Prior to any college football game, analysts preview it by repeating about a dozen times “the key to this game is …”
Not much analysis or probing is needed on Senior Day this week when No. 2 Notre Dame (9-0) is slated to host 1-9 Syracuse, which BetOnLine has made an early 33.5-point underdog.
It mainly comes down to not having a spike in COVID-19 and not entering with a bored attitude — as Clemson did as a 46-point favorite versus the Orange Oct. 24 and then found itself leading only 27-21 in the third quarter before producing a 47-21 victory.
Syracuse also showed plenty of fight this past weekend while taking a 22-14 halftime lead (led by a kickoff return for a score) against North Carolina State before losing 36-29. The issue is how much fight is left in the tank during such a dismal campaign amid a pandemic — and then having to play a bona fide national title contender on the road in the finale?
Where the mismatch between Notre Dame and Syracuse is most profound is with “the money down.” As an offshoot of its 1-9 start with one of the least productive offenses in the country, Syracuse ranks 124th among 127 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams in third-down conversion rate at 25.2 percent.
That plays right into Notre Dame’s wheelhouse under defensive coordinator Clark Lea, whose troops this past weekend held a North Carolina team that was averaging 43 points and 563 yards to 17 and 298, respectively, and 2 of 11 on third-down conversions. During the 9-0 start by the Fighting Irish, they are third in the country in third-down conversion defense at 25.2 percent (29 of 115).
On the other side of the ball, thanks in good part to the elusiveness and ability to extend the play by fifth-year senior quarterback Ian Book, Notre Dame is the 12th-best FBS team at converting third-down situations at 52.0 percent (64 of 123). Meanwhile, Syracuse’s valiant defense that has been on the field far too long is 107th in third-down stoppage at 47.5 percent (75 of 158).
The latter is probably often a case of fatigue because the Orange offense is last in the country in time of possession per game with 24:06 — while ball possession is a prime identity for the Irish with 34:12 per contest (11th in the country).
Where Syracuse’s efforts on defense have especially been squandered is it forced 22 turnovers— the most in the country — during the 1-9 start. However, that has been nullified by committing 17 turnovers of their own (118th). Conversely, Book now has a Notre Dame-record 237 straight passes without an interception.
Throughout his nine years as a head coach, Syracuse fifth-year boss Dino Babers’ identity has centered on innovative, lightning-speed offenses that keep defenses on their heels and gasping for oxygen, starting at Eastern Illinois (2012-13) when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (who in 2018 signed a $137.5 million contract with the San Francisco 49ers) became a second-round pick after passing for 5,050 yards and 53 touchdowns as a senior and winning the Walter Payton Award (the Football Championship Subdivision equivalent of the Heisman).
In 2018, Babers guided the Orange to a No. 15 final ranking in the Associated Press poll with a 10-3 mark, the program’s best in 17 years, making him a finalist for several national Coach of the Year awards. The Orange ranked 11th in the country for scoring with a 40.2 average — despite getting shut down in a 36-3 loss to College Football Playoff-bound Notre Dame.
That’s what makes this year’s Orange offense, which has been a flight below anemic, quite the outlier.
Among 127 teams, Syracuse is 118th in scoring (17.5 points per game), 120th in passing efficiency, 124th in rushing offense (78.3 yards per game after a three-yard effort versus NC State) and 126th in total offense (250.4 yards per game), along with its last place in time of possession. The rushing total especially stands out versus a Notre Dame run defense that is fourth with an 85.3 average — the program’s best since the 1973 national champs were at 82.4 (not including the bowl).
Such a drop-off often stems from attrition or injuries, and the Orange have been ravaged by both. By November, it was down to what was expected to be its fourth running back and third quarterback in the preseason, and it showed during a 30-0 loss to Louisville on Nov. 20 in which Syracuse had 137 yards of total offense (45 passing and 92 rushing).
This year’s Orange might be the worst Power Five team to enter Notre Dame Stadium since Nov. 22, 2008, when 2-8 Syracuse had just fired head coach Greg Robinson. Yet, somehow the Orange pulled off a stunning 24-23 upset on Senior Day, which basically proved to be the death knell of the Charlie Weis era the following year.
Don’t anticipate any such upset this time.
----
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, Blue & Gold Illustrated.
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
• Sign up for Blue & Gold's news alerts and daily newsletter.
• Subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.
• Follow us on Twitter: @BGINews, @BGI_LouSomogyi, @Rivals_Singer, @PatrickEngel_, @MasonPlummer_ and @AndrewMentock.
• Like us on Facebook.
