SOUTH BEND, Ind. — It’s more about picking poison than it is finding an unexpected path of low resistance when it comes to potential playoff opponents for No. 6 Notre Dame.
And the Irish (9-1) and head coach Marcus Freeman still need to earn their way into the first-ever 12-team version of the College Football Playoff, continuing that quest Saturday night (7 EST/NBC) at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx against an unbeaten Army team (9-0) sporting both the nation’s longest active winning streak (13) and the Cadets’ highest national ranking (18th AP/19th CFP) since 1962.
But in the fun world of hypotheticals, the first-round home playoff matchup projected by the latest CFP rankings and seedings on Tuesday night’s snapshot for 8 seed Notre Dame against 9 seed Alabama (8-2) is an on-paper matchup that’s more favorable than many of the potential others.
Again, in these analyses, you’re splitting hairs in degrees of goodness/greatness and looking for stress points in a team’s makeup, not identifying overt weaknesses that can be exposed.
In looking at the top 12-ranked teams as well as 14th-ranked BYU, which at the moment would be in the field as the Big 12 champ, only BYU (58th) has a lower-ranked run defense national ranking among those teams than does Alabama at No. 53.
To go against a Notre Dame rushing offense that’s 12th in rushing yards per game (216.7) and fourth in yards per carry (6.0). And Alabama’s own rush offense (29th) isn’t as formidable against some of the other playoff teams pairing it against ND’s No. 43-ranked rush defense — by far its lowest defensive ranking category.
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And just for the record, Indiana is first nationally and Ole Miss second in run defense, one of five very important metrics predictive of teams that play for and win playoff games. The others are rush offense, pass efficiency, total defense and turnover margin.
Alabama is also underwhelming or just plain whelming in sacks allowed (54th), red-zone offense (64th), turnovers lost (37th), total defense (32nd) and sacks (57th). And while the Crimson Tide does have the 14th-best pass-efficiency rate to attack ND’s No. 1-ranked pass-efficiency defense, there are seven teams in the field ranked higher in that stat category.
Granted, these stat rankings have been amassed against schedules or varying difficulty. So, they measure trends more than absolute strengths and weaknesses, but those are still valuable data.
And if you strip away the brand names and just look at the numbers in the matchups, the most favorable playoff matchup for ND — other than Group of 5 Boise State and Big 12 leader BYU — is .... Georgia. And the worst matchup is not No. 1 Oregon, but Ohio State.
Note: The stats rankings are reflective as of Monday before any of the midweek games were played this week.
Back to the BCS?
For those wondering how the old BCS formula of polls and computers would have calculated this week’s freeze frame of the projected College Football Playoff Field, it’s pretty similar to how the CFP committee did.
A website called bcsknowhow.com and its Twitter/X feed calculates the simulated BCS formula each week and plugs those comparisons into its rankings and bracket. This week, the same 12 teams are in both brackets, with some variations of who plays who.
ND, for instance, would play Georgia at home in an 8-9 first-round game instead of Alabama.
And as far as computer rankings, here’s how the Sagarin computer rankings — one of those used in the old BCS formula — ranked the Top 12 teams: 1. Alabama, 2. Texas, 3. Ohio State, 4. Georgia, 5. Ole Miss, 6. Notre Dame, 7. Oregon, 8. Penn State, 9. Tennessee, 10. Miami, 11. South Carolina, 12. Indiana.
Context and response to NFL rumors
That Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman got asked Thursday, in his weekly Zoom call with the media, about potential future interest in coaching in the NFL — someday — was as responsible on one level as it was absurd on another.
Here’s the context: NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero for the third straight year put out a list of rising head coaching candidates to watch in the upcoming NFL coaching carousel, which already had started spinning for the 2024-25 offseason.
It’s a thoughtful piece, including 22 coaches listed alphabetically, of which Freeman was included. Another coach with ND ties, former Irish defensive end and current Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver, was also on the list.
Freeman was not linked to any specific current or anticipated opening. It was a reflection on the job he’s doing at Notre Dame and PERHAPS how that might translate to the NFL level, where he has never coached, not even as an assistant.
Hours later, at least one report surfaced of possible replacements for Freeman should he leave for the NFL, presumably not before Saturday night’s Yankee Stadium matchup with Army.
But if Freeman coaxes the Irish into the College Football Playoff, his name will almost certainly come up in coaching rumors, in the NFL and in the college ranks. And he could actually be targeted at some point, so gauging his reaction to the rumors and how he would handle those was interesting, even if it turns out to be abjectly irrelevant in the near future.
“I think it's just an example of what I tell our players every day,” Freeman said. “With team glory and team success comes individual recognition and individual glory. And I know and everybody, hopefully, in this program understands that without everybody in this program accomplishing their roles, that we're not going to achieve the success that we want on the football field on Saturdays.
“And so, when you do your job and everybody gets their job done and you have success, there are going to be certain individuals each week, certain parts of the year, that have individual recognition and individual glory. Listen, it takes us all to achieve the success that we aspire to have. And so that, to me your name is floating out there is a reflection of how this program is playing and performing every day and on Saturdays.
“As for me, I try not to waste time thinking about an uncertain future. I tell our players all the time like your future is uncertain. So, I try not to waste time thinking about things that aren't in the moment. So, I haven't spent any time really thinking about what the future will provide.
“Do I ever want to coach in the NFL? I have no clue. I don't even know what that entails really right now, because I've never done it. But I'm just focused on staying here in the present and getting this team ready to have a great Thursday practice and, hopefully, putting in the work to achieve the outcome that we want on Saturday.”
Buchner again
After simulating Navy QB Blake Horvath leading up to Notre Dame’s 51-14 victory over the Mids on Oct. 26, former Irish starting QB and current walk-on wide receiver Tyler Buchner was back at it again this week serving as Bryson Daily’s act-alike as the scout-team QB for the Army game.
And drawing rave reviews from Freeman.
“Really, has owned the position and studied it and practiced it and walked through,” Freeman said. “And he's done a great job of being our scout-team quarterback this week, and understanding all the details that this offense truly entails — from the cadence to the motions to the specific running points and throwing opportunities that they've utilized.
“He's done as well as we could have asked to prepare us Tuesday and Wednesday for this challenge we are going to face on Saturday.”
Buchner started the first two games of the 2022 season at QB for the Irish in Freeman's first season as head coach, then suffered an injury that wiped out the rest of the regular season. He returned to start the Gator Bowl at the end of that season, then transferred to Alabama for the 2023 season, before transferring back after that season to play lacrosse at ND and get his degree.
He walked on to the football team this past summer.
O-line bounce-back?
In the game immediately following its anointment as one of 10 Joe Moore Award finalists, Notre Dame’s offensive line didn’t entirely look the part on Saturday against Virginia.
The Irish amassed 89 yards in penalties in the 35-14 Irish victory, the most since racking up 99 in the Aug. 31 season-opening win at Texas A&M. And 41 of the 89 yards against the Cavaliers were pinned on ND’s offensive line (two other holding penalties and a false start were not).
So how did the O-line respond in practice this week?
“It's been a point of emphasis,” Freeman said. “We have to play cleaner. We have to play with better technique. And some of those penalties were the result of poor technique. And we have to address it in practice. And they have been, they've been working on it.
“I have a lot of confidence in our offensive line and [O-line] coach [Joe] Rudolph and the job he does with them. But we all know that any penalty — especially those penalties on Saturday — is unacceptable. So, what do you do about it? You own it. You identify it. You come up with a plan to attack it and practice and you work tirelessly at it.
“And they've done a wonderful job. It's been a really good week of practice for our entire program, but specifically our offensive line.”
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