Published Nov 25, 2020
Notre Dame Vs. North Carolina: On Paper
Lou Somogyi & Todd Burlage
Staff

North Carolina Running Game Vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

Talk about strength versus strength!

The Tar Heels average 233.5 rushing yards per game (exactly the same as Notre Dame) and feature two running backs who average more than 100 yards per game and at least 7.0 yards per carry during their 6-2 start.

On the other side, the Irish are allowing only 85.1 yards game on the ground to rank fourth nationally in that category — which is on pace to be the lowest figure by the program since the 1973 national champions (82.4, not including the bowl). Most notable was limiting all-time leading ACC rusher Travis Etienne to 28 yards on 18 carries, and then No. 1 Clemson to 34 yards on 33 attempts in the Nov. 7 triumph.

At a bruising 5-10 and 220 pounds, junior Javonte Williams is averaging 108.5 rushing yards per game and 7.2 yards per carry, and leads the country in both rushing touchdowns (15) and total touchdowns (18). Per Sports Info Solutions, the powerful Williams also paces the nation in yards after contact (583) and broken tackles (41), so it's quite likely that "wrapping up" was a buzz word on the Notre Dame defensive practice field the last two weeks.

Diminutive but strong senior Michael Carter (5-8, 199) has been equally dangerous, adding 101.0 rushing yards per game, 7.0 yards per carry and four rushing scores to give UNC perhaps the nation's most lethal one-two punch in the backfield. Also notable about Carter is that he lost two fumbles as a 2018 sophomore, but in his last 336 carries the ESPN stats show he has put the ball on the ground only once.

Advertisement

Williams and Carter combined for 1,936 rushing yards in 2019 — 1,003 for Carter and 933 for Williams, and this year they run behind a line that averages 6-4, 318 pounds per starter.

We have zero doubt that defensive coordinator Clark Lea’s first priority will be limiting the potent ground attack, just as the Fighting Irish did versus Clemson. A passing onslaught can be withstood by a defense — Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei threw for a record 439 yards versus the Irish — but if the line of scrimmage is controlled with the running attack, then far more problems can occur. Central to the Tar Heels' attack is the RPO (run-pass option), which can be effective mainly if the "run" aspect is functioning.

Even in North Carolina's two losses — 31-28 to Florida State and 44-41 to Virginia — the Williams and Carter tandem were still somewhat productive on paper. Against the Seminoles they combined for 184 yards on 35 carries (5.3 yards per attempt) and versus the Cavaliers it was 22 rushes for 118 yards (5.4 yards per try). North Carolina totaled only 93 yards net rushing at Virginia, mainly because of minus-25 yards in sacks — but it still produced 41 points.

So what would be a reasonable goal be for the Notre Dame run defense against the Tar Heels?

Duplicating the Clemson effort with 34 yards rushing might not be realistic because North Carolina is better balanced and quarterback Sam Howell is more experienced than Uiagalelei. But if the Irish can produce Virginia-like numbers — and the personnel is superior to the Cavaliers — sign us up right away.

Senior rover Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is among the Irish leaders in almost every defensive category — including game-breaking plays, highlighted by his 23-yard touchdown return on a fumble recovery versus Clemson — and continues to build a strong All-America candidacy.

But it's been overall TEAM defense with speed, physicality and assignment-consciousness that has been the identity of Lea's unit. Based on what was achieved against the run versus Clemson, we give the slight edge to the Irish because it likely will again sell out against the run and sacrifice some versus the pass.

Advantage: Notre Dame

North Carolina Passing Game Vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

As good as the Tar Heels have been on the ground, they have been as productive or even better through the air with Howell arguably the best signal-caller Notre Dame will face this regular season.

Picking up where he left off after last season, Howell leads the “UNC Air Raid Attack” with a 67.7-percent completion rate and 328.8 passing yards per game featuring 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. In the 59-53 shootout win versus Wake Forest Nov. 14 where the Tar Heels were down by 21 points at one point, Howell finished 32 of 45 for 550 yards, six touchdowns and one interception.

In 2019, Howell set a school record with 38 touchdown passes plus was second in the ACC in passing yards (3,641) and passing efficiency (160.25 rating) en route to league Rookie of the Year honors.

As far as preferential target options, Howell has plenty to choose from, but his favorites are junior wide receiver Dyami Brown and senior wideout Dazz Newsome.

