in the bottom half of the national rankings in that stat category.

That continued in the 2019 opener against Louisville, with the Irish giving up 383 yards but holding the Cardinals to just 17 points.

New Mexico racked up 39 points and 485 yards in its opener. It was a solid start after ranking 85th in scoring offense (26.6 points per game) and 121st in total offense (330 yards per contest) last season.

Advantage: Notre Dame

When New Mexico head coach Bob Davie took over the program prior to the 2012 season, he inherited an offense that had rushed for just 113.2 yards per game..

Over the next five years, the Lobos averaged between 253.2 and 350.0 yards while employing a triple-option attack. That 350.0 yards per game total in 2016 led the nation in rushing and was a driving force behind the Lobos 9-4 record.

Davie chose to go away from the triple option, however, and the per-game rushing total dropped all the way down to 153.2 yards an outing last year. The Lobos ranked just 89th in rushing yards and were 113th in yards per rush (3.6).

Its top two backs combined for just 370 yards last season, but New Mexico returns four starting offensive linemen. The experienced line was not able to generate much running room in the opener, with the Lobos rushing for just 145 yards and 4.5 yards per attempt in the win over Sam Houston State, although it did get into the end zone four times with its ground game.

Notre Dame ranked 36th in rushing yards allowed last season, and opponents averaged 3.8 yards per rush, which ranked 39th in the land.

A key to getting better against the run will be the development of junior defensive tackles Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa and Kurt Hinish, and young interior players like sophomore Jayson Ademilola and freshman Jacob Lacey.

According to Pro Football Focus, Ademilola was the most disruptive interior run defender last season for the Irish.

Notre Dame’s run defense struggled in the opener against Louisville, giving up 249 yards and 5.3 yards per carry, due in large part to poor tackling and subpar linebacker play.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Davie has taken steps to improve his pass offense, which ranked 110th in the land last season. New Mexico quarterbacks combined for just 176.8 passing yards per game and threw 17 interceptions.

To make those strides, Davie hired Liberty offensive coordinator Joe Dailey, a former quarterback at both Nebraska and North Carolina. Dailey’s Liberty offense ranked 33rd nationally with 261.5 passing yards per game.

Weapons will have to emerge for the Lobos, who don’t return a single wideout with more than 21 catches. Its top weapon will likely be senior wide receiver Elijah Lily, who averaged 17.9 yards on his 21 receptions last fall and tied for the team lead with five touchdown grabs. New Mexico’s leading pass catcher in the opener was fifth-year senior wideout Anu Somoye, who caught three passes for 62 yards.

Junior quarterback Brandt Hughes and senior quarterback Sheriron Jones combined for 340 passing yards, but they completed just 18 fo 40 pass attempts. However, the Lobo line did not give up a single sack in the victory over Sam Houston State.

Getting the pass game going against Notre Dame will be a challenge for the Lobos. The Irish ranked in the top 10 nationally a season ago in yards allowed per attempt, yards allowed per completion, touchdown passes allowed and pass efficiency defense.

Three returners from that secondary return, and Pro Football Focus ranked the Irish defensive backs as the third-best group in the entire country.

Notre Dame also brings back one of the best collections of edge rushers in the country. The Irish are the only team in the country to return three linemen that ranked among the top 30 in the country in pass rush success rate according to PFF.

Louisville completed just 12 of 28 pass attempts against Notre Dame and had just 134 passing yards, while the Irish notched four sacks and 21 quarterback pressures according to PFF.

Advantage: Notre Dame

New Mexico was largely erratic on special teams in 2018, but in some areas it was outstanding. The Lobos led the nation in kick return coverage and ranked fourth in punt return average. Junior punter Thomas Dyer also returns after ranking 17th in the nation with an average of 44.3 yards per attempt.

The bad news is Davie’s squad ranked 128th in kick return average and 54th in punt return coverage. Also, safety Marcus Hayes — who led the nation in punt return average a season ago — transferred in the offseason. Kickoff specialist Danny Sutton is also gone after finishing 17th in the country in touchback percentage.

Notre Dame also lost vital personnel from its special teams, with the programs all-time leading scorer Justin Yoon and prolific punter Tyler Newsome both exhausting their eligibility. Their replacements — junior placekicker Jonathan Doerer and freshman punter Jay Bramblett — are inexperienced.

The Fighting Irish ranked 62nd and 109th in punt return coverage and kick coverage, numbers that must dramatically improve in year three of Brian Polian’s tenure running the special teams units.

Advantage: Even

Davie was expected to make his first appearance at Notre Dame Stadium since Nov. 17, 2001 when the Fighting Irish — led by him — beat Navy 34-16. The Lobos head coach had a health scare after the season opener, and while he is out of the hospital and back with the team, he will not travel to South Bend for this game.

Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly and the Irish bottomed out in 2016, going just 4-8 in a year in which the Lobos went 9-4. Since that time, Notre Dame has gone 23-4 and is coming off the school’s first-ever College Football Playoff berth.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Under Davie, the Lobos are 0-8 in the regular season against Power Five opponents, losing by an average score of 47-16. New Mexico is also just 13-28 on the road since Davie took over, so there isn’t much working in its favor heading into the first-ever visit to South Bend.

Conversely, Notre Dame has gone 10-1 against non-Power Five opponents in the last four seasons, winning those games by an average score of 39-18. Notre Dame has gone 12-1 at home over the previous two seasons and is coming off a season in which it went 6-0 in Notre Dame Stadium.

Advantage: Notre Dame

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