BGI staff predictions: Notre Dame vs. Stanford
The No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) will look to continue their late-season surge when they wrap up their regular season against the struggling Stanford Cardinal (3-8) in Palo Alto on Saturday (8 p.m. ET on FOX).
This is a matchup of teams going in opposite directions. The Irish have won six consecutive games by an average score of 37-14 and have outscored their last three opponents 117-9. Meanwhile, the Cardinal have lost six straight — all to Pac-12 foes — by an average tally of 35-14.
Notre Dame leads the all-time series with Stanford 21-13, but is just 7-9 in games played at Palo Alto. Irish head coach Brian Kelly lost six of his first eight games against the Cardinal, but has guided his program to pair of 21-point victories in the last two meetings — 38-17 in South Bend in 2018 and 45-24 in Palo Alto in 2019. Stanford head coach Davis Shaw has a 5-4 record against the Irish.
The Fighting Irish have been installed as 19.5-point favorites for Saturday’s game.
Season-to-date records
Todd Burlage — 9-2 straight up, 7-4 against the spread
Steve Downey — 9-2, 8-3
Patrick Engel — 9-2, 7-4
Tyler Horka — 9-2, 7-4
Greg Ladky — 6-1, 5-2
Mike Singer — 9-2, 7-4
Todd Burlage, contributing writer
Notre Dame 47, Stanford 6
For full disclosure, this blowout prediction emphatically exceeds the 31-13 final score I deduced for print in the Blue & Gold Illustrated magazine.
That’s because this time last week, I was still overvaluing a Stanford series in which Cardinal head coach David Shaw defeated Irish head coach Brian Kelly six times in eight tries from 2010-17.
Much has changed since 2017, and maybe even more has changed since last weekend. While Notre Dame was pitching a 55-0 shutout against Georgia Tech, Stanford got dumped 41-11 by rival Cal for its sixth straight loss.
Out of 130 FBS teams, Stanford rates in the bottom 25 nationally in nearly every pertinent statistical category, including rushing offense (126), total offense (121), scoring offense (112), rushing defense (127) and total defense (109).
And lest we forget, Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in 12 quarters, the Irish have won the last three games by an average of 36 points and they’ve beaten 41 straight unranked opponents.
Shaw enters this game with an 11-18 overall record during his last three-plus seasons at Stanford, while Kelly has lost only five games during that same timespan.
Notre Dame won each of its previous two meetings against the Cardinal by 21 points (2018 and 2019).
Steve Downey, managing editor for Blue & Gold Illustrated
Notre Dame 48, Stanford 9
The Oregon Ducks may not be top-five material, but it is still hard to believe this Stanford team was able to knock them off 31-24 in overtime Oct. 2. That feels like a lifetime ago. The Cardinal has since suffered six consecutive defeats by an average of three touchdowns per game, including a brutal 41-11 loss in the “Big Game” against rival Cal this past Saturday.
Stanford won an average of 10 games per season under head coach David Shaw from 2011-18 by featuring a power running game and a physical defense that was strong in the trenches. Both of those attributes are nowhere to be found in 2021.
The Cardinal ranks 126th nationally in rushing offense (89.8 yards per game) and has had start a national-high four quarterbacks this season — tied with Southern Miss — due in part to injuries and ineffectiveness. Sophomore Tanner McKee has been the best of the bunch for Stanford with an average of 239.4 passing yards per game and 14 touchdowns, but his return to lineup against Cal last week wasn’t enough to stop his team’s tailspin.
Stanford ranks 127th in the country in rushing defense (241.7 yards allowed per game), ahead of only Akron (246.0), Kansas (248.9) and Arkansas State (267.1). All but two of the Cardinal’s first 11 opponents — USC and Washington State — have rushed for at least 200 yards, including an eye-opening 441 racked up by Utah in a 52-7 beatdown Nov. 5 and 352 amassed by Cal. The loss to the Bears last week was truly a low point for the once-proud Cardinal defense. The big rushing day was part of a 636-yard onslaught during which Cal averaged 10.1 yards per play.
Making matters worse the Cardinal has coughed the ball up 17 times while coming up with just eight takeaways to rank 119th nationally in turnover margin.
