Analysis: Notre Dame Recruiting & The One-Third Rule
Through the decades at Blueandgold.com, we have often spoken about “The One-Third Rule” in football recruiting.
In summary, in the majority of recruiting classes, about one-third of the group will feature multiple-year starters/future NFL players, one-third will be either special teams mainstays, reliable reserves or even start for a year, and one-third unfortunately either will have significant injury setbacks, academic maladies, transfer or just get lost in the shuffle of the numbers game.
The current senior class provides another example. Notre Dame originally signed 21 players in February 2017 and received a No. 13 ranking from Rivals — which was not bad considering the Fighting Irish had just finished 4-8 and a massive overhaul of the infrastructure was taking place with a brand new strength and conditioning staff and six new on-field coaches.
At one point that fall Notre Dame’s class ranked No. 6 in the country, but as the season was unraveling six players decommitted, including linebacker Pete Werner (Ohio State) and cornerback Paulson Adebo (Stanford).
So how did the One-Third Rule break down as they enter their senior seasons in 2020?
Multiple-Year Starters/NFL Caliber
Headlining this group are tight end Cole Kmet — already a second-round pick as a junior last spring — rover Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and right tackle Robert Hainsey.
Owusu-Koramoah has been projected in a mock draft next year as the No. 13 overall pick by ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay, and Hainsey was a rare true freshman starter on the 2017 line that won the Joe Moore Award.
However, left guard Aaron Banks also has 19 consecutive starts to his credit and also could have a pro career.
Middle linebacker Drew White at 6-0, 227 pounds might not have the prototype NFL frame, but he has been one of the top surprises of the Brian Kelly era, and could have two more years of starting ahead of him after tying Owusu-Koramoah last season for the team high in tackles (80, eight for loss).
Interior defensive linemen Kurt Hinish and Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa return as starters. Hinish answered the start all 13 games last year at the demanding nose tackle position, while Tagovailoa Amosa’s 477 snaps last season represent the most returning along the defensive line.
That’s seven, or one-third, from the 21 signed in the 2017 cycle.
Special Teams/On-The-Fringe Figures
This seven-man group out of the 21 will determine if the 2017 haul is average by Notre Dame standards, or can boost it to another level.
Highlighting the special teams aspect is kicker Jonathan Doerer, whom one could argue should be in the first category with his NFL-caliber leg. He enjoyed a fantastic debut as a 2019 starter, converting 17 of 20 field goals and all 57 extra points. He is the first Notre Dame kicker ever to score more than 100 points (108) in a season.
Offensive lineman Josh Lugg is the ultimate wild card because he started the final five games last season in place of an injured Hainsey, and is the probable first option in at either tackle or guard position — maybe even center — this season. If he returns for a fifth year in 2021, he is a safe bet as a full-time starter.
Both running back Jafar Armstrong and tight end Brock Wright could be in pro camps someday, but their progress this year will determine that.
A litany of injuries have prevented Armstrong from emerging as a potential force on offense. He has rushed for 505 yards and caught 27 passes, but last year he was limited to 122 yards and 2.7 yards per carry. Is he primed for a breakthrough like so many other backs under Kelly in their senior year?
The top-rated recruit for Notre Dame in this class, Wright (No. 44 by Rivals) has been a reliable blocking tight end each of his first three seasons while snaring four passes for 57 yards and a score. He might be overshadowed this year again by Tommy Tremble and maybe even freshman Michael Mayer, but Wright will remain a vital role player in the multiple tight end sets the Irish plan to utilize.
Former quarterback recruit Avery Davis remains a quality reserve at slot after catching 10 passes for 124 yards and two scores last season.
Finally, guard Dillan Gibbons is not in line for a starting position, at least not this year, but he played in all 13 games last season on special teams and could this year as well.
There’s your seven in this category — with several who could take on major roles.
Setbacks/Transfers
• Three members of this class had their football careers at Notre Dame ended because of medical disqualification by team doctors. They can remain at the school under grant-in-aid provided by the University to receive their degree, while the football scholarship would be opened up for someone else.
The first was linebacker David Adams, a former high school teammate of Hinish in Pittsburgh, after his freshman year.
Next was interior lineman Darnell Ewell in the summer of 2019. This year it was former safety-recruit-turned wideout Isaiah Robertson — who has graduated (he was an early entrant in January 2017) and put his name into the transfer portal. He will have two years of eligibility remaining after sitting out last season.
Running back C.J. Holmes was dismissed from school during his freshman year, transferred to Penn State, where he was a safety, and is now at Kent State.
Florida defensive end recruit Jonathon MacCollister transferred after his freshman year to UCF, where he moved to tight end but this spring was medically disqualified.
Last year wideout Michael Young was on the cusp of a breakout season, but a preseason shoulder injury sidelined him almost all of September, and in October he left the program. He is now a graduate transfer at Cincinnati, where he has two years of eligibility remaining.
Finally, defensive end Kofi Wardlow might have been a starter at a lot of other schools (he originally committed to Maryland), but his position group has been extremely deep during his time, which helped limit his playing time.
That’s seven out of 21.
It doesn’t apply in all cases, but in this particular recruiting class it has through the first three years.
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