Buy Or Sell: Notre Dame Will Have Three Players Picked By End Of Round Two
Draft analysts expect Notre Dame to match its six 2019 picks in this week’s draft. It would be the first time since 2013-14 the Irish have had consecutive drafts with at least six selections.
The odds appear to be in Notre Dame’s favor. It is a matter of where those players are chosen. Some full mock drafts have even predicted seven Irish selections.
A Notre Dame player going in the first round is unlikely. Day two, though, is where Notre Dame is expected see plenty of activity. But how soon? How many Notre Dame players will be picked in the second round, or sneak into the end of the first?
BlueandGold.com’s Lou Somogyi and Patrick Engel have set the over/under at three draft picks by the end of round two and discuss their stances on buying or selling that number.
BUY: Lou Somogyi
During Notre Dame’s halcyon football days from 1988-93 it had a stretch of four years out of five in the NFL Draft from 1990-94 where the Fighting Irish had anywhere from three to six players selected within the first two rounds.
That did not occur again until 2014 — 20 years later — when offensive lineman Zack Martin was taken in the first round, before defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt and tight end Troy Niklas were selected in the second. Just two years later, four Fighting Irish players were chosen in the first two rounds: offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley and wideout Will Fuller in the first, and linebacker Jaylon Smith with center Nick Martin in the second.
With a 33-6 record the past three seasons that ranks sixth among 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, Notre Dame might not yet be in the same category with on-field marquee victories as it was from 1988-93, but the individual talent it has developed and produced have become more conspicuous to NFL front offices.
I agree that Cole Kmet has all the physical attributes to be the sixth Notre Dame tight end since 2006 to be chosen with the first two rounds, more likely the second round than the first. He has been rated among the top two at his position. That doesn’t guarantee top-two round status, though. Even in 2011 Kyle Rudolph was the first overall pick at tight end — but it didn’t occur until the second round at No. 43 overall.
Admittedly, it is a roll of the dice, but I’m going to buy that Notre Dame could have three players go in the first two rounds because of what Mel Kiper Jr., noted about the “historically” prominent numbers — or Calvin Johnson-like data — that wide receiver Chase Claypool registered at the NFL Combine. At 6-4 and 238 pounds, Claypool posted a 4.42 40-yard dash, a 40.5-inch vertical jump and 19 bench press reps of 225 pounds.
These type of numbers, combined with the production and maturity demonstrated by Claypool his senior year, could indeed vault him among the top 50 players. Kiper in a recent NFL mock draft even had Claypool in the late first round.
Back in the summer, I noted how Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem could be the first pair of defensive ends at Notre Dame selected in the top two rounds of the same draft since the hallowed tandem of Ross Browner (first round) and Willie Fry (second) in the spring of 1978. I doubt both will be selected that high, but I don’t see either dropping below the fourth round, either.
Kareem had the more productive career, but Okwara has that twitch that I believe will place him among the top 60 picks, just because his skill set as an edge rusher is such a cherished commodity.
SELL: Patrick Engel
I’ll forecast two Notre Dame players in the first two rounds: Kmet and Okwara.
Okwara, to me, is an easy choice as a second-round pick. As I wrote Monday, his pass-rush production didn’t drop off despite his injury-shortened 2019. He didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, but he was hand-timed at 4.6 at his personal pro day and reported that he ran a 4.53 last spring. If we are to take either of those as legit, they would make him one of the fastest edge players in the draft.
He is not all speed either. He brings power and a willingness to meet blockers, and his long arms are one of his best separation tools. Anyone who drafts him is getting a malleable edge player with a lot of the requisite tools and room to get stronger. Even if he is no longer viewed as a possible first-rounder, some team will see the traits and value he still brings and take him as their second pick.
With Kmet, meanwhile, I’m going to play the odds. There has been at least one tight end taken by the end of the second round every year since 1987. Tight ends are a more involved and important part of the game than they were 30 years ago, so I have no reason to project that 32-year streak to end.
In the last 10 drafts, a tight end has been picked by No. 43 overall all but one time. Kmet has been linked to tight end-needy teams like the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts, who hold picks No. 34, 43 and 44 and 50.
As for Claypool, I’ll side with projections from the analysts who have him in the third round of most mock drafts and ranked between Nos. 10-12 at his position. The depth of this receiver class will push him outside the top 64 picks.
If I were drafting, I’d consider two Notre Dame players in the second round as well. But Kmet, the one who feels like the safest best to go by the end of round two, represents a worse value to me as a second-rounder than Okwara and Claypool.
This is a weak tight end class, and while Kmet’s obvious physical tools warrant his status as the draft’s top tight end, I don’t think he’s polished enough right now as a route runner or run blocker to stand that far apart from those behind him to take in the second round. I’d be more comfortable passing on him in the second round and grabbing another skilled receiving tight end like Florida Atlantic’s Harrison Bryant or Washington’s Hunter Bryant in the third or fourth round.
Meanwhile, I’d be willing to spend second-rounders on Okwara and Claypool. I view Okwara as a top-50 player in the draft. Receivers with Claypool’s blend of size and skill are commodities, and even in a loaded class at his spot, he offers a unique blend among his counterparts when factoring in his positional versatility and run blocking ability. He is a personal favorite for Kiper and Kirk Herbstreit.
----
• Talk about it inside Rockne’s Roundtable
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel
• Subscribe to our podcast on iTunes
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, Blue & Gold Illustrated.
• Follow us on Twitter: @BGINews, @BGI_LouSomogyi, @BGI_MikeSinger, @PatrickEngel_, @ToddBurlage and @AndrewMentock.
• Like us on Facebook.