3-2-1: Notre Dame Baseball Observations, Questions & Prediction
Even after a 10-0 blowout loss to Boston College (17-21, 6-18 ACC) on Friday, No. 8 Notre Dame (21-8, 18-8) managed to bounce back and win yet another ACC series by taking both games in a doubleheader on Saturday.
Notre Dame's 18 conference wins represent a program-high since joining the ACC for the 2014 baseball season, and the Irish still have three conference series left to play.
The Irish then turned around three days later and defeated Valparaiso (8-22, 3-9 MAC) for a second time on Tuesday, 8-7.
Next up is a three-game ACC series against North Carolina (20-18, 14-13) at Notre Dame’s Frank Eck Stadium. The Tar Heels are no longer a perennial power in college baseball, but their roster still has plenty of talent.
The first game of the series is Friday at 5 p.m. ET on the ACC Network Extra.
3 Observations
The Irish put together an unprecedented comeback against Boston College
After winning the first game of a doubleheader against Boston College on Saturday 5-2, the series was tied at one game apiece.
In the rubber match, the Irish found themselves down big early, trailing 9-0 after the fifth inning.
In the top of the seventh, Notre Dame scored its first run of the game after Zack Prajzner crossed home plate on a Spencer Myers ground out.
Then, in the top of the eighth, the Irish experienced an unprecedented offensive explosion, scoring 12 runs in the inning and turning an eight-run deficit into a 13-9 lead.
“In my 20 years of coaching and I don't know how many years of playing, I never had seen anything like that,” said Notre Dame head coach Link Jarrett. “I'm just so proud of the toughness of the kids, the coaching staff, the stick-with-it-ness of the group throughout, because it was really a tough couple of hours going into the seventh, eighth and ninth inning of that last game.
“Long day. Unbelievable. Unthinkable.”
In the eighth inning, Niko Kavadas hit a solo home run, his 15th of the season, and Prajzner added a three-run bomb, his fourth. The rest of the runs were manufactured off of timely hitting, a few walks and Jack Brannigan stealing home.
In the bottom of the eighth and ninth innings, Notre Dame held Boston College scoreless to pick up the win and the series victory.
“I've seen us win games in every form and fashion you can think of,” Jarrett said. “As you witness these unique moments, it really builds confidence that the possibilities are endless for what the group can do.”
This victory, in fact, has Jarrett believing his team could be in the midst of a special season.
“There are some unique twists that occur that make these elite championship-type teams believe a little bit more,” he said. “We're good, but then you start to think that the karma and the vibe and the personality of the team, and it takes on a whole different meaning when you see some of these things transpire.”
Spencer Myers emerges from his early season slump
All season, it seemed to be a matter of when, not if, Irish center fielder Spencer Myers would emerge from his slump.
After leading the team in hitting in each of the last two seasons, Myers struggled out of the gate. A month into the season, and Notre Dame’s leadoff hitter was batting a measly .171.
Since then his batting average has steadily risen, but he finally had the breakout week fans have been waiting for. In Notre Dame’s last four games, the switch-hitting Myers went 9-17 at the plate (.529) with four walks and a trio of stolen bases.
“Myers is such a fun base runner,” Jarrett said. “He's just a fun guy to have on base.”
The biggest improvement has been his ability to hit from the left side of the plate. After struggling with his mechanics, Myers is now driving the ball on a line consistently and shooting the ball to left field.
Notre Dame is a consensus top-10 program
Notre Dame climbed into the top 10 of Baseball America’s poll weeks ago, but it took a little bit longer for some of the other rankings to follow suit.
As of Monday, Perfect Game, D1 Baseball and USA Today (the last of these holdouts) all consider Notre Dame to be deserving of a top-10 designation, with Baseball America still ranking the Irish the highest at No. 6 overall.
The National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association and Collegiate Baseball have Notre Dame at ranked No. 13 and No. 13, respectively, but those polls don’t carry as much weight as the other four, in my opinion.
With just under a month left of ACC play, the Irish are in an excellent position to host a regional in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
D1 Baseball just updated their Projected Field of 64, which has Notre Dame as the No. 5 overall seed. According to the projection, the Nos. 2-4 seeds in the South Bend region would be Michigan (2), Indiana State (3) and Ball State (4).
The Irish, of course, need a strong finish to make this projection a reality.
2 Questions
Will the Notre Dame defense return to form?
For the majority of the season, Notre Dame has been one of the best defensive teams in the country. Yet over the course of the last four games, Notre Dame has given up 28 total runs, an average of seven per contest.
This is somewhat concerning because their last four games were against Boston College and Valparaiso, which have a combined 25-43 (.368) record. Before facing the Eagles and the Crusaders this past week, Notre Dame was allowing just 3.92 runs per game.
The cause of Notre Dame’s defensive dip is two-fold.
Notre Dame still ranks third in the ACC with a 4.00 team ERA. But in their last four games, the Irish are giving up 5.75 earned runs per game, including nine in game one against Boston College.
In the field, the Irish also averaged an error per game against Boston College and Valpo. After leading the ACC and the NCAA in fielding percentage for much of the season, Notre Dame is now No. 2 and No. 3 with a fielding percentage of .986.
Is this a drastic change? Of course not, but Notre Dame is trending in the wrong direction.
If the Irish are to finish the season strong, defensive lapses must be minimized.
Can the Irish sweep North Carolina in back-to-back seasons?
Less than a week before the COVID-19 pandemic cut the 2020 college baseball season short, Notre Dame swept North Carolina on the road. At the time, it was considered a huge upset, especially because it was the first time the Tar Heels had been swept at home in the ACC since 2015.
Fast forward to today, and Notre Dame is the heavy favorite heading into the upcoming weekend, whereas North Carolina is fighting to stay above .500.
When it comes to ACC team statistics, the Tar Heels are behind the Irish in hitting, pitching and defense. North Carolina has also struggled on the road this season, losing nine of their 14 games away from Chapel Hill.
Notre Dame will need to play much better than they did this past weekend against Boston College, but a second sweep of North Carolina in as many years feels possible.
1 Prediction
Notre Dame will obliterate their record for regular-season ACC wins by finishing 24-11
My last two predictions had to do with Notre Dame’s upcoming ACC series, and I swung and missed on both.
So for this week, I’m going to make more of a long-term prognostication and project that Notre Dame will finish with a 24-11 regular-season record in the ACC. Notre Dame’s previous ACC best record came in 2015 when the Irish finished 17-13 in conference.
This prediction is predicated on Notre Dame playing all nine of its remaining regular-season conference games.
It’s also worth noting that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ACC actually bumped the number of conference series a team plays from 10 to 12. So if Notre Dame does win 24 games this season, that will be hard to top in the future, assuming the ACC returns to its regular 30-game conference schedule.
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