Defining A 'Successful' 2018 Notre Dame Season: Then And Now

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A successful season by a college football team is never a one-size-fits-all proposition. A two-loss campaign at Alabama or Clemson would be the foreshadowing of the Apocalypse, whereas at a Vanderbilt or Indiana, heaven in comparison would be a letdown.

Once upon at a time at Notre Dame, a two- or three-loss football season was viewed as the floor, but in recent decades it’s been the ceiling.

In the past 24 years, every time a Fighting Irish follower was optimistic that Notre Dame was on a promising trajectory, it would then plummet back to “same ol’ overhyped Notre Dame.” To wit since the turn of the century: from 9-3 in 2000 to 5-6 in 2001, from 10-3 in 2002 to 5-7 in 2003, from 10-3 in 2006 to 3-9 in 2007 … and especially most recently from 10-3 in 2015 to 4-8 in 2016.

In other words, it has failed to become a "program," or an operation that reloads year after year no matter the personnel losses, coaching staff changes, scheduling quirks, etc.

The week of this year’s opener versus Michigan, we outlined four crucial elements — our version of a Playoff Final Four, if you will — we believed would clearly define a “successful” 2018 Notre Dame football season.

It’s not over yet, but here is what we wrote at the time:

1. A Minimum Of 10 Wins

This in and of itself would not constitute a successful campaign because it’s hardly been unique the past 24 years. The Irish were 10-3 in 2002, 2006, 2015 and 2017 (in addition to the 12-1 mark in 2012).

Been there. Done that.

What has not been achieved, though, since 1991-93 is back-to-back 10-win campaigns.

A 10-3 mark in 2018 by no means would indicate that Notre Dame has “arrived.” What it will reaffirm is that by winning 10 games for the third time in four years, it has at least become a top-15 caliber program. That’s not what anyone at the school is aspiring to as the Holy Grail, but at least one drought on the field will have ended.

In other words, anything less than 10-3 will be a huge disappointment, no matter how one would try to spin it.

A 10-3 outcome continues the status quo malaise of “we’re not there yet,” but it would be better that than a full 25 years of not achieving double-digit wins in consecutive years.

2. Hold Serve At Home

Since 1990, or the past 28 seasons through 2017, Notre Dame has finished unbeaten at home only three times: 1998, 2012 and 2015. It came close last year too, with the lone blemish a one-point loss to Georgia (20-19), which played for and lost the national title in overtime.

A third time in seven seasons under head coach Brian Kelly, entering his ninth year, would be a laudable achievement. Plus, vanquishing preseason ranked foes such as Michigan (14), Stanford (13) and Florida State (19) likely should keep the Irish in Playoff contention entering Thanksgiving weekend at USC.

In the 68 years since 1950, Notre Dame has been unscathed at home 13 times. The overall record those years was 130-19-2 — a .868 winning percentage, highlighted by four consensus national titles, a shared one and six near misses, or at least playing for it all.

3. A Sweep Of Michigan/USC

Kelly’s dicta for the base of a successful regular season is three-fold: Win the opener, win the finale, and win the rivalry games.

This year the Irish open with the Wolverines and close with the Trojans, the school’s two prime rivals the past 40 years.

There have been 32 seasons where Notre Dame played both Michigan and USC, and it swept them six times. In those six years the Irish regular season record was 61-7 (.897).

Moreover, since 1994 (the beginning of this down 24-year cycle), the Irish have played both the Wolverines and Trojans 17 times in the same year. Only once were both conquered — and not coincidentally it was the 12-0 regular season in 2012.

4. Win A Major Bowl And/Or Get To Playoff

Over the past 24 years (1994-2017), Notre Dame has lost a minimum of three games 23 times. The outlier was the 12-1 finish in 2012.

We repeat this ad nauseum: 10-3 would be a been there, done that, status quo outcome again. No “wow factor” is involved.

For 2018 to be truly different, it must either end not winning a major bowl in 24 years, or reach the four-team College Football Playoff, which ESPN’s Football Power Index has Notre Dame at No. 4 for most likely to do so.

This means either a 10-2 or better regular season — and then no third defeat.

That would be something different, not status quo, to put the proverbial cherry on top.

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