How Important Would Victories Over Clemson, OSU Be To Brian Kelly's Legacy?
Clemson made a huge splash in the 2021 recruiting class over the weekend, earning commits from four players in the Rivals top 150 players, including the No. 1 overall player defensive end Korey Foreman.
These commits will have no impact on Clemson's roster when the Tigers head to South Bend to face the Fighting Irish on Nov. 7 this fall. But the Tigers are well on their way to possibly having the nation's top overall recruiting class in back-to-back seasons in 2020 and 2021, with every one of those players having eligibility through Notre Dame's matchup with Clemson in 2022 and 2023 — the same seasons the Irish have a home-and-home with Ohio State.
Based on what Brian Kelly told Pete Thamel from Yahoo! last summer, those seasons could very well be his last in South Bend.
That means over the next four seasons, Kelly will have at least five opportunities to lead Notre Dame to victory over two of the three premier programs in the college football playoff era. The Buckeyes and the Tigers have combined for three national championships in that time span and eight playoff births. The only other program with a similar resume is Alabama.
How Notre Dame performs in those five contests will have a dramatic impact on Kelly's legacy in South Bend, as each game is a chance at a signature win that has eluded him throughout much of his career.
Rare Chances at Glory in South Bend
In Kelly's 10 seasons at the helm, Notre Dame has had 11 games against opponents ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll at the time.
He's won three of those contests, but seven were played on the road, three in bowl games and just one at home — against the 2018 Stanford team, which finished 9-4 and unranked in the AP Poll.
Given the recent success and apparent sustainability of both Clemson and Ohio State, there near locks to be in the top 10 — or even the top 5 — each time they play Notre Dame. The good news for Kelly is that three out of the five will be played at home and two out of the three Clemson games will be played in South Bend in November.
A win over either in 2020, 2022 or 2023, assuming Notre Dame only has one loss, should equate to a Fighting Irish playoff berth.
But that far from guarantees a victory, either. Clemson and Ohio State certainly have the talent to render Notre Dame 0-5 against them. In the current 2020 recruiting rankings, Clemson is No. 1 and Ohio State is No. 5 and they have eight combined five-star prospects signed to Notre Dame's one.
Clemson is off to a hot start in the class of 2021 and currently ranks No. 1, but Ohio State isn't far behind at No. 2. Both already have nine total commitments and one apiece from top-10 overall players.
If there's a glimmer of hope, it's that Notre Dame is No. 3 in the class of 2021 team rankings, with three commits currently in the top 50 and five in the top 10. Kelly has also shown that he has a newfound dedication to recruiting and appears to be putting in more effort than normal on the trail.
How Will Kelly Be Remembered?
If Kelly does coach another four seasons, in all likelihood he will have the most wins in school history, a record currently held by the legendary Knute Rockne, who has 105 career victories.
But if Kelly accomplishes this without a national championship, a single major bowl win or a victory over a top-five team (although, Notre Dame did beat Michigan State in 2013, which finished No. 3 in the final AP Poll), all those victories won't really mean all that much when comparing him to the all-time great Irish coaches.
That's why the upcoming Ohio State and Clemson contests are so crucial, especially with both USC and Stanford going through potential down periods.
If Kelly is able to win two or three contests against Clemson and Ohio State, he won't have a national championship, but he will have at least shown Notre Dame can compete with the nation's elite.
Of course, a playoff victory or a national championship would go a lot further, but to make that happen Notre Dame will likely have to go through Clemson or Ohio State anyway.
The worst-case scenario is Kelly goes 0-5 and solidifies his reputation as a coach unable to win the big game, but that's a risk (I'm sure) he's will to take.
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