Both recorded more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdown receptions last season, and Brown leads the ACC in both receiving yards per game (103.6) and touchdown catches (eight) while averaging a robust 18.4 yards per grab, easily the best mark among all ACC receivers with more than 30 receptions. Newsome contributed 34 catches for 455 yards and four scores.

What stands out about North Carolina's aerial assault is it has averaged a whopping 15.52 yards on 170 completions.

• Particularly notable is that the running backs Williams and Carter have combined for 39 catches at a clip of 12.2 yards per catch, with five touchdowns. In the RPO scheme, they are not merely check downs to salvage three or four yards. They can catch and run in space.

• In addition to Brown and Newsome, the wideout corps includes sophomore Khafre Brown — 22.8 yards per his 12 receptions — and senior Beau Corrales, whose 13 catches have averaged 18.3 yards. Corrales will be a game-time decision after suffering an injury earlier this month.

• Tight end Garrett Walston has not been used as much, but his 11 catches still average an impressive 15.6 yards and include two scores.

For the Irish defense, even as it tries to pile up better sack (20) and interception (five) numbers, an ability to limit big downfield passing plays — and to get off the field by dominating opposing offenses on third down (fifth nationally with a 26.0 percent conversion rate) — leaves this area strong but not spectacular for Lea. Freshman Clarence Lewis is listed as the starter at field corner. Last year versus USC's prolific passing attack, Lea employed primarily a three-safety look.

In the same way how you have to generally lose money to make money, defensively you have to lose something (versus the pass) to win something (winning the line of scrimmage versus the run).

Advantage: North Carolina

Notre Dame Running Game Vs. North Carolina Run Defense 

The Notre Dame rushing attack cooled some before the offensive line and sophomore tailback Kyren Williams hit top-ranked Clemson with 208 yards — 140 of those from Williams, the sophomore’s fourth 100-yard rushing game this season. Both Williams and junior C'Bo Flemister got banged up in the Nov. 14 win at Boston College and were gradually eased into practice preparations, per head coach Brian Kelly.

Fifth-year senior quarterback Ian Book is increasingly becoming a prominent and dangerous complement to Williams, routinely providing a timely, athletic and often an ad-lib option on the ground when passing plays break down. Against Clemson, in particular, he had 67 rushing yards, and then followed with 85 versus Boston College. If defenses don't "spy" him, chances are they will be pay for it dearly.

Notre Dame remains one of only three ACC teams averaging more than 200 rushing yards a game (233.5), while North Carolina ranks 56th in the country at stopping the run (151.9 yards allowed per contest, 4.1 yards per carry). In the most recent contest, Wake Forest's Christian Beal-Smith had 17 carries for 120 yards versus the Tar Heels.

An X-factor that emerged is during the bye week Notre Dame lost two starting offensive linemen: junior center Jarrett Patterson (foot surgery) for the season and fifth-year senior right guard Tommy Kraemer to an emergency appendectomy.

Senior Josh Lugg (6-7, 310) is as good a pinch hitter as one can have up front in place of Kraemer. Lugg took over for an injured Robert Hainsey last year at right tackle during the first series of the Virginia Tech game and started the final five with virtually zero drop-off.

At center, though, sophomore Zeke Correll (6-3, 295) will be making his debut as a starter, similar to Patterson in the opener on the road last year versus Louisville against what was considered an inferior defense, just like the Tar Heels this year.

Fifth-year senior linebacker Chazz Surratt and junior linebacker Jeremiah Gemmel are adding to their standout 2019 seasons. Surratt — who leads the Tar Heels in tackles with 68 — became a revelation in 2019, evolving from a backup quarterback into a first-team All-ACC linebacker and defensive playmaker all over the field. He played quarterback in the Tar Heels' 33-10 loss to Notre Dame in 2017 — which also was Book's first career start.

In reality, though, a lot of "analysis" comes down to this: North Carolina permitted 53 points to Wake Forest, 45 to Virginia Tech and 44 to Virginia. If the Irish don't have a turnover fest, they should be able to score.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Notre Dame Passing Game Vs. North Carolina Pass Defense

Following weeks of worry and criticism over the lack of production Book was getting from his wide receivers, those pass catchers are providing some steady and necessary improvement.

