Notre Dame Prepares For Stanford, With Or Without (Bryce) Love
Remember when Jim Harbaugh departed for the NFL after the 12‑1 record at Stanford in 2010, and popular projections had the Cardinal “returning to the mean” as a .500 operation that would be relatively irrelevant in the college football landscape?
Instead, former Harbaugh assistant and Stanford alumnus David Shaw has further established his alma mater as a “program” this decade in college football.
From 2010 to the present, the Cardinal is 84‑21 (.800 winning percentage), and 72‑20 (.783) under Shaw. Stanford has averaged 11 wins per season over the past seven, and only four other teams in college football have posted a minimum of 10 wins in six of the last seven campaigns — Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma.
The one missing piece for Stanford from the other four during this time is either an appearance in the national title game or in the four-team College Football Playoff.
Especially impressive under Shaw is among active coaches he ranks No. 3 in winning percentage against Associated Press top-25 teams (minimum 10 games played) with a 22‑12 record (.647). The only other active coaches above .600 in such contests are Ohio State’s Urban Meyer (37‑15, .712) and Alabama’s Nick Saban (75‑38, .664).
“He’s done an incredible job,” said Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly, who is 2-5 against Stanford and 2-4 versus Shaw. “He’s been consistent. They are who they are, they don’t pretend to be anybody else.
“They continue to, year in and year out, produce top-ranked teams and players that are drafted in the NFL, as well as getting a Stanford education.”
Despite a midseason tailspin in 2016, some issues at quarterback and in a “rebuilding” mode after finishing 12-2 and No. 3 in the final 2015 AP poll (the program’s highest finish since 1940), the Cardinal still won a minimum of 10 games for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, finishing 10‑3 and No. 12 in the final AP rankings.
This year, Stanford hit an early snag with consecutive losses to USC (42-24) and San Diego State (20-17) to fall to 1-2. Since then, it has been 7-1, highlighted by defeating No. 9 Washington 30-22 Nov. 10 and grinding out a 17-14 win versus archrival Cal last weekend. If Washington defeats Washington State this weekend in The Apple Cup, then the Cardinal will face USC in the Pac-12 title game Dec. 1.
Stanford’s identity in the last decade, first under Harbaugh and then Shaw, has been forged on exceptional physicality on both sides of the ball. Throughout most of its football history, the Cardinal was known mainly as a finesse, pass-happy operation. That has shifted dramatically in the past decade, which has seen a couple of Heisman Trophy runners-up in running backs Toby Gerhart and Christian McCaffrey, plus Stepfan Taylor, Tyler Gaffney and now Bryce Love, who:
• Already has set a Football Bowl Subdivision record with 11 runs of 50 or more yards this season.
• Leads the nation with 4.8 yards per carry after contact, per Pro Football Focus, with 929 of his 1,723 yards coming after the initial hit.
• Is No. 2 nationally in rushing yards while averaging a phenomenal 8.8 yards per carry.
“He’s got elite speed and he breaks tackles, and that is a lethal mix,” Kelly said of Love. “You have to tackle this guy, and that’s what makes him a special player.”
Amazing stats notwithstanding, a bad ankle has slowed Love some the past month and his status for the Notre Dame game is in doubt after he sat out the final 11:43 of the Cal game last weekend. Interestingly, last year at Notre Dame it was McCaffrey who could not play because of an injury, so Love stepped in with 129 rushing yards on 23 carries in the 17‑10 Cardinal victory.
Without Love, Stanford’s next option is Brennan Scarlett, whose 352 yards have averaged 4.8 yards and included six touchdowns.
“We’re preparing for Love to play,” Kelly said. “But when Scarlett was in the game, they were very effective. He’s a big back … 220 pounds, physical, very good vision. We’re very well aware of him in the recruiting process.
“… He doesn’t have the home-run ability of Love, but he’s a very accomplished back and he’s going to get you first downs, and you’d better tackle him. They felt like in that situation with Love not available that they were going to play smash-mouth football, and he’s a guy that they certainly can do that with.”
That approach has helped make Stanford a program this decade, not merely another team. That physicality is potentially the identity Notre Dame likewise is trying to establish on a more consistent basis, and lends itself to the school’s culture. Both pull from a similar recruiting pool.
Other than the 38-36 shootout won by Stanford on the game’s last play in 2015, most of the meetings between Kelly and Shaw have been low-scoring, old-school type contests: The Irish won heart-stoppers at home in 2012 (20-13 in overtime) and 2014 (17-14), but lost at home last year (17-10).
“You’re going against a team that stresses you from a tactical standpoint, and they’re a physical football team,” Kelly said. “… Outside of the apparent similarities from a university standpoint in terms of academics, on the football field they stress you from how they play the game … a 3-4 defense that is long, makes it difficult for you to do a lot of things, and then they get into nickel and four-down. Offensively, a great running back and a physical offensive line.
“It’s more about their style of football … and of course who they recruit: smart, tough, well-coached, disciplined players … They don’t beat themselves.”
Both operations have had their moments with the passing game this season while leaning more on the run. Stanford sophomore K.J. Costello replaced veteran Keller Chryst at quarterback at the start of this month and has completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 993 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. Stanford has averaged only 21.0 points over the past four games, while Notre Dame has been held to 16.0 per contest in its past two outings.
Notre Dame has lost each of the last four trips to Stanford, not winning there since 2007 to conclude a 3-9 year, when Harbaugh was in his initial season with the Cardinal.
The West Coast time change is an adjustment, but the Irish will be out there by Thanksgiving night. The torn-up grass surface also will be something to which Notre Dame will have to adapt.
“They haven’t always had the greatest field surface, but that’s not an excuse because we both have to play on it,” Kelly said.
All the makings are there for another old-school battle.
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