Having finished anywhere from No. 5 through No. 12 in four of the last five college football seasons, Notre Dame has established itself in tier two (top seven to 15) over the past half-decade with about six to 10 other programs.
Most of the “Way Too Early” polls released in January had head coach Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish in that familiar strata. Sporting News had them at No. 8, Athlon and SI.com at No. 9, and ESPN, CBS Sports and FOX Sports at No. 10.
However, in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index released late this week, Notre Dame is No. 16. This doesn’t necessarily correlate with it being thought of as “the 16th best team,” but as 16th in the chances to make the College Football Playoff.
The obvious and seemingly annual top three is comprised of Clemson — who the Irish are scheduled to host Nov. 7 — Ohio State and Alabama.
The Tigers are listed with an 81.1 percent chance of making the CFP, while the Buckeyes are a distant second at 63.8 and Alabama third at 58.7.
Surprisingly, the fourth spot went to another Notre Dame opponent, Wisconsin Oct. 3 at Green Bay’s Lambeau Field. The Badgers were tabulated at 33.5 percent to make the CFP, 14.4 percent to advance to the title game, and 5.5 percent to win it all.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame, which did make the four-team CFP in 2018, is given a 3.1 percent chance to achieve it in 2020, 0.8 to move on to the final and 0.2 to win it all.
USC, the regular-season finale Nov. 28, is the third 2020 Notre Dame foe on the docket.
Here is the summary of that trio.
1. Clemson
In what is projected to be mini-playoff, Clemson will be the best program to enter Notre Dame Stadium since Oct. 15, 2005, when USC arrived with a 27-game winning streak and as a reigning champion for two years. The Tigers are 69-5 the past five years with two national titles.
Wide receiver Tee Higgins turned pro after snaring 59 passes as a junior for 19.8 yards per catch and 13 touchdowns, but, surprisingly, running back Travis Etienne returned despite having rushed for 4,038 yards, 7.8 yards per carry and 56 touchdowns his first three years.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Etienne and wideout Justyn Ross comprise the most potent quarterback/running back/wide receiver trio in the nation.
Defensive tackle Nyles Pinckney’s return for his senior year is another plus up front with the likes of Tyler Davis, Justin Foster and Xavier Thomas.
4. Wisconsin
Quite a surprise after a four-loss season, although two were to Ohio State and a heartbreaking 11th-hour one-point loss to Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The upset loss occurred against Illinois.
The Badgers identity is built on power running and stout defense. The defense allowed only 16.9 points per game (10th nationally) and was fourth in total defense. It returns a good chunk of the unit, although help must be found at linebacker. Quarterback Jack Coan returns after finishing 19th nationally in pass efficiency.
After three seasons rushing for 1,977, 2,194 and 2,003 yards — while averaging 6.7 yards and tallying 50 touchdowns — Jonathan Taylor departed to the NFL early, but this attack has been one of “plug and play.”
Also departing early to the NFL early was standout wide receiver Quintez Cephus (59 catches for 901 yards and seven scores in 2019) and center Tyler Biadasz.
Like Notre Dame, the Badgers are in that top-eight to top-15 tier. Since 2014 they are 63-19 (.768) and finished No. 13, No. 21, No. 9, No. 7, unranked in 2018 at 8-5, and No. 11 last year in the Associated Press poll.
14. USC
The No. 65 recruiting ranking this winter was mind-boggling, but demonstrated the uncertainty of head coach Clay Helton’s future.
There is still enough talent to work with to vie for the Pac-12 championship and defeat Notre Dame, but it depends on how well the Trojans and Helton can operate with ostensibly a lame-duck status.
Left tackle Austin Jackson opted to turn pro after his junior year, but returning for their senior seasons are receiver Tyler Vaughns (189 career catches, 17 touchdowns) to complement All-America candidate Amon-Ra St. Brown and defensive tackle Jay Tufele.
Quarterback Kedon Slovis thrived as a freshman under coordinator Graham Harrell, passing for 3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns. Notably, he connected on 24 of 35 passes for 255 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 30-27 loss at Notre Dame.
Helton fired fourth-year defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast after allowing 49 points in the Holiday Bowl loss to Iowa and replaced him with Todd Orlando — who was fired after three seasons at Texas when the Longhorns finished 97th in total defense this past year.
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