The trio of fifth-year seniors Javon McKinley and Ben Skowronek and senior Avery Davis combined for 13 catches, 213 yards and one touchdown against Clemson, and then 12 for 181 yards at Boston College, with Skowronek nabbing three red-zone scores. All three players are showing consistent improvement and an added confidence level from Book.

Freshman tight end Michael Mayer (21 catches, 247 yards, two scores) continues building his case for first-team Freshman All-America accolades, and perhaps even some postseason All-ACC honors. He's already had more individual production in a rookie season than numerous other freshman tight ends have combined during the Kelly era.

Attrition in the secondary was a major problem in the preseason for the Tar Heels when three expected contributors opted out because of the coronavirus. All four starters listed on the back end are sophomores, with a couple of true freshmen as backups. While putting up 53 points against Carolina on Nov. 14, Wake Forest's Sam Hartman passed for 429 yards, four scores and no interceptions. Book is at peak performance in his career, both at extending plays and making them.

An X-factor for Carolina is two more sophomores on the back end: Storm Duck — who would be on any All-Name Team — and Kyler McMichael. Both might be available and will be game-time decisions. Duck, who started as a freshman last year, has missed the last six games. McMichael, who transferred from Clemson, has been out the past three. He was Rivals' No. 56 player in the country, though, when signed in 2018.

A couple of UNC linebackers — senior Tomon Fox and fifth-year senior Tyrone Hopper — have protected well against the pass, combining for 6.5 sacks, 10 quarterback hurries and five passes broken up.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams

After finishing 11th in the 14-team ACC in net punting last season and struggling in other areas as well, North Carolina placed an improvement emphasis this preseason on these units by hiring former Nebraska assistant Jovan Dewitt as its new special teams coordinator.

Little has changed. The Tar Heels rank in the bottom half of the NCAA in nearly every special teams category, including field goal percentage, where fifth-year senior placekicker Grayson Atkins is 7 of 12. In fairness, most were long-range attempts, where he is 1 of 3 from 40 to 49 yards and also 1 of 3 beyond 50 yards.

Two blocked punt returns for touchdowns this season, excellent coverage on both kicks and punts, and strong kicking by senior Jonathan Doerer lead the Irish.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Coaching

The return of popular prodigal head coach Mack Brown in 2019 after a 21-year absence — Brown left Chapel Hill and coached Texas for 16 years then spent about five years as a television analyst — was a smashing success.

Despite six heartbreaking losses in 2019 — by a combined total of only 26 points — Brown led UNC to its first bowl game since 2016 and injected some needed energy into a flat-lined program. Brown coached Texas to a national championship in 2005.

Kelly has thrived in these settings for Notre Dame. The Irish skipper entered Nov. 14 game at Boston College expecting a 10th victory in his previous 11 road meetings against ACC foes since 2016, winning those previous nine by an average of 30.1 per game.

Brown’s mission remains rebuilding a program while Kelly’s is to sustain and continue to enhance one that has been playing at a playoff level much of the past four years. And as much respect we have for the Hall of Famer Brown, his best coaching days are likely behind him, while Kelly and his staff appear to be at their peak. Still, Brown's history cannot be overlooked.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Intangibles

In a rare Friday game, both Kelly and Brown enter this one off a bye week and during an extended winter break. Both teams have had to deal with two-week byes earlier in the season because of coronavirus issues, and in both cases they were in battles after those byes, with North Carolina eking past Boston College (26-22) and Notre Dame holding off Florida State (42-26).

Until last year's 45-14 loss at Michigan, Kelly had excelled off byes. The Irish coach has also been masterful at beating opponents “rested” and “ready” for Notre Dame off their own bye week, including 7-0 last year.

Among 127 teams, North Carolina is 107th in penalties per game with 7.88.

Motivation should be high on both sides. Notre Dame smells the College Football Playoff, while North Carolina is seeking a “validation win” for itself the way the Irish did against Clemson earlier this month.

Advantage: Even

----

• Learn more about our print and digital publication, Blue & Gold Illustrated.

• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

• Sign up for Blue & Gold's news alerts and daily newsletter.

Subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.

• Follow us on Twitter: @BGINews, @BGI_LouSomogyi, @Rivals_Singer, @PatrickEngel_, @MasonPlummer_ and @AndrewMentock.

• Like us on Facebook.