3-2-1: Notre Dame At The Halfway Point
* Vince DeDario contributed to the reporting and analysis included in this article
We're halfway through Notre Dame's 2019 season and the Irish still have an outside shot at the College Football Playoffs, even if they don't technically control their own destiny.
While it's impossible to tell what happens from here, it much more likely Notre Dame has a strong finish to the season, as it did last year. But there's also the unlikely possibility that the Irish collapse as they did in 2014 and lose five of their last seven games.
Only time will tell, but that didn't stop Vince DeDario and me from having our opinions
THREE OBSERVATIONS
Notre Dame Defense Making Plays Behind the Line of Scrimmage
The Irish are currently tied for seventh in the country in tackles for a loss per game in the FBS with an average of 8.7. That’s three more per game compared to last year when Notre Dame averaged 5.65 TFLs.
What’s even more impressive is that the Irish finished 2018 with a total of 73.5 TFLs in a full regular season and a bowl game. In just six contests in 2019, they already have 52, and Notre Dame is on pace for about 113 counting a bowl game, which the program needs just one more win to be eligible for.
Much of this improvement is from the starting linebackers. Asmar Bilal, Drew White and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah have combined for 17.5 TFLs thus far. Last year, the three starters accounted for 21.5 for the whole season, with Te’von Coney leading the position group with 9.5.
All three 2019 starters are on pace to beat that this year.
Despite the losing defensive tackle Jerry Tillery’s 9.5 TFL from 2018, the 2019 interior is also primed to outproduce last year.
In total, the interior of the defensive line produced just 14 TFLs all of last year. The 2019 interior already has 9.5 TFLs and is on pace for about 20.5.
The Irish are Just Getting Healthy
Notre Dame is in a unique position. As a team, it should actually be at its healthiest at the half-way point, especially on defense.
In fall camp, tight end Cole Kmet and wide receiver Michael Young went down with broken collarbones. Then, in the first quarter against Louisville, starting running back Jafar Armstrong.
All three are back and, with the idle week, should be closer to full strength.
It’s also expected that defensive back Shaun Crawford, who dislocated his elbow and tore multiple ligaments against Virginia, will be back for the night game against the Wolverine.
The only real loss has been backup defensive end Daelin Hayes, but that hole has been largely mitigated by the emergence of Jamir Jones, who has a sack in each of the last three games.
Jones, of course, was going to play in just four games in 2019 and redshirt. That’s no longer going to happen.
In the Top 10 All Year
Notre Dame began the season ranked No. 9 in the AP Poll, and the Irish have yet to drop out of the top 10 since, even after the loss to Georgia in week four.
That means the program has a chance to do something that it hasn’t done since 1990: stay in the top 10 for the entirety of a season.
That year, Notre Dame started the year at No. 1 and, despite losing three games over the course of the season, the Irish never dropped below No. 8 in the polls. It was the second year in a row that they stayed in the top 10 all year.
In order to accomplish this feat again, Notre Dame will likely need to finish the regular season 11-1 and, at the very least, be competitive in their bowl game.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. Can offensive line move from very good to elite by the end of the year?
The offensive line was expected to be one of the strengths of the team going into this season. Four returning starters and a former four-star tackle getting the start at center. It is safe to say that the line under performed at the beginning of the season. They were not getting push and they were not firing off the ball on a consistent basis. Since then there has been steady improvement from that group culminating in a 308 yard rushing performance against USC.
The line is ranked as the top pass protection group in the country by Pro Football Focus and has been elite in that category all season. The run game is where the line was struggling early on. They were catching in the run game as opposed to firing off the ball and imposing their will as you should when running the ball. Since the Virginia game the Irish have reversed that trend and are playing as a unit and moving defensive lines off the ball. The real question is can they continue with this ascension in the second half of the season? Elite teams have elite offensive lines and this team has the possibility to be that but they have not completely shown it yet. They have every chance to become that unit the remainder of the season.
2. Will the safeties get back to playing at an elite level?
The one thing on the defense that was a known commodity was the play of the Alohi Gilman and Jalen Elliott at the safety position. They came into the season as a heralded duo that would garner All American status by year’s end. I am not saying they have played poorly but I think it is safe to say they have not lived up to the expectations that were put on them in the preseason.
Gilman has been very disruptive in the run game but has had a tendency to come down too fast and too out of control to be effective. Sometimes he dives at the feet of the ball carrier missing completely. In his haste to come down and make plays in the run game he has had his eyes in the back field and missed receivers in the pass game allowing them to get behind him for big plays as he did in the USC game last week. Elliott has been inconsistent in the passing game. He has taken poor routes to receivers and his fundamentals have been lacking at times. He got completely turned around on a play against USC and allowed the receiver to get wide open.
With all this said, Elliott and Gilman both have elite talent and we have seen it play out at times this year and last year as well. The bye week comes at a great time for this pair to step back and really assess their play up to this point and get back to basics. They do not need to carry this defense on their shoulders as they may have thought early on in the season. The emergence if Kyle Hamilton is a blessing to the safety position as it can take pressure off Gilman and Elliott and allow them to play fast and loose but within themselves. The next six games will tell the tale as to whether Gilman and Elliott can get back to their earlier form and take this defense to the next level.
One Prediction
Notre Dame will finish 11-1 and be in contention of a CFP spot.
Notre Dame will be favored in every game they have remaining on their schedule and to be honest it won’t really be all that close. Their trip to Ann Arbor next week will be the closest game in terms of predicting point spreads prior to the game. They still have some things to prove at all levels of this team but the fact of the matter is this team is at the very least a top 10 caliber team with CFP potential and time to show that potential. The loss to Georgia was not great and Georgia’s loss to South Carolina was worse but it showed in a nutshell the kind of chaos that Notre Dame will need to be in contention for one of those final four coveted spots. Loses will happen around Notre Dame and if they do not win out it will be a severe disappointment. They have front line talent and depth to match. Not only will they be in the discussion at the end of the season but they will be in the discussion for seasons to come based on recent and future recruiting classes.
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