Notre Dame Considered A Top Playoff Contender In 2018
ESPN released its 2018 College Football Playoff predictor yesterday (August 8), and in a bit of a shocker, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were listed as the team with the fourth best chance to make the playoffs.
The article had this to say about the Irish:
"What the heck does the Playoff Predictor think is happening in South Bend?
While most of the above results are chalky, the Fighting Irish stand out as one team whose projection does not fit with the public perception. There are two major reasons for this:
1. Notre Dame is better than many people think. It doesn't boast the sexiest offense, but the Fighting Irish actually ranked 12th in offensive efficiency last season -- a metric which considers the effectiveness of the unit on a play-by-play level and considers the strength of opponents faced. But more important than that, defensively, they ought to be stout. Notre Dame ranked 10th in defensive efficiency a season ago and is returning nine starters to that side of the ball.
2. As an independent, Notre Dame's schedule strikes a nice balance in 2018. It's difficult enough that a strong record would be an accomplishment and would catch the committee's eye, but easy enough that 11-1 -- probably the record it needs to accomplish -- is within the realm of possibility. Of course, plenty rides on Week 1, when Notre Dame takes on Michigan. A win over the Wolverines would boost the Fighting Irish's chances of reaching the playoff to 53 percent, while a loss would drop them to 23 percent."
Notre Dame has entered November with a chance to play for a title in four of the last six seasons, but the Irish have only made it one time, back in 2012. That was two years before the playoffs started.
Last season, Notre Dame spent two weeks ranked in the top four before losing on the road to Miami (Fla.), which knocked it out of the playoff chase. Two years prior, Notre Dame spent two weeks at No. 4, a week at No. 5 and a week at No. 6 in the college football playoff rankings.
Not being able to finish in November has destroyed any chance the Irish have had to make the playoffs. Since the playoffs started in 2014, Notre Dame has gone 7-10 in November. In the 2014, 2015 and 2017 season the Irish were a combined 20-3 entering November, with a 6-1 record (2014), a 7-1 record (2015) and a 7-1 record (2017). In each of those seasons its only loss was to a team that made it to the playoffs, and the losses were by 2, 4 and 1 point.
There are reasons one can be optimistic about Notre Dame’s chances, but there are also reasons for concern, beyond the team’s November struggles.
3 REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
1. Defense: On paper this should be one of Notre Dame’s best defenses in the last 20 years. It should rival the vaunted 2012 unit, which propelled the Irish to the BCS Championship game. Notre Dame returns nine starters from last season’s squad, and 12 different defenders have started at least two games during their careers. This does not include junior safety Alohi Gilman, who started 12 games for Navy in 2016.
In total, Notre Dame returns 169 career starts on defense: 71 in the secondary, 53 along the defensive line and 45 at linebacker. If you add Gilman’s 12 starts at Navy that total jumps to 181.
That is from a defense that finished the 2017 season ranked 10th nationally in defensive efficiency according to the ESPN Football Power Index and 20th according to the Fremeau Efficiency Index. It also enters its second season in the 4-2-5 system brought in by former coordinator Mike Elko.
Notre Dame has star potential on defense in senior defensive tackle Jerry Tillery, junior end Daelin Hayes, senior linebacker Te’von Coneyand Drue Tranquill, and junior corners Julian Loveand Troy Pride Jr. How many of those players step up and play like stars will go a long way to determining if Notre Dame can in fact play championship caliber defense.
2. Brandon Wimbush: This won’t be the only time you read about Wimbush in this article. But on the positive side, Wimbush has the kind of talent to carry an offense. When he was on last season the Irish offense was as close to unstoppable as we’ve seen in South Bend in a very long time. Just ask Temple, Michigan State, USC, NC State and Wake Forest how difficult Notre Dame is to defend when Wimbush is making plays and the offense is revolving around what he can do.
If Wimbush can be a consistent producer this season and show his good side week-after-week the Irish offense should be dynamic. This will involve him being a better decision maker in the pass game, a more accurate thrower and to improve his effectiveness in the read concepts in the run game.
3. Schedule: Notre Dame has a schedule that shouldn’t require it to run the table to make the playoffs. The Irish have five opponents on the schedule that are currently ranked in the USA Today Coaches Top 25 poll. It will play top teams from the Big Ten, Pac 12 and ACC. If it can win 11 games against that schedule it will have a strong resume.
3 REASONS FOR CONCERN
1. Brandon Wimbush: When Wimbush was on the offense was impossible to defend, but when he wasn’t on his game the Irish were certainly beatable. If Wimbush plays like he did a season ago he’ll do enough to punish some really good defenses, but his inconsistency will come back to bite the team on more than one occasion.
He could be arguably the team's greatest asset if he plays to his full potential, but he could also be a key figure in keeping the Irish out of the playoffs if he can't be more consistent as a thrower.
2. Offensive Skill: Notre Dame has a ton of depth on the offensive depth chart when you talk about potential, talent and athleticism. The veterans and newcomers are certainly athletic enough to be impact players, but the proven production at running back, wide receiver and tight end is more than troubling.
Notre Dame had the talent at wide receiver and tight end to be pretty good last season as well, but far too many players at those positions were erratic and didn’t play with enough fire and focus. Combined with Wimbush’s struggles as a thrower, the pass game was simply not good enough in November or against Georgia to get the job done.
On paper there are reasons to be excited about the offensive skill positions, but until players at all three positions start to show out on Saturdays more consistently this remains a concern.
3. History: On paper Notre Dame should have beaten Stanford in 2017, 2016 and 2015 but it couldn’t do it. On paper it should have at the very least given Miami (Fla.) a game last year. On paper it should have beaten Arizona State, Northwestern and Louisville in 2014. On paper it should have dominated Wake Forest and Boston College in 2015.
None of those things happened, so until Notre Dame can actually prove it can put a consistent product on the field, and be mentally and emotionally ready to play its game week-after-week its ability to make the playoffs remains a major question mark.
If the questions the Irish face right now are answered positively, and if the talented offensive line can play to its potential, the Irish could make the ESPN prognosticators look like geniuses.
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