HOOPS Preview: Notre Dame Vs. Louisville

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NOTRE DAME (13-5, 3-2 ACC) VS. LOUISVILLE (13-4, 3-1 ACC)

Where: Purcell Pavilion (Notre Dame, Ind.)

Rankings: Both teams are unranked.

Time/TV: 7 p.m. ET/ESPN2

Last Meeting: Louisville 71, Notre Dame 64 at Louisville, Ky., on March 4, 2017.

Series Info: Louisville leads the all-time series 21-15.

After a strong 3-0 start in league play, Notre Dame aims to stay above .500 in the ACC with a home win over Louisville. Head coach Mike Brey’s group has lost two straight games, including a 69-68 heartbreaker versus then-No. 20 North Carolina Jan. 13.

The Cardinals are coming off a 73-69 road win over then-No. 23 Florida State Jan. 10 and a 94-86 home win over Virginia Tech Jan. 13.

Here is a preview of both teams heading into tonight’s matchup.

Notre Dame enters tonight fresh off a difficult 69-68 loss to North Carolina and will be trying to avoid a three-game slide against a talented Louisville team.

The Irish built a 66-60 lead versus the Tar Heels, but missed their final 11 shots over the last six minutes to fall just short.

With senior leaders Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell both out of the lineup the last three games, Notre Dame has put up just 57.3 points per contest while shooting 33.7 percent (61 of 181) from the field and 30.2 percent (19 of 63) on three-point attempts.

The Irish may get a much-needed spark offensively tonight if Farrell — who is averaging 15.9 points per game — is able to return to the lineup after missing the last three and half games.

Freshman wing D.J. Harvey, sophomore forward John Mooney and junior forward Elijah Burns have all made their first career starts. It will be interesting to see who Brey goes with moving forward once Farrell returns to the starting lineup.

Does Harvey remain with the group or does Brey go with a little more size in Mooney or Burns? In the last four games, Harvey is averaging 9.0 points and 5.8 rebounds per outing while Mooney is putting up 6.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per contest. The nod will likely go to one of those two.

Sophomore guard Nik Djogo has played almost 50 minutes the last two games and has taken advantage with a stat line of 8.5 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. Djogo will be counted on to provide solid minutes off the bench while Farrell is eased back into his normal workload.

Sophomore guard T.J. Gibbs has taken over the lead scoring role in ACC play with the injury to Farrell, averaging 16.0 points, 4.6 assists and 4.2 rebounds in 38.6 minutes per game.

Despite struggling offensively the last two games, junior guard Rex Pflueger continues to be the do-it-all guy for the Irish. In ACC play, he is averaging 9.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.2 steals per game.

The injuries to Colson and Farrell have allowed others to develop with extra minutes and that could benefit the team in a positive way once Farrell gets his normal minutes.

There probably wasn’t a program more ready to hit the court this season than Louisville after a tumultuous summer, which led to the firing of head coach Rick Pitino following an investigation into potential wrongdoing in the recruitment of five-star forward Brian Bowen.

The Cardinals are off to a solid start this season at 13-4 overall and 3-1 in ACC play. The non-conference portion of the schedule was a little rocky for interim coach David Padgett’s squad, which lost to arguably the top three teams it faced— Purdue (66-57), Seton Hall (79-77) and rival Kentucky (90-61).

However, the Cardinals have bounced back in ACC play by picking up good wins against Florida State (73-69) on the road and Virginia Tech (94-86) with a lone road loss to Clemson (74-69 in overtime).

Junior forward Deng Adel is the team’s top scorer at 15.8 points per game, and also provides 4.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per outing. Senior guard Quentin Snider is right behind Adel at 12.6 points, 4.1 assists and 3.1 rebounds per contest. Sophomore forward V.J. King (9.3 points and 3.8 rebounds per game) rounds out the perimeter for Louisville.

The frontcourt has great size with three players listed at 6-10 or taller. Junior Ray Spalding (11.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.6 steals per game) has started all 17 games for the Cardinals, while seven-footer Anas Mahmoud (8.0 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest) has made 12 starts. Freshman forward Malik Williams (3.6 points and 3.0 rebounds per outing) was in the opening lineup for the team’s last game against Virginia Tech and has made five starts this season.

The rest of Padgett’s bench consists of guard Ryan McMahon (6.9 points per game), forward Dwayne Sutton (3.9 points and 4.0 rebounds per contest) and guard Darius Perry (3.5 points per outing). Forward Jordan Nwora (4.9 points and 2.4 rebounds per game) could be part of the equation tonight, but has missed the team’s last three games.

Louisville is averaging 77.7 points per game (No. 104) this season, while shooting 45.3 percent from the field and 34.8 percent behind the arc. Opponents are scoring 67.4 points per game (No. 71) on the Cardinals, while shooting 38.9 percent overall and 30.6 percent from the behind the three-point line.

Despite the size of the team’s frontcourt, Louisville holds just a plus-2.7 rebounding margin (39.9-37.2) and averages 11.8 offensive rebounds per game (tied for 83rd nationally).

Per KenPom.com, Louisville’s adjusting defensive efficiency is No. 14 in the country with a 93.6 value which is points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent. The team’s effective defensive field goal percentage (44.0 percent) ranks No. 11 nationally.

The Irish have out-rebounded ACC opponents by a plus-7.8 margin (41.2-33.4) and upped their offensive rebounding average to 16.6 per game. Notre Dame has won the rebounding battle in four of its last five games — including a 45-37 mark versus UNC, the nation’s top team in that department.

So, Louisville’s size shouldn’t be too much of a problem in this one given North Carolina also threw size at the Irish.

Louisville’s defense could give the Irish some problems given the team’s struggles offensively recently. Notre Dame will have to find a way to be efficient this evening and shoot the three-ball as well as it did against North Carolina, when it knocked down 10 of 24 (41.7 percent).

Prediction

Notre Dame 74-70

This is based on the notion that Farrell will make an appearance tonight against the Cardinals. Brey mentioned on Saturday night that his presence would be an energy boost for the team and I think that helps propel the Irish tonight.

The experience and confidence gained over the past couple of games by players such as Harvey, Mooney and Djogo could pay off in a game like this. Notre Dame fell just short against North Carolina, but not tonight.

Notre Dame picks up a big home win to stay above .500 in league play.

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