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3-2-1: Irish Observations, Questions and Prediction Against USC

In just two days, Notre Dame's biggest rival will travel to South Bend for a matchup that Irish fans circle on their calendars every year.

While USC is having another somewhat down year at 3-2, the Trojans are still very talented and should not be taken lightly.

USC wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (8) celebrating a touchdown last season (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
USC wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (8) celebrating a touchdown last season (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
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At the same time, they're also performing very poorly in certain facets of the game.

Many of the strengths and weaknesses of this USC team are covered in the observations, questions and prediction below.

THREE OBSERVATIONS

1. USC Wide Receivers as Good as Advertised

On Monday, Notre Dame Head Coach Brian Kelly referred to the Trojan’s three starting wide receivers as the best group the Irish will see all year, and he’s not lying.

All three receivers have a different skillset and are explosive in their own way.

For instance, in USC’s win over then-ranked No. 10 Utah, 6-feet-4-inch tall senior receiver Michael Pittman caught 10 passes for 232 yards a touchdown.

In the first two games of the year, it was six-foot-two-inch Tyler Vaughns who lead the team in receiving yards with 150 against Fresno State and 106 against Stanford.

Typically on the field with them in the slot is the six-foot-one-inch speedster, sophomore Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Collectively in five games, these three have caught 90 passes for 1,153 yards. That accounts for roughly 79 percent of USC’s yards through the air in the team’s pass-happy offense.

They also produced at a high level last year. In the Notre Dame-USC game in Southern California at the end of last season, all three had more than 90 yards receiving.

For some perspective, only four times has an Irish pass catcher gone over the 90-yard mark in a game this season, and one of those came from tight end Cole Kmet against Georgia.

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2. Book Should Have The Confidence To Let It Rip

As Blue and Gold Illustrated’s Lou Somogyi noted this week, turnovers will play a huge factor in this game, but in the sense that it’s a huge advantage for Notre Dame. The Irish are currently second in the FBS in turnover margin, while the Trojans are 122nd.

More importantly for Ian Book, USC has only picked off two passes all year.

Per Ty Hildenbrandt of the Solid Verbal Podcast, the USC defense is also 90th in the nation in passing plays of 10 yards or more allowed.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, is tied for 18th in the country in interceptions thrown with two, with both of them coming against Georgia.

That doesn’t mean Book should throw the ball with reckless abandonment, but that should provide him with a little reassurance that he can let the ball go and not second guess his decisions to push the ball down the field.

Overall, this USC defense is about average against the pass. The Trojans currently rank 61st in pass efficiency defense, with a rating of 128.36. This is much better than Louisville (91st), New Mexico (123rd) and Bowling Green (130th), but it’s also way behind Georgia (20th) and Virginia (33).


3. Penalty Flags May Fly

Both teams are in the bottom half of all college football in penalty flags per game.

USC is tied for 97th in penalties per game with 7.2 a total of 36 on the season. Yet, in USC’s last two games, both against ranked opponents, the Trojans were penalized 11 and eight times.

Notre Dame is tied for 73rd with 6.6 penalties per game, and that's after the Irish only had one penalty last weekend in an easy victory over Bowling Green. The penalty was a false start called on Robert Hainsey that may have been because of a late snap.

This means fans shouldn’t be surprised to see plenty of flags in this game.

Oddly enough, the more flags that are thrown, the better it could be for the Irish. While both are in the bottom half of flags per game, Notre Dame is actually in the top 15 in the fewest penalty yards per game (14th) with 42.6. USC is 113th at 74 penalty yards per game.

TWO QUESTIONS

1. How Will Notre Dame’s Secondary Handle the Elite USC Wide Receivers?

One of the biggest aspects of Saturday’s game that I will be watching is the matchup between the Irish secondary and USC’s wide receiving corps.

USC boasts two former five-star receivers in St. Brown and Vaughns and a potential second-round NFL draft choice in Pittman.

To make things just that much more interesting is the fact that Shaun Crawford is still out with torn ligaments in his elbow. I expect Notre Dame to try and get as much pressure on true freshman Kedon Slovis with the front six while really challenging the wide receivers at the line of scrimmage with the corners. Clark Lea will throw multiple looks at Slovis, but I believe the most effective will be a cover two.

It will allow the corners to not allow a free release by the receivers and play very physical with them knowing they have safety help over the top. I also look forward to the continued progression of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah in coverage as he will be tested in this game.


2. How Will Missed Tackles Effect This Game?

It has been well documented that USC is not a quality tackling team. They have missed almost 60 tackles in just five games and over 20 in the Utah game alone.

The linebacking corps has been the most to blame since teams are realizing that they cannot run up the middle with much success against the Trojans so they are going outside.

There have been numerous opportunities for the linebackers to make plays but they have not done so. It has also been well documented by Andrew Mentock of BGI that the Notre Dame safeties did not have a very good game when it came to tackling against Bowling Green last Saturday. Senior safety Alohi Gilman missed four tackles himself. Jalen Elliott was not credited with a missed tackle but again, Mentock pointed out misses by him as well.

I have faith that the Notre Dame defense will clean up their tackling woes, but I do not see that being the case for USC. This will be a major factor in the game Saturday night.

ONE Prediction

1. Notre Dame Blows Out USC

It is always hard to predict that one team will blow out another especially when it is a rivalry game where both teams boast 11 national titles and have played for 90 years. The more digging I do into this matchup the more I see holes in this USC team. It starts at the top with Clay Helton’s job uncertainty and goes all the way to true freshman Kedon Slovis coming off of a concussion.

Even though it was against an undermanned Bowling Green team I believe the offense took a step forward and they will get the services of Jafar Armstrong and Lawrence Keys back. I think the steps that Ian Book made were very positive last week and I expect him to continue his growth moving forward. The real crux of my decision to predict the Irish winning big is the play of the defense.

Their pass efficiency defense is 12th in the nation. Their run defense is 61st in the country, and it gets better and better each game. Not to mention their turnover margin is +2 per game and +10 overall. Match those numbers with USC who is 91st in rushing offense, -1.4 in turnover margin with -7 on the year and 10 interceptions.

Then we can throw in the fact that they have almost 60 missed tackles on the year, and I think it is a recipe for a big night for Notre Dame.

* Vince DeDario contributed to the reporting and analysis included in this article

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