How Long Before Notre Dame Will Win Another National Title?

There are numerous current droughts in Notre Dame football that are often highlighted as reminders of how its glory days have either dissipated or, to the ultimate pessimist, are forever gone.

Among them are only two top 10 finishes in the last 22 seasons (2005 and 2012), zero major bowl victories over that same time (after recording an NCAA high 10 in the 25 years from 1969-93) and, above all, no national title since 1988, a span of 27 seasons.

From the school’s first consensus national title in 1924 through its most recent in 1988, Notre Dame produced 11 such campaigns in those 65 years, or one approximately every six seasons. The three longest previous droughts without a consensus title were:

• 16 seasons from 1950-65

However, even then the 1953 Fighting Irish that finished No. 2 with a 9-0-1 ledger saw No. 1 Maryland lose to Oklahoma — a team Notre Dame defeated in Norman — in the Orange Bowl. Back then, though, it didn’t matter, because the championship was voted on at the end of the regular season and bowl games were not included (part of the reason why the Irish chose not to accept bowl bids until 1969, after the Associated Press in 1968 decided to take the vote after the bowl games).

Also, in 1964 Notre Dame at least won a share of the national title by being awarded the MacArthur Bowl by the National Football Foundation and Hall of Fame. Again, similar to 1953, Alabama won the AP and UPI titles in 1964 despite losing in the Orange Bowl to Texas.

• 12 seasons from 1931-42

Notre Dame lost the title on the last day of the 1938 season and finished unbeaten in 1941 (8-0-1) but No. 4.

• 10 seasons from 1978-87

That means if Notre Dame has another four-year cycle without this year's freshman class winning a national title in football, it would reach 32 years — doubling the previous longest swoon of 16. Lost somewhat in the conversation is just how difficult it is to capture the grand prize.

Entering the 2016 football season, Notre Dame owns the No. 1 all-time winning percentage in the Football Subdivision (.73215). Yet take a look at some other all-time top 10 programs (either in wins or percentage) and what a challenge winning a title has been for them too:

• Michigan went 48 years (1949-96) before splitting one with Nebraska in 1997. So it’s been one title over the past 67 seasons for the Wolverines.

• The University of Texas, the ultimate football-mad state with every resource available — recruiting hotbed, facilities, financial wherewithal ... — went 35 years (1970-2004) without a consensus title, and has one the past 46 years.

• The Ohio State University went 33 years (1969-2001) without a No. 1 placement — and even the one in 2002 was aided by a controversial call in overtime.

• Over the past 30 seasons, Oklahoma has the same number of No. 1 finishes as Notre Dame (one). Bob Stoops became an instant legend when he directed the Sooners to the 2000 national title in only his second year on the job, but some angst has been in the program after not winning any in the last 15 years when OU followers might have thought at least three or four more would be forthcoming.

• Tennessee went 46 years between national titles in 1951 and 1998. Fellow SEC power LSU had a drought of 44 years (1959-2002), while it took Auburn 52 seasons (1958-2009) between national championships.

• After splitting the national title in 1978, it took USC 24 years to split another one in 2003 (with LSU), although the eventual result would be probation down the road.

• Georgia (1980) and Clemson 1981) captured national titles in back-to-back years, but have not been able to repeat the feat in more than three decades despite often advertising its stellar recruiting prowess.

The point is not to justify Notre Dame's drought but to appreciate how everything has to fall absolutely perfectly to reach the Promised Land. However, there are at least two other factors currently that make achieving the feat more difficult than ever for the Fighting Irish: Nick Saban and Urban Meyer.

Never since the start of the AP poll in 1936 have two college football coaches in business at the same time have had such a stranglehold on the road to No. 1. They have combined to win seven of the last 10 titles (Saban has four and Meyer three). In essence, Saban has become the Frank Leahy of this era with four national titles in seven years.

And for all the joy Notre Dame faithful might feel in the recent recruiting uptick — 17 verbal commitments so far that put them at No. 7 in the Rivals.com ranking for the 2017 haul, led by nine four-star players — guess who are 1-2? Gee, what a surprise: Ohio State (including three five stars and 10 four stars) and Alabama (including two five stars and 11 four stars), which generally finishes at the top in February. No matter how well one school does, the specter of Alabama and Ohio State is always going to loom that they are doing better.

Yet even Saban has been unable to finish unbeaten the past six years, and had to overcome home losses in November (the kiss of death in the past) in 2011 and 2012 to win it all. Meyer at Florida in 2006 and Ohio State in 2014 needed help from the outside to play in the title game, or the Playoff. In 2006 it was a shocking 13-9 loss by USC to UCLA, and in 2014 it was the vote of the Playoff Selection Committee.

Now in his seventh season at Notre Dame, head coach Brian Kelly has the overall operation in its best position from a roster standpoint to be a consistent top 10-15 program, and even a bona fide Playoff contender, since the early 1990s.

Can Notre Dame ever win another national title again? It still has the tradition and resources to be in the conversation, just like it was in 2012 and 2015. It is expected to at least vie for a Playoff berth. in 2016, and produce its first consecutive 10-win seasons sine 1992 (10-1-1) and 1993 (11-1).

That will be the expectation anyway. Whether it might take the duration of time it did for Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, Tennessee, LSU … is a question that will remain.