With Notre Dame playing its best football of the season in November and Stanford circling the drain, this could get very ugly. The Irish will cruise to their third straight win by at least three touchdowns against the Cardinal.
Patrick Engel, editor
Notre Dame 42, Stanford 13
The Cardinal offense didn’t regain its pulse when quarterback Tanner McKee returned from injury last week. He completed 26 of 43 throws for 239 yards with two interceptions in a 30-point home loss to Cal. But even with him in sharper form, Stanford’s offense is deeply flawed. The Cardinal 112th in yards per carry and has pass protection problems (93rd in sacks allowed) all over. Their defense is in similarly poor shape.
This is a chance for Notre Dame to remove all doubt before halftime for the second straight week. McKee is more capable of leading a touchdown drive or two than Georgia Tech backup Jordan Yates last week, but he has struggled against strong defenses. All seven of his interceptions have come against teams that rank in the top 40 in yards per play.
Notre Dame could pick how it wanted to move the ball last week. The Irish should be able to again in this game. It’d be fitting for them to put forth a dominant rushing effort against a team that has done so to them a few times in the last decade.
Tyler Horka, staff writer
Notre Dame 45, Stanford 10
It’s been a long, tough season for the Cardinal since shocking then-No. 3 Oregon Oct. 2. Stanford has lost six straight games since that upset victory. A 45-point loss to Utah, a 21-point defeat to Oregon State and a 30-point no show in a rivalry game against Cal showed this Stanford team doesn’t have anything left in the tank.
Notre Dame has its eyes on big prizes, meanwhile. It hasn’t been close the last two times these teams have played. Notre Dame won by 21 each time. Watch for another multi-score blowout in this year’s regular-season finale. The Irish won’t have trouble moving the ball against Stanford’s No. 109-ranked defense. Expect a pile up of yards on the ground for Notre Dame against the Cardinal’s No. 127 ranked rushing defense. Kyren Williams, Chris Tyree, Logan Diggs, Tyler Buchner — heck, why not Audric Estime — all should have an easy time padding stats against an inept Stanford rushing defense.
If all goes well on the other side of the ball, then Notre Dame could very feasibly prevent an opponent from reaching the end zone for the fourth game in a row. It’s not going to be close in Palo Alto. College Football Playoff style points, anybody?
Greg Ladky, managing editor for BlueandGold.com
Notre Dame 38, Stanford 10
By the 12th game of the season, stats paint a pretty good picture of the type of team you have. For Stanford, it is a squad that is playing poorly on both offense and defense. Stanford ranks 121st (out of 130 teams) in total offense and 109th in total defense.
The Cardinal has lost six straight games, each to Pac-12 opponents, and is averaging just 14.3 points a game during that stretch. Last week, they allowed the visiting Cal Bears to rack up 636 yards of total offense, including 352 on the ground, in a rivalry game.
Stanford allows 2.73 sacks per game, which is 103rd in the country. Notre Dame ranks fourth in the nation with 3.46 sacks per game.
These numbers will all shine through on Saturday night.
I expect Notre Dame to run the ball very effectively. I expect the Irish defensive front to once again overwhelm the opposing offensive line.
For Irish fans that have yet to see Stanford play, you'll be surprised at the Cardinal’s lack of physicality, and the number of players they start that wouldn’t sniff the field for Notre Dame.
I might be too kind with this score prediction. These are two programs that have been trending in opposite directions in recent years.
Mike Singer, recruiting insider
Notre Dame 33, Stanford 6
To put it nicely, Stanford is not a very good football team, but they did Notre Dame and other one-loss teams a big favor when they upset Oregon Oct. 2. But then they went on to lose six straight Pac-12 games leading up to their matchup with the Irish.
Stanford’s offense looked good in some moments early this season, but it’s been poor late in the year. Notre Dame should have no issues going on the road to Palo Alto, especially considering you’ll be able to count on one hand the number of Cardinal fans in the stands.
----
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, Blue & Gold Illustrated.
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
• Sign up for Blue & Gold's news alerts and daily newsletter.
• Subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.
• Follow us on Twitter: @BGINews, @Rivals_Singer, @PatrickEngel_, @tbhorka and @ToddBurlage.
• Like us on Facebook.