Friday Five: How Jack Coan’s Prior Deep-Ball Numbers Can Help Notre Dame
My colleague Tyler Horka dove into Pro Football Focus’ season preview magazine and its outlook on Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan. PFF’s view on the Wisconsin grad transfer is more measured than the Notre Dame coaches’ we heard this spring.
What stood out to both of us is PFF’s preview doesn’t see much of an upgrade in Notre Dame’s deep-passing ability with Coan at quarterback, if he wins the job as expected.
“He has shown an ability to go through progressions and throw accurately, but he had some trouble downfield with Wisconsin in 2019,” PFF’s preview read.
I’m curious to see if Coan’s deep-passing numbers were a function of Wisconsin’s scheme or his ability. I’m initially inclined to believe the former.
Coan threw downfield (20-plus air yards) on just 9.4 percent of his 2019 drop-backs, which was tied for 109th among 113 Football Bowl Subdivision quarterbacks with at least 30 deep attempts. On those, though, he was sixth in completion rate (50 percent). He ranked eighth in PFF’s “big-time throw” rate on deep passes (34.4 percent).
To PFF’s point, he was a bit boom or bust. His “turnover-worthy play” rate of 20 percent on downfield throws was the worst among those 113 quarterbacks. I’m not sure a go big or go home deep passing game is the worst thing for a Notre Dame offense that struggled vertically a year ago and is seeking more explosion. Those numbers feel like a net positive for the Irish if Coan can replicate them in 2021.
Ian Book completed 39 percent of his deep throws in 2020 with a big-time throw rate of 23.4 percent — 36th out of 70 quarterbacks with at least 30 deep attempts. His turnover-worthy play rate was seventh best. It worked in an offense that led Notre Dame to a 10-0 start, but couldn’t keep pace with more potent ones in its final two games.
Coan’s ability to make quick decisions and deliver accurate intermediate throws may be his strongest selling point for helping Notre Dame’s offense move the ball.
That will be important when throwing behind an overhauled offensive line. And it fits well with the two most proven returning pass catchers: yards-after-catch weapons Michael Mayer and Avery Davis. Notre Dame thinks its receiving corps is faster and more dangerous in the open field than the 2020 receiver mainstays. If so, that plays into Coan’s intermediate and quick-strike strength.
Explosive offenses don’t have to be deep-ball centric or reliant on them. For instance, Alabama’s Mac Jones was 59th out of 70 quarterbacks in deep attempt rate in 2020. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields were below 50th as well.
But Notre Dame does need more than what it got from its passing operation in 2020 to approach those teams’ explosiveness levels. I’m not quite ruling out Coan’s ability to help them increase deep-passing productivity given his 2019 numbers and what he offered this spring.
2. Brenan Vernon
Some perspective on the magnitude of 2023 Mentor (Ohio) High defensive end Brenan Vernon’s commitment to Notre Dame:
• Vernon, the No. 9 overall prospect in his class, would be the third-highest ranked player to sign with Notre Dame in the Rivals era if he remains a top-10 recruit. Only Jimmy Clausen (No. 1, 2007) and Jaylon Smith (No. 3, 2013) were rated higher than him when they signed.
• Since 2016, there have been 23 top-100 recruits from Ohio who Ohio State has offered. Remove the two 2023 players who are currently uncommitted, and all but five of the remaining 21 have committed to or signed with the Buckeyes.
Notre Dame is responsible for three of the exceptions: offensive lineman Tommy Kraemer in 2016, wide receiver Lorenzo Styles Jr. in 2021 and Vernon. It is pursuing those uncommitted 2023 recruits, Pickerington Central’s Sonny Styles and Findlay’s Luke Montgomery.
One curiosity around Ohio native Marcus Freeman’s hiring as defensive coordinator was his ability to beat Ohio State head-to-head for Buckeye State recruits, even if it happens just once every couple cycles.
Landing Vernon is a good sign he and defensive line coach Mike Elston (also an Ohioan) can contend for the state’s best defensive line recruits. It’s usually a position of strength in Ohio. Six of those 23 top-100s play on the defensive line.
3. Transfer Rankings
Eight of the top 20 players in The Athletic’s top-100 transfer rankings are headed to teams that finished in the Associated Press top 10 last season. Notre Dame has two of them, Coan (No. 7) and former Marshall guard Cain Madden (No. 9).
Everyone ranked in that range is expected to make meaningful contributions wherever they end up. Even the teams that show up at the top of the recruiting rankings are hitting the portal to find impact players. Alabama has two of the top 20. Georgia has three. Oklahoma landed the No. 1 player, ex-Tennessee running back Eric Gray.
Taking transfers can patch up positions with uncertainty, but when programs with some of the best rosters nationally are doing so, it ought to underscore the idea that everyone deals with personnel losses and questions somewhere on the roster just about every offseason. Sometimes a transfer becomes the smart option to help ensure those positions aren’t a liability.
At the same time, it can be a case-by-case basis.
Oklahoma turning to Gray or Notre Dame grabbing Coan and Madden to ease inexperience concerns feels a bit different than Florida State snagging five players in the top 100 and eight transfers overall. The Seminoles needed help replacing departed stars and a way to mask average recent recruiting results. Notre Dame doesn’t fall in that category.
4. NIL And Notre Dame
The NIL era started at Notre Dame right after midnight Thursday, with safety Kyle Hamilton, running back Kyren Williams and women’s basketball forward Sam Brunelle announcing partnerships with Yoke Gaming. It’s an app started by former Irish walk-on running back Mick Assaf that lets fans pay to play video games with athletes.
By the end of Thursday, Yoke’s partnerships with Notre Dame athletes had reached double digits, and Assaf tweeted its total college athlete lineup had passed 10,000. It’s a readily available NIL opportunity for the players, who simply just had to reach out to an old teammate.
It’s also a savvy move by Assaf, who started the company just last year and is trying to grow it. He gains a lot of exposure from the national magnifying glass on the first days of the NIL era in addition to the Notre Dame players promoting it. Mutual benefit at work.
5. Basketball Assistants
Mike Brey’s staff retool is complete with new assistants Anthony Solomon and Antoni Wyche on board. They both have defensive backgrounds and know the program from prior time spent there (Solomon as a coach, Wyche as a player). It’s hard not to like both those attributes.
Their first job will be recruiting, where Notre Dame needs to start making some headway in an important class.
The Irish could have around five newcomers in their 2022 recruiting haul, but right now, do not hold any commitments and have hosted just one player for an official visit: Philips Exeter (N.H.) forward Dom Campbell. Top-50 La Lumiere (Ind.) High guard J.J. Starling taking a pair of unofficial visits to Notre Dame in June was a positive development, though.
A few offers to 2022 and 2023 recruits went out in late June after those evaluation periods. Don’t be surprised to see more in July when both new assistants are out watching recruits during the live evaluation periods.
July is an important month for Notre Dame to start identifying more targets and making progress with some of its long-standing ones. Its success may best be measured by how many official visits Notre Dame can get lined up for September and October.
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