Notre Dame’s ‘Ifs’ For Title Contention In 2020, From ESPN’s Bill Connelly
ESPN college football analytics guru Bill Connelly’s predictive SP+ ranking has displayed unwavering fondness of Notre Dame in recent years.
The Fighting Irish have ranked anywhere between eighth and 19th in it every year since 2015. College football’s preeminent efficiency ranking, adjusted for tempo and opponents, sees Notre Dame as a stable and annually relevant operation. Even the 2016 team that went 4-8 and ushered in mass staff changes still finished the season at No. 18 in the final SP+. No, it wasn’t hacked.
The 2020 team is 12th in Connelly’s preseason SP+, which he bases on recent history, recruiting and returning production. Notre Dame is 83rd nationally in the third category, which Connelly computes himself. Once again, he projects a strong season for the Irish.
Brian Kelly’s move to dismiss former offensive coordinator Chip Long in December and bring in four graduate transfers suggests he wants to crack higher than eighth, though. In his rundown of 18 national title contenders (based on betting odds), Connelly identified his big “ifs” that need to happen for Notre Dame to actually reach those goals.
First up: sorting out its receiver situation. Notre Dame will have a three-year starting quarterback in Ian Book, which gives the offense a high floor. But someone has to catch the passes after his top two targets, Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet, were drafted in April.
“Four of Book's top five targets are gone, to be replaced by Northwestern transfer Ben Skowronek, big-play veteran Javon McKinley, and ... well ... we’ll see,” Connelly wrote. “There are lots of youngsters to choose from, including sophomore Braden Lenzy and blue-chip freshman Jordan Johnson.”
Notre Dame’s leading rusher, Tony Jones Jr., is gone too. Jafar Armstrong’s 505 career yards are the most among the team’s returning running backs. An inexperienced group added Stanford graduate transfer Trevor Speights, who carried the ball 95 times for the Cardinal and has dealt with injuries during his career.
“The Irish return three running backs [C’Bo Flemister, Armstrong and Jahmir Smith] who didn’t do much with the first-string action they were given,” Connelly wrote. “The line returns six players who have combined for 115 career starts, but the backs have to do their part.
“And if they don’t, you figure it’s only a matter of time until blue-chip freshman Chris Tyree gets a long look.”
Notre Dame’s defense is No. 102 in Connelly’s returning production rankings. All three units of it suffered meaningful losses, but none will be as green as the secondary. Three starters and another important contributor were either drafted or signed rookie free agent deals. Kyle Hamilton was its best player as a freshman last year and is back, but cornerback is one of the team’s major unsettled spots.
“Thanks to a diverse pass rush and a veteran secondary, the Irish defense ranked ninth in ANY/A [(passing yards + 20*TDs - 45*INTs - sack yardage)/(passes + sacks)] allowed last season,” Connelly wrote. “But both starting safeties and lead corner Tony Pride Jr. are gone, and while veterans like corner TaRiq Bracy and NC State transfer Nick McCloud could be ready for larger roles, success will be determined by how many blue-chippers from the 2019 class — Hamilton and redshirt freshmen KJ Wallace, Litchfield Ajavon, Isaiah Rutherford, Cam Hart — look the part early in their careers.”
Connelly’s last “if” was a more unique one: “A lack of beef” on defense. Run defense deficiencies were not severe — Notre Dame allowed 3.81 yards per rush (39th nationally) and finished in the top 20 in total defense and scoring defense. It was 26th in tackles for loss. Connelly’s numbers illuminate a subplot that didn’t derail the season but could have made a difference if it were at a higher level.
“Run defense was an issue — the Irish were 49th in rushing success rate allowed — and …that can be tied partially to pure size,” Connelly wrote. “Only two of 10 returning contributing linemen are listed above 286 pounds. A linebacking corps led by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah could be incredible, but it helps when your linemen can occupy blockers better.